The Future of Space-Age Risk Management: Transformative and Integrative Risk Management! [BOOK] By © Copyright 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini (AA) ─ All Rights Reserved Worldwide ─ « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini »
(An Independent, Solemn, Most Thorough and Copyrighted Answer. Thoroughness, hereunder, will be then redefined by several orders of magnitude and without a fail).
What is a White Swan?
The White Swan Proven Theory ─ only concerning organizations of a rational-type structure such as corporations, start-ups by entrepreneurs, coalitions, consortia, joint ventures, governments, non-governmental organizations, international organizations, supranational organizations, armed forces, charities, not-for-profit corporations, partnerships, cooperatives, universities, various types of political organizations, semi-public-agencies, hybrid organizations (acting in public and private sectors), voluntary associations, clubs and religious organizations ─ puts forward that, although and sometimes disproportionately high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events are mostly unpredictable, yet a visionary and savvy organization can, anyway, make unprecedented and auspicious early-on preparations to address huge potential disruptions and downside futures through problem-solving «Transformative and Integrative Risk Management» methodology, also known as TAIRM.
Through thorough application of Transformative and Integrative Risk Management (the exact opposite of insurance-based risk unmagement), White Swan can be hereunder explained abundantly.
The author (a manager, consultant, researcher and strategist into beyond-insurance risk management and scientific futuring) has a sufficient tangible number of unimpeachable actual corporate cases, attained through 30-year of in-the-field professional experience, of outright success fundamentally coping with disproportionately high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events.
The hardcore now starts:
THIS WORK ADDRESSES ORGANIZATIONAL SETTINGS (RATIONAL-TYPE ONES) ONLY, NEVER PROFESSIONAL OR PERSONAL ENVIRONMENTS AT ALL.
On October 09, 2013 I was asked a simple yet intriguing question at the right time and place.
A management consultant in Peterborough, United Kingdom presented this query to me, the author. His name is David Shaw. [228].
Questions and matters to be addressed here include:
1.- What is change?
2.- What is management?
3.- What is change management?
4.- Why present-day age is now different?
5.- What is the historic perspective applied to current management?
6.- What is it meant by Dynamic Driving Forces?
7.- What is a risk, both positive and negative?
8.- What are futures, both upside and downside?
9.- What is risk management?
10.- What is risk unmanagement?
11.- What is a White Swan?
12.- What is a leader and a manager?
13.- How does one define technology?
14.- What is insurance?
15.- What is beyond-insurance risk management?
16.- What is Transformative and Integrative Risk Management?
17.- What is scientific futuring?
18.- What is scenario-planning methodology?
19.- How Quality Assurance and Continuous Improvement Don't Equate to Risk Management?
20.- Practically, How do managers and entrepreneurs achieve sustainable success?
21.- What is non-theological applied management?
22.- What is Organizational Integral Protection?
23.- Common Sense Versus Scientific Knowledge?
24.- Out-Of-The-Box Thinking versus Disruptional Creative Thinking?
25.- What is the current and rampant progression of science and technology?
26.- Solving persistently grave organizational problems through Rocket Science?
27.- What is retrospection and what is prospection?
28.- Quantitative Analyzes Versus Qualitative Analyzes?
29.- How far can we get with algorithm-based calculations of risks and futures?
30.- What is strategy and its limitations?
31.- What are new management skills to be developed in the as-of-now future?
32.- What are problem-solving approaches for?
33.- What are adversarial truths and technical truths?
34.- The Technological Singularity Versus the Disruptional Singularity?
35.- How NASA, DARPA and Royal Dutch Shell are redefining management?
36.- What is Space-Age Risk Management?
37.- What are the name of the reputable organizations instituting all of the above?
David's question was then exactly,
"...Andres, from your work on the future which management skills need to be developed? Classically the management role is about planning, organizing, leading and controlling. With the changes coming in the future, what's your view on how this management mix needs to change and adapt? … "
Probably, and thanks to the preceding question, the interview or exchange has hereby grown into a copyrighted book.
Now you have such a bridged volume. Bridged volume does never equate to the unabridged illustrated version.
The unabridged and illustrated tome is awaiting a publisher to come forward and do the proper thing.
Incidentally:
This proprietary book may be reproduced for noncommercial purposes if it is copied in its entirety, including this notice.
Please recall that “...if it is copied in its entirety, including this notice....”
This exploration is the most thorough, deep and independent one. Instantly, you have been warned. If a better one is available, go get it.
To exercise greater emphasis on some parts, I will use partial capitalization of words often.
As David formulated this interesting question to me and given that I want to claim my rights on the present comment and book, I will be using first-person language frequently.
Accordingly, Jewish scholar and Rabbi Hillel concludes, “...If I am not for myself, then who will be for me? And if I am only for myself, than what am I? And if not now, when?...”
Extensive quotations and citations will also be used. Massive insights by third parties and the author will be available.
The author has done and always will be doing his “ … homework ...” In no way this work is a substitute for doing your own reasoning, studying and researching.
Everyone should do his / her own homework by himself / herself.
My alleged “ … homework ...” is primarily done through learning theoretical, practical and empirical lessons from direct practical and intimate execution of and involvement with management and also by massive, perpetual research engaged by my own self for Life.
I love developing own ideas, their detailed plans, theories and proto-theories and marshaled them into in-the-field problem solving.
I will share my insight and experience as an adviser, studier, learner, thinker, researcher, strategist, practitioner and seminal speaker of forward-looking management both in theoretical and practical contexts.
Whatever I reflect here is a conscientious, empirical, independent and solemn POV (Point of View).
“ …Solemnity is characterized or marked by seriousness or sincerity …. or profound …. earnest ….”
This POV addresses practical and structural solutions, not onerous quick fixes. Among other important themes, this POV also deals with process, content and context.
Partial solutions are inconsequential while total solutions are indispensable and, hence, the optimal pathway hereby suggested.
THIS POV WILL BE COMMUNICATED UNAMBIGUOUSLY AND EMPHATICALLY.
The author NEVER does dogmas. Everyone else has the greatest right to having his / her own opinion(s) as well. No problem with that!
Conversely, if you want to access to my intellectual manifesto, a summation is here:
With the purpose to remain authentic and genuine with my intellectual manifesto, I am against:
1.- Ignorance.
2.- Sloppy, emotional thinking.
3.- Fashionable thinking.
4.- Within-style thinking.
5.- Ideal-based rational.
6.- Instant-gratification thought process.
You must interrelate or correlate and connect the dots of every aspect that is included in this independent POV.
Everything that the author will share applies for large and small for-profit and nonprofit organizations (including start-ups), both in the U.S. and around the world.
By the way, it is really valued that in dealing with the practice of management you haven't divorce said practice from its leadership component.
BY KEEPING “ … MANAGEMENT ...” AND “ … LEADERSHIP … ” INDIVISIBLY INTEGRATED, YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY JUDICIOUS.
Leadership without management is like a Mirage without a runway.
There are many authors placing a huge divide between leadership and management when you cannot apply your leadership outside of a management context.
They are gravely mistaken. Management and leadership cannot be separated and they must always be exercised in a monolithic unison.
I will give you, as well, some primary view on the historic perspective I have found regarding current-day future-driven management.
I really believe that the historic perspective is a sine qua non.
Notwithstanding, the past and the present are never a script for the future.
And, for instance, Stuart A. Copans asserted, “...Study the past if you would divine the future...”
And Edmund Burke pointed out, “...You can never plan [retrospectively] the future by the past...” Brackets are of the author.
To set the stage properly, I will start with an enlightening quote by Albert Einstein.
“...The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created then...”
Or, it could be better noted:
“...The significant problems we face [today] cannot be solved [in the future] at the same level of thinking we were at when we created then [in the past]...” Brackets are of the author.
Conversely:
What are the frequent problems and challenges (including existential ones) that we frequently encounter in managing risks optimally? For example and briefly:
1.- Corruption and Malfeasance.
2.- Radical ignorance.
3.- Learned ignorance.
4.- Dysfunctional knowledge.
5.- Overspecialization and superspecialization.
6.- Usage of embedded-in-the-past notions and assumptions (obsoledge). Obsoledge equates to obsolete knowledge as this term was coined by Alvin Toffler.
7.- Not thinking in series (not simultaneously).
8.- Dismissal of thinking of the entire Whole.
9.- Inability to learn to unlearn.
10.- Gray areas and biases.
11.- Lack of thorough and lucid practical definition and demarcation of the system to be addressed and its boundaries.
12.- Incomplete reasoning and thinking.
One other thing that must now be considered is a primordial axiom that is instrumental and widely considered here.
That is, “...everything is somewhat related to everything else ...”
Any management endeavor must consider this maxim seriously at all times.
Please allow me some leeway to give some historic professional antecedents that will greatly prove useful in dealing with this work. Ensuing.
Before being interested in applied scientific futuring and beyond-insurance risk management, I was college trained in "...General Insurance Management..." (U.S.)
I also took serious university classes on engineering and technology (Canada, Venezuela).
Technology is also, at many times, synonymous with the term “ ...task ...”
To this purpose and furthering the present work:
“...From Nostradamus to Alvin Toffler, individuals and organizations have long been obsessed with trying to see the future. The goal is to somehow get advanced warning of ‘ ...what will be ...’...” [64]
In order to do the prior, it is important to institute advanced scenario planning. Through it, the reader will get White Swans only.
As successfully posited and implemented by RAND Corporation' and Hudson Institute's Dr. Strangelove (Herman Khan) and Royal Dutch Shell's Pierre Wack, the actual practical effectiveness of scientifically-driven scenario planning can be considerably improved yet, as it done in Transformative and Integrative Risk Management (the exact opposite of insurance-based risk unmagement).
Furthermore:
Objectives expressed in specific numbers (numerical data), to be accomplished through a detailed plan, can be called goals.
And goals expressed in unambiguous narrative (narrative data), to be accomplished through a detailed plan, can be called objectives. Global corporations use both integrally.
Hence:
Working with the second largest oil group in the world (Citgo's PDVSA, with 54,000 active employees and 210,000 eligible dependents. PDVSA is Citgo's parent company), that group wanted me to only institute beyond-insurance risk management as it is posited here. What later became Transformative and Integrative Risk Management (TAIRM).
Question: Who was Risk Management's Practitioner #1?
Once someone told me a spoken and lose account about the item above. Using my own words, I attempted to reconstruct the story here:
“...Moses allegedly wrote some 3,500 years ago a seemingly parable as per an unknown source, [that] ‘ … Every new house must have a guard rail around the edge of the flat rooftop in order to prevent anyone from falling off and precluding inhabitants from bringing guilt to both the householders and neighbors...'....” [226]. Brackets are of the author.
You see, when these organizations' executives (from PDVSA, Citgo, other petroleum corporations, Toyota, Mitsubishi Motors and other global corporations) were to incur in a loss (potential disruption), it did not suffice to them to have the indemnity payment from the insurance and reinsurance pool.
On January 1982 I officially started serious thinking about "...beyond-insurance risk management..."
And since then all the way throughout this date. Conversely, insurance-based risk management is the old guard while beyond-insurance risk management is the vanguard. Some reason will be offer here.
For illustration purposes and just using one narrow self-explanatory instance, please check out how insurance and reinsurance habitually opine and operate, say, the following:
“... [Underwriters have the] '...preference for insuring against probable small losses...' ─ at the expense of the less probable but larger impact ones ...” [227]. Brackets are of the author.
The entire account of the paragraph above is next:
“...However, [Dr. Paul] Slovic [, PhD. at http://bit.ly/1l697f0] and his colleagues found [at the University of the president of Decision Research], in insurance patterns, neglect of these highly improbable events in people's insurance purchases. The call is the '...preference for insuring against probable small losses...' ─ at the expense of the less probable but larger impact ones ...” Brackets are of the author. [227].
For illustrative purposes:
Let me start by telling the reader that Optimal Risk Management (the exact opposite of insurance-based risk unmagement), at all times, equates to Optimal Management Per Se.
Ergo and at the outset, allow me to offer a definition of Risk.
“... Risk is the quantitative or qualitative expression of possible loss that considers both the probability that an event will occur and the consequences of that event … and/or the likeliness of injury, harm, damage, disruption or loss multiplied by its potential magnitude ...”
A brief sample of what Risk entails is now offer:
1.- Academicians' and Scholars' Trickery
2.- Bankruptcy
3.- Competition
4.- Currency Collapse
5.- Disease
6.- Earthquake
7.- Energy Shortage
8.- Existential Risks (and/or beyond Global Catastrophic Risks)
9.- Espionage (Industrial, Political and Geopolitical)
10.- Explosion
11.- Fire
12.- Flood
13.- Fraud
14.- Geopolitical Conflict
15.- Hurricane
16.- Illegal Immigration
17.- Managerial Malfeasance
18.- Nuclear War
19.- Oil-Drilling Spill
20.- Political Chicanery
21.-Political Reversal
22.- Robbery
23.- Scientific and Pseudo-Scientific Sophistry
24.- Severe Weather
25.- Terrorism (homegrown and foreign)
26.- Volcano Eruption
27.- Others.
Accordingly, I will give you, likewise, a definition of Risk Management.
“...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management (TAIRM) comprises of all activities and initiatives required to seize the optimum degree of risk elimination, mitigation, modulation or control within the constraints of operational effectiveness, time, and cost, attained through the specific, systemic and systematic application of management, scientific, engineering and mathematical principles throughout all phases of system operation ...”
Let us address the word “ … system ...” (the entirety of the Whole).
Whether the boundaries of a designated system (ample conception) are porous or not, blurred or not, defined or not, fluid or not, the beyond-insurance risk manager must radically, structurally and continuously tackle said system optimally.
TAIRM exhaustively copes, early on, with intended and unintended consequences within and beyond determinism.
By “ … early on ...” it is meant: “ … Before the beginning of a course of events, chiefly those events least expected ...”
TAIRM is only instituted with the express purpose of solving complex problems in all practicality.
Complication and complexity are never synonymous!
Here is why:
“ … Complication is a confused or intricate relationship of elements, parts and/or subsystems …. A condition, event, etc, that is confused …. A problem arising as a consequence of another problem …. Something that introduces, usually unexpectedly, a difficulty, problem, change, etc. …. A concurrent problem that aggravates the original problem …. It is a difficulty or confusion stemming from the concurrence and happening of diverse things ...”
And then:
“ … Complexity is the state or quality of being intricate …. Consists of interconnected or interwoven parts; composite …. Composed of two or more units …. Involved or intricate, as in structure …. A whole composed of interconnected or interwoven or interrelated parts …. It entails diverse elements ...”
This is significant:
Interrelationships and linkages that are both subtle and discrete and those that are soft (mild) and dramatic (wild). All of the preceding can, too, be both covert, overt and/or ignored.
And now:
For illustrative purposes, the Characteristics of the Systems Approach by Transformative and Integrative Risk Management (the exact opposite of insurance-based risk unmagement) include:
1) Methodical,
2) Objective,
3) Quantitative or Measurable,
4) Analytical,
5) Subsystem Interdependence,
6) Parallel Analysis of Elements,
7) Inputs and Outputs in Clear Language and
8) Self-Containment / Closed Loop.
Ergo,
Important to note: Many experts and even scientists, scholars and futurologists speak about empirical management with the sole perspective of unimplemented theoretical notions (that is: with too many unanswered questions and unlearned lessons never realized, seized, defined or explained by their own selves).
BUT THE MATTER IS, HAVE THEY REALLY EXERCISED THE ACTUAL RESPONSIBILITY OF DIRECTLY MANAGING A LARGE, GLOBAL ENTERPRISE (ORGANIZATION) SUCCESSFULLY?
WHAT EXACTLY IS THE APPLIED EXPERIENCE IN THE FIELD THAT THEY POSSES?
QUESTION: What PRECISELY have said scientists, scholars and futurologists directly manage in the practical theater of operations?
Allegedly:
“... Theater of Operation is hereby included to mean the four-dimensional coordinate system and beyond it, in which organization's physical (tangible) and non-physical (intangible) events are located ...”
How, in the world, can they speak with veritable fundamentals about practical management solutions?
What are the accurate particulars of their proven track record audited by prominent external and independent non-theoretical scientific incumbents? Really?
QUESTION: In all truth, What are, point-blankly, their actual applied methodologies?
Let's see an example of a large misconception.
A West-Coast “...Global Futurist ...” (so called) states that organizations and people must have "...the capacity to adapt and learn now how to prepare for risks..."
According to him, How exactly does one institute his futuristic "...risk management..."?
Then, he suggests that by a) Risk Monitoring, b) Risk Analysis, c) Risk Sensing and d) Risk Management as they are a function of Strategic Risk Forecasting. Indeed!
What is the alleged walk-through to this futurist's flawed opinion? This “ … Mexican enchilada ...” by the above West-Coast Futurist is not a methodology and doesn't even embody a form of primitive risk management at all.
Why it is a messy enchilada?
As he frequently mentions and randomly and loosely elaborates pertaining to the terms “...risk...” and “ ...risk management ...” in overly-abundant ways, he outright fails to clearly define the following:
a) Risk Monitoring,
b) Risk Analysis,
c) Risk Sensing, and
d) Risk Management.
His presentation is available at http://lnkd.in/bV_Rp4s
There are many futurists (rather, futurologists) and other scientists addressing the “...risk management...” unrealized talk without having a direct, practical experience in administering risks through beyond-insurance risk management and TAIRM.
What precisely is the most accurate proven track record they posses?
In my professional case, it is in place the management of the 75% of the risks by the assets and employees (and the eligible dependents of said employees) of huge industrial groups such as PDVSA (Citgo), Toyota, Mitsubishi Motors and many other global institutions discussed thereafter.
How can one gauge the indefinite limits of such global corporations? By a brief example:
These global corporations have their own private universities and R&D&I labs and other facilities.
The preceding lab have wondrous in-all-practicality frame of references in which to enforce uncanny operation-reality-checked challenges, problems, progress, breakthroughs, discoveries, benefits, opportunities, efficiencies and progress.
By way of example and as many others, GE has its own famous Crotonville corporate educational facility, buoyantly mentioned by Jack Welch and Jeffrey Immelt.
Citgo's PDVSA, believe or it not, had a living miniaturized microcosm of Earth as of July of 1996.
I had the official visit of some U.S. executives considering entering a joint venture with my company regarding this petroleum group when we got the invitation to see this tiny planet, used by PDVSA to measure actual ecological impacts.
These privately held labs and educational organizations compete and sometime supersedes those amazing institutions by the prestigious Ivy League universities.
Coming back to the main point:
This long professional and practical experience extends in the fields of turnkey applied:
management, corporate planning and risk management consultation, strategy and associated services with major organizations and corporations extends to more than thirty years.
I have instituted all-encompassing beyond-insurance risk management (TAIRM) to more than a dozen of global institutions of unparallelled reputation hereunder.
Many of these institutions, including the World Bank, have issued letters of reference of the services provided.
Whenever I speak hereby about how I practice “...risk management...”, I will only be referring to scientifically-driven beyond-insurance risk management and never ever be referring to financially-driven risk management.
In all and all, insurance is an expensive quick fix while Transformative and Integrative Risk Management and beyond-insurance risk management, in general, are a cost-effective cardinal solution.
TAIRM implements turnkey, essential beyond-insurance risk management solutions.
The word “...system...” is here used in its ample meaning and does not hereby refer to computer systems.
The definition of system ─ that I have researched, meditated and pondered about ─ is this:
“...System comprises the whole compounded of several parts, members elements, components and subsystems, a group of interacting, interrelated, or interdependent elements forming a complex whole, an organized set of interrelated ideas or principles, a naturally occurring group of objects or phenomena, a condition of harmonious and orderly interaction, and an organized and coordinated method; a procedure. System is a set of interacting or interdependent components forming an integrated whole or a set of elements (often called 'components') and dynamic relationships which are different from relationships of the set or its elements to other elements or sets. Systems unite and put together elements, components and subsystems toward the entire whole..."
And:
The definition of omniscience that I have researched, meditated and pondered about is this:
“... Applied non-theological omniscience consists of having total knowledge; knowing everything, having infinite knowledge, the current state of knowledge, the ability to know anything that one chooses to know and can be known and actually knowing everything that can be known. Synonyms to omniscience include panshopy, polyhistory and all-knowingness ...”
Speaking of applied omniscience and by way of example:
Deng Xiaoping's quote: “ … It doesn't matter whether the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice ...”
Paraphrasing the thought above, the reader gets:
“ … It doesn't matter whether the cat [problem-solving methodology] is black [insurance-based risk management] or white [beyond-insurance risk management], as long as it catches [terminates or, at least, optimally modulates] mice [hazards and any operational downside futures]...” Brackets are of the author.
Let us consider: «Universal Knowledge» vis-à-vis Omniscience:
“... In support of the liberal notion that the knowledges that constitute the university have no ‘use’ fail to ask what [John Henry] Newman mean by ‘universal knowledge.’ By ‘universal’ Newman did not mean that the knowledges that constitute liberal learning cannot be justified by their utility, but rather that all knowledge was interconnected because the ‘universe in its length and breadth is so intimately knit together.’ To be educated is not to be well read or to know a great deal about this or that subject. Rather, it is the only true enlargement of mind which is the power of viewing many things at once as one whole, of referring them severally to their true place in the universal system, or understanding their respective values, and determining their mutual dependence...” [95] Brackets are of the author.
And the preceding paragraph continues:
“... Thus is that form of Universal Knowledges sets up in the individual intellect, and constitutes its perfection. Possessed of this real illumination, the mind never views any part of the extended subject-matter of Knowledge without recollecting that it is but a part, or without the associations which spring from this recollection. It makes everything in some sort lead to everything else; it would communicate the image of the whole to every separate portion, till that whole becomes in imagination like a spirit, everywhere pervading and penetrating its component parts, and giving them one definite meaning .... Philosophy, not theology, Newman believes to be the discipline that is distinct from all the sciences, that is, ‘in some sense’ philosophy is ‘ … a science of sciences … ’ ...” [95].
What can applied knowledge do for efficiency, progress and modernity?
Speaking of non-theological omniscience, Edward Teller argues, “...The science of today is the technology of tomorrow ...” [83]
Applied non-theological omniscience is lavishly applied by DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) and a myriad of world-class private contractors by both of these agencies, among many other institutions.
Applied non-theological omniscience has been under application since the early 1950s.
To illustrate the focus of the latter-day work, “...Management of Risk and Insurance...” does not ever equate to beyond-insurance risk management (the exact opposite of insurance-based risk unmagement).
It is now important to assert that “...COSO Risk Management...” and “...Enterprise Risk Management...” are never beyond-insurance risk management.
“...Management of Captive Insurance Companies...” does not ever equate to beyond-insurance risk management.
“...' … Risk Management ...' (so-called) by Insurance and Reinsurance Brokers...” does not ever equate to beyond-insurance risk management.
Under the snail-paced financial focus, institutional and corporate firms "...transfer risks..." (so called) to insurance and reinsurance companies (suboptimal or ineffectual choice).
Under the TAIRM focus, institutional and corporate firms manage risks optimally through the systems approach with the applied omniscience perspective (optimal decision).
Coming to the core of the subject matter, thus receiving indemnity payments was observed as insidious mediocrity by this petroleum group above.
After all, one must realize that they are not a primarily financial system “player,” but an institutional incumbent mostly exercising organic ownership and profit of fixed and liquid assets.
Clearly, the financial aspects and those of their liquid assets were also important to them.
The high-raking executives and applied scientists of most of these global institutions know that insurance and reinsurance companies have rampant speculative financial ambitions as if they were investment banks, just to cite one example.
And, as a consequence, many of them displace (divert) the legally-stipulated “...premium reserves...” (financial provisions orginally established to indemnify the losses to insureds and reinsureds) and in order to seize additional and unlawful gains out of said reserves.
All of the preceding without these parties actually getting in proactive and agile engagement of countermeasuring threats.
These insurance and reinsurance companies do the prior by financially re-engineering the allocated portions of the premiums designated to pay for covered losses.
As many insurance and reinsurance companies doctor and manipulate the sacred premium reserves, they make extraordinary and illegitimate earnings while losing great solvency and their ultimate ability to indemnify duly covered losses.
Most insurance and reinsurance companies view themselves as enjoying first-order blood-related “...family relationships...” with banks, stock market firms and many other private “ … players ...” within the ever-speculative financial system.
And when the global economy and financial system are even further brought down, What and where are the indemnity payments that the insured parties are going to get from the insurers? Most probably in some fact pockets hidden in relished fiscal paradises.
For serious industrial corporations, mired by intensive intellectual and fixed asset capitals, such global malfeasance aforementioned is a like an abject financial-engineering “...glitch ...”.
Global corporations do not desire their corporate insurance policies to be subjected to outright wrongdoing and other ups and downs (whether systemic or not) by any "...agent..." (gambler) of the financial system, chiefly the insurance and reinsurance companies.
Financial systems become a so-called “ … systemic risk ...” by the expressed doctoring and gambling deeds of and by the primordial incumbents in such financial systems.
Consequently, management by insurance and reinsurance companies is NEVER beyond-insurance risk management.
Thus, it was insidious mediocrity because this petroleum group's executives strongly believed that these risks can be stopped before morphing into disruption potentials if a previous, early-on appropriate work was previously designed and in place.
The frequently cited the White Swans exploited by Royal Dutch Shell to facilitate one example quickly.
Like many governmental agencies and other prominent global corporations, Citgo's PDVSA did not tolerate a “...financial system...”-driven risk management option.
All of these institutions wanted a central and on-site solution through systems approach with the applied omniscience perspective, enabled by a reliable external turnkey consultant and strategist.
The applied omniscience notion is vastly and continuously used by agencies and corporations in the Military-Industrial Complex.
Yes, by law and in general, you still need “worker's compensation,” “directors and officers,” “kidnap and ransom,” “legal expenses,” “product liability” and “life insurance.”
BUT NOT IN PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES AND ONLY IN ORGANIZATIONAL AND BUSINESS SETTINGS, “...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management...” (explained hereby) turns corporate and institutional insurance irrelevant and worthless.
The sensible majority of corporate and institutional risks ─ through TAIRM ─ can be optimally managed without insurance and reinsurance.
In the process, you are additionally making a huge saving by not paying exaggerated unearned and undeserved commissions and bonuses to insurance and reinsurance brokers. “...Brokers...” (“...sales reps...”) of what? Indeed!
Insurance or Insurance-Based Risk Unmanagement is the old guard while Transformative and Integrative Risk Management is the vanguard, today!
We are all professionally and managerially concerned about legalistic and litigious: regulations, frameworks, zeitgeists and Weltanschauungs.
But these are not the only perils requiring holistic countermeassuring in an all-out wars “...waged...” within the theaters of operations.
If a corporation believes that Cyber or Cybersecurity Insurance will suffice, then one will know that the CEO is dysfunctional.
And issues bestowed by violation of Governance, Compliance and Controls also required a much more holistic countermeassuring.
By way of illustration, only managing issues concerning the abidance of: Sarbanes–Oxley Act, Patriot Act, Governance, Compliance, Controls and Intellectual Property is never ever “...beyond-insurance risk management...”
Nearly all lawyers and economists see "...risk management and insurance..." as a financial and legal approach.
Just about all accountants see "...risk management and insurance..." as a comptroller's methodology.
The majority of actuaries see "...risk management and insurance..." as a statistical methodology.
Most auditors see "...risk management and insurance..." as a governance and compliance and intellectual property methodology.
To the highest degree possible, economists and financiers see "...risk management and insurance..." as a speculative and highly doctorable financial transaction.
The great majority of corporate planners see "...risk management and insurance..." as a strategy and planning approach.
Nearly all human resources managers see "...risk management and insurance..." as a psychological approach.
CIOs, CISOs and CTOs, I.T. managers and I.T. risk managers see "...risk management and insurance..." as a computational methodology.
Almost all lawyers, economists, financiers, accountants, business administrators, auditors, corporate planners, actuaries, human resources managers, CIOs, CISOs, CTOs, I.T. managers and I.T. risk managers are not sufficiently right because their focus and pursuit fail to consider the applied physicist' and engineer's all-rounded criteria.
Beyond-insurance risk management and TAIRM comprehensively consider lawfulness (including intellectual properties), Sarbanes–Oxley Act, Patriot Act, governance, compliance, controls, business administration, accounting, auditing, statistics, actuarial sciences, corporate planning, human resources, economics and finance, I.T. and technology, as well.
As a by-product, TAIRM takes into serious consideration everything related to the efficiency, progress, growth and seamless sustainability of the institutional clients.
Beyond-insurance risk management and TAIRM contemplate many other proprietary aspects not discussed here.
Virtually all lawyers, economists, financiers, business administrators, accountants, auditors, corporate planners, actuaries, human resources managers, CIOs, CISOs, CTOs, I.T. managers and I.T. risk managers are NEVER into beyond-insurance risk management and TAIRM.
Beyond-insurance risk management and TAIRM are ultimately truth-seeking methodologies through the systems approach and with the applied omniscience perspective.
Many (not all): prominent scientists, academicians, scholars, linguists, polyglots, researchers, engineers, thought leaders, historians, philosophers, authors, CEOs, inventors, states-people, lawyers, economists, financiers, business administrators, accountants, auditors, corporate planners, actuaries, human resources managers, CIOs, CISOs, CTOs, I.T. managers and I.T. risk managers seek accuracy ─ either directly or indirectly ─ in adversarial modes by going to court and “...resolving...” the loss (disruption potential) in over-legalistic and over-litigious “...boxing rings...” (that is, seeking contentious adversarial truths).
Law and complexity:
“...The law is recognizing the trend toward complexity of life and the inability of the average person to recognize and overcome risks associated with it … Whereas our forefathers could knowingly inspect the horseshoes a blacksmith nailed on their horses’ hoofs, the average person today cannot knowledgeably inspect a microwave oven or a car’s automatic transmission....” [226]
SUBSEQUENTLY, WHILE ADVERSARIAL TRUTH IS SUBOPTIMAL OR INEFFECTUAL, TECHNICAL TRUTH IS OPTIMAL.
Casually, business administrators (managers) and many investors “...relish...” outsourcing and off-shoring. But neither outsourcing nor off-shoring is beyond-insurance risk management.
Equally, neither re-engineering, nor cost-cutting, nor continuous improvement is beyond-insurance risk management.
In addition, some major national economies are being currently ruined by previous massive outsourcing and off-shoring engagements.
Ruins have also been inflicted by un-walked talks about public education reform for the past forty years, chiefly in the pontificated yet dysfunctional West.
Furthermore, TAIRM deeply examines the enterprise’s core business.
However, all honorable professionals hereby mentioned are clever and have outstanding contributions to make in society.
Not separately but jointly they have a partial role to play in beyond-insurance risk management.
And actual and advanced "...beyond-insurance risk management..." is just OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT.
The aforementioned oil group wanted to preemptively countermeasure every hazard and risk optimally (early on).
Subsequently, I expanded, revised, upgraded and enhanced greatly this practice and approach, after twenty-one years of applied experience, and carefully designed, developed and created my proprietary methodology and professional, trade secret, "...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management..." (TAIRM) back in 2005 (continually updated and upgraded to date).
Simply stated, it is secret because it is proprietary.
This own approach I seamlessly coalesce with the scientific futuring perspective (skill, expertise).
My researched Scientific Futuring definition is this:
“...Scientific Futuring is in place to develop a scientific method for studying the future. Scientific Futuring comprises: 1) an inductive process consisting of a number of accurate observations which have been consolidated, or generalized, into empirical laws or statements of underlying relationships between key variables and 2) A deductive, intuitive process by which the scientific “investigator” places his observations into a larger system of thought, or theory based on fundamental axioms. Scientific Futuring is instituted with the purpose of seizing knowledge of effects through causes. This method of Scientific Futuring, made up of a process employing the classical scientific steps of induction and deduction, and reinforced by additional steps of contextualization and evolutionization, is a battle-plan for study of tomorrow’s evolving world...”
Hidden and ignored risks must authors fail to elaborate on:
There is a great risk for all sorts of business enterprises. Unfortunately, most practitioners of Risk Unmanagement (insurance and insurance-based risk management) and Risk Management (beyond-insurance risk management) ─ along with folks into planning and implementing Strategy ─ , fail to consider gravely and prevalently.
Those risks stem from the war-waging campaign presented and put forward by industry's and other industry's competitors. As with any other risk, these hazards the manager most foresee, prepare for and get ready to exploit, transforming downsides into substantial upsides.
Extremely important subsequent addendum:
“...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management (TAIRM) is also implemented in order to prevent technological and other surprises to the savvy organization seeking this advice and service by TAIRM, but also to create disruptively technological surprises (managerial '...Sputnik Moments...') for the enterprise’s competitors...”
This notion is better understood when the axiom: “... strategy is a function of a grander beyond-insurance risk management program and not the other way around...” is fully accepted and practiced.
In one line, Transformative and Integrative Risk Management (TAIRM) is absolutely “ … Skunkworks … ,” “ … Space Age, ...” “ … Wargaming, … ” Technocratic and Omnimode Management.
As per the Royal Academy of the Spanish Language dictionary, by omnimode is to say, “ … that embraces and consists of everything ...” [223]
Hence, this is non-“...status quo...” management.
While others insist on timidly “...thinking outside the box...” (inconsequential), TAIRM focuses on strong-sense and critico-creative actionable womb-to-tomb epidemiological thinking and execution!
Not thinking out of the box BUT womb-to-tomb and yet epidemiological reasoning in the theater of operations.
“...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management..." (TAIRM) is a methodology conceived, designed, created and instituted, at all times and by any measure, independently.
To arrive to this point, massive intellectual and pecuniary own resources and efforts have ALREADY been invested.
"...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management..." (TAIRM) thoroughly deals with content, process and context, among other many considerations.
Also, some large enterprises as well as petroleum corporations (whose brand names are notoriously public) have a full-scope organization in place to deal with some hazards that are not too public in the every-day-person arena.
By way of illustration, this organization is sometimes termed as "...Integral Protection..." (I.P.)
For the sake of convenience, I will address “I.P.” meaning Integral Protection and not Intellectual Property.
Others call it “... Corporate Integrity ...”
I.P. is primarily a preemptively preventative function and responsibility of corporate (private) law enforcement, civil defense and corporate first responders (including own policemen, medics, and firefighters).
I.P. operates systemic and systematic countermeasuring of both external and internal threats.
To illustrate this function and responsibility better, I.P. takes care of the tangible and intangible integrity of the operating building and corresponding premises and other assets, including the personnel.
If one employee is selling trade secrets or consuming illegal substances, I.P. is watching and acting upon.
I.P. does corporate counterintelligence and operates on it. I.P. incumbents are, for example, also responsible for designing, developing and instituting corporate plans pertaining to emergency preparedness, emergency response, disaster recovery, business restoration (partial function), business continuity (partial function) and business sustainability (partial function) to give you a brief idea.
I.P. also supervises and controls road and air ambulances and other medical and non-medical road and air-borne evacuation systems.
I.P. is also responsible for preventive exercises and drills for massive evacuations in case of earthquakes, floods, fires and riots, among other perils.
When a worker gets gravely burned, he or she needs to be treated with extreme care, from the site of occurrence and evacuation through and to the most specialized medical center. The evacuation vehicle is 95% of the cases an expensive helicopter that is able to fly safely during nighttime, for example.
Transformative and Integrative Risk Management fully contemplates, tackles, advises and operates on instrumental enhancement of the corporate provisions by Integral Protection organizations (sometimes called “ … departments … ” and others “ … divisions … ”).
Have you ever seen an insurance or reinsurance company with these major risk-countermeasuring duties and services before an organizational client?
And only and partly because of that, insurance and reinsurance companies are, by far, outside of the realm of beyond-insurance risk management and TAIRM.
TAIRM, too, has vast managerial applications for law enforcement and counter-terrorism “ ...activities ...”
However, the majority of incumbents of public office are in the backyard playing political “games” and don't possess neither a legitimate interest, nor an appropriate comprehension of techniques, technologies and methodologies, conducive to more stable “...national security...” doctrines and policies in actuality.
On the contrary, some (not all) advanced exemplary democracies in the West, while arguing that they are protecting national security and the motherlands, are being turned into «de facto» Police States through many supercomputing hardware and software.
Many incumbents of public office don't even have a designated budget to act upon.
Additionally and by way of example, Asian presidents are techies and nerdies that fluidly communicate on Science, Technology, Engineering and Math issues (that is, STEM careers).
In the mean time, the counterparts in the West are chiefly held hostage to law, sociology and economics, with an overwhelming powerless feeling in technologically advanced conversations. All of this about the heads of state here have been publicly substantiated by Bill Gates.
Let us get one word's clear-eyed concept:
The cradle-to-the-grave definition of technology that I can offer is this:
“... Technology is instituted in order to solve practical problems (both mild and complex ones, whether randomized, pseudo-randomized, serendipitous or pseudo-serendipitous or not) ─ especially in industry, commerce, economy, science, technology, society, and politics (including geopolitics) ─, the methodical practical application of the scientific method, mathematical principles, practical sciences and material used to achieve a commercial or industrial objective and beyond, as well as to achieve practical ends such as the design, manufacture, and operation of efficient and economical structures, machines, processes, and systems …. The profession of and or the work performed by any engineer ...”
If you want a briefer definition, please see this: " ... the methodical and systematic application of science in order to solve practical problems …"
For example, Stanford University's own definition is: “...Technology is the means by which organizations accomplish work or render inputs into outputs …”
The protagonist in assuring that known inputs are transformed into desirable outputs is throughput.
The reader must remember that when dealing with known inputs and desired outputs, the targeted throughputs must also be detailed addressed in advance.
Again, throughputs transform known inputs into desirable outputs.
Besides:
As the past and the present are NEVER a script for the future, retrospective analyzes and historic data (provided by actuaries) are always being disrupted by the final trends and outcomes.
Why retrospective analyzes don't work:
“...After-the-fact [retrospective] no longer works .... Bring it back if you have any trouble with it, and I’ll fix it somehow,’ was the standard comment when you used to pick up a bicycle, automobile, food mixer, or lawn mower from the repair shop. And the repairman meant what he said. He was confident that if he had overlooked anything or made a mistake of any kind, he would get a second shot at fixing .... The ‘second shot’ is a luxury that no longer exists in many businesses. You get only one chance — after that, you’ll be talking only with attorneys, insurance agents, or bankers ...”
And:
“ … Life used to be simple. You knew your customers on a first-name basis. Your product or service was a relatively simple one — understood by both you and your customer. Your name and reputation were sufficient to cover any error or oversight .... But the world has become complex, too complex to allow such comfortable relationships. Consumer expectations are matching the complexities. Instantaneous news coverage of accidents and losses virtually precludes the private, out-of-sight settlement of risk effects that had previously allowed the after-the-fact resolution of risk to succeed ...”
And:
“ … The breadth in that old idea is rapidly being squeezed out — like the inevitable tightening of a boa constrictor around its victim .... The price for public exposure of loss is high. Managers have begun to realize that risk must be examined formally and resolved beforehand rather than being settled after-the-fact. And they learn from others. It was the 1982 sinking of the offshore drilling rig Ocean Ranger that spurred EXXON top management to order a systematic evaluation of their offshore drilling risks … Even though EXXON does not own such rigs, it recognized that even conducting operations aboard them created risks that demanded before-the-fact identification, evaluation, and control....” [226] Brackets are of the author.
Hence:
Please remember: “... THE FUTURE IS NOT AN ECHO OF THE PAST...”
So, instead of retrospective data, it is much more important prospective data. Although I consider both. It is also more important to me qualitative analyzes than quantitative ones.
Prospection comprises the of-all-functions exploration of future possibilities based on current evidence. (translated by AA). [222]
To this end:
Coming back to the point and believe it or not, I have met several actuaries that fully agree with my position.
They also insist that the retrospective analyzes have been displaced by the prospective analyzes.
In today’s technologically-driven world, strategic trend evaluation cannot be done using only algorithms. Numerous nuances, gray-area meanings and fluxes must be fully considered.
You can transfer many thought experiments to your computer and still, given the amazing level and number of nuances and subtleties and gray areas ─ as well as the covert and overt relationships facilitated by the preceding ─ by present-day dynamic complexities, you won't get the right output yet.
Arguably, at the hardcore of scientific futuring and transformative and integrative risk management, in place there is (1) A science, (2) An art, and (3) A practice.
Undoubtedly, once the human brain and body are inexhaustibly reverse-engineered and the new software templates are use in Strong Artificial Intelligence, the biological brain will then be superseded by several orders of magnitude.
To this utter and current purpose, Albert Einstein observes, "...Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted, counts..."
I do take into account both. I also practice “... Analytics ...” and “...Diagnostics...” and have nascently become interested on what Cambridge University' and Royal Society's Sir Martin Rees, PhD. calls the “...Science of Complexity...”
I have a compiled definition for it.
“ … Complexity Science is the systematic study of the nature and behavior of the material and physical universe, based on observation, experiment, and measurement, and the formulation of laws to describe these facts in general terms with the utter purpose of instituting the perusal of the phenomena which emerge from a collection of interacting objects … Complexity expresses a condition of numerous elements in a system and numerous forms of relationships among the elements … The use of the term complex is often confused with the term complicated. In today's systems, this is the difference between myriad connecting 'stovepipes' and effective 'integrated' solutions. This means that complex is the opposite of independent, while complicated is the opposite of simple …. While this has led some fields to come up with specific definitions of complexity, there is a more recent movement to regroup observations from different fields to study complexity in itself, whether it appears in anthills, human brains, or stock markets. One such interdisciplinary group of fields is relational order theories ...”
Once again, TAIRM is vastly more into qualitative analyzes than quantitative analyzes.
You see, every problem has an underlying mechanism.
Once you deeply comprehend how it operates, you can influence (via throughput) on the final outcomes (from known inputs to desired outputs) to your continuous advantage.
And every problem is a function of ignorance, sometimes a function of learned ignorance.
It can be logically argued that the term “...throughput...” has a Latin language equivalent by the term modus operandi.
To this end, GE's chairman and CEO Jack Welch PhD. also mentioned, “...To get to the guts of why things happen...”
Advanced mathematical models are partly useful if the narrative data has been correctly translated into numerical data.
Pervasive Information and Computational Technology are crucial. Narrative data has an infinite graded plethora of nuances and angles.
Likewise and getting back to the core of this work:
I have done extensive research globally throughout many places, institutions and years, from the U.S. marketplace, Lloyd's of London, Swiss RE, Tokyo Marine Group, and way further beyond to make a lengthy story brief.
I have also become directly knowledgeable (not “ … bookish, ...” or encyclopedic only but also factual, practical, empirical and as per the educated battlefield practicalities) of beyond-insurance risk management practices by many large, industrial enterprises and agencies such as NASA.
The NASA Projects Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo and the Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (Minuteman ICBM) initiative, comprehending that he or she or it cannot take those to the local insurance and reinsurance underwriter, yet these enterprises managerial initiatives have been successfully instituted.
Managers don't only need to study the ideas, plans and methods that beget sustainable success, but also the ideas, plans and methods that ascertain, as well, prevalent failure.
It is beyond a sine qua non to conscientiously study all sorts and modes of failures.
Embedded there is an over-learning and lucrative experience to capture.
To further illustrate the above, the Military-Industrial Complex and companies such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin, along with NASA ─ through their own methods ─ were pursuing their projects and programs without resorting to insurance and reinsurance companies at all.
I became knowledgeable with an in-all-truth polymath and an outright "...Rocket Scientist,..." a physicist, a systems engineer and a doctor in science, who was directly responsible for the reliability concerning: the NASA Projects Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo.
At NASA he was Dr. Wernher von Braun's right hand! I treasure all of his e-mails, letters and other materials.
To the utmost enhancement of my fortune, I have, for many years now, worked with the most daring, capricious and enlightened “ … largest institutional ...” clients (minds) that one can imagine ever.
They all were seeking managerial and industrial “miracles” only (sic).
WHILE GIVING THEM THEIR OUTRIGHT MIRACLES, I HAVE EXPERIENCED DRAMATIC OVER-LEARNING EXPERIENCES.
I once met a Scots executive who told me that beyond-insurance risk management methodology by DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), NASA, Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Royal Dutch/Shell Group was “...esoteric...” I still treasure his aesthetic e-mail.
This so-called “ … esoteric … ” beyond-insurance risk management approach by DARPA, NASA, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Shell, Dr. Strangelove (RAND Corporation's Herman Khan) and a multitude of global corporations has been first instituted since the beginning of the 1950s.
It has been in increasing utilization and betterment for about fifty-four years to this date.
What these institutions have successfully performed, transforming global civilizations and progress for Life, is un-apologetically and extremely uncomfortable for traditionalists whose ethos, cosmovisions and belief systems are fixed on the fossilized past and bonded to a myriad of obsolete assumptions, outdated notions and utter fallacies.
Conversely:
Given the present-day challenges embedded in the personal cosmologies of managers, scientists and futurologists, a new cosmosvision must be re-engineered and overhauled in order to replace it with an upgraded and updated version tackling the following:
A.- Beliefs (system of,)
B.- Ethos
C.- Assumptions
D.- Ideas
E.- Conceptions
F.- Concepts
G.- Preconceptions
H.- Understandings
I.- Notions
J.- Bias
K.- Patterns of recurrence
L.- Values
M.- Practices
N.- Subjectivity
M.- Objectivity (thus, so called)
O.- Customs
P.- Views
Q.- Knowledge
R.- Wisdom
S.- Logic
T.- Prejudice and non-prejudice.
The number of ignoramuses of supine ignorance in actual existence is a breathtaking global human-made risk for humankind to deal with.
Said ignoramuses are frozen in the past and Michael Cibenko deals with them, “... One problem with gazing too frequently into the past is that we may turn around to find the future has run out on us ...” [96]
Resistance to embracing new, yet proven knowledge is an absolute self-inflicted death sentence.
By luck, Dr. Malcolm Knowles Ph.D. addresses ignoramuses of supine ignorance (also known as simpletons and follies into outright fallacy):
“...The greatest danger for the survival of the present civilization is neither atomic war, nor environmental pollution, nor the exploitation of natural resources, and nor present crises. The underlying cause to all of the above is the acceleration of man’s obsolescence … The only hope seems to be an electroshock program to re-instill to the present adults the competencies required to function adequately under a mode of perpetual change. This is a profound need — the immeasurable challenge — that is presented by the modern society to adult education....” [218]
Now, a question:
Is there any other angle to take into account when coping with forthcoming downside risks and downside future while yet exploiting upside risks and upside futures?
The author hereby asserts that there are a multitude of fluid angles.
I will try a question:
What is an actual sample of dangerous and beneficial books and publications that some managers and risk managers are failing to consider when dealing with the rampant mutation of changed changes in contemporary organizational life today?
Do some per-se managers and risk managers realize that coping with all risks and futures is not anything else but securing sustained success by entrepreneurs, business owners, public sector leaders, non-governmental-organization stewards and supranational incumbents.
The verbatim sample:
1.- Why Most Things Fail: Evolution, Extinction and Economics ( ISBN-13: 978-0470089194 )
2.- Ubiquity: Why Catastrophes Happen ( ISBN-13: 978-0609809983 )
3.- The Misbehavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence ( ISBN-13: 978-0465043576 )
4.- Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder ( ISBN-13: 978-1400067824 )
5.- The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't ( ISBN-13: 978-1594204111 )
6.- The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives ( ISBN-13: 978-0307275172 )
7.- The Invisible Gorilla: How Our Intuitions Deceive Us ( ISBN-13: 978-0307459664 )
8.- The Upside of Irrationality: The Unexpected Benefits of Defying Logic ( ISBN-13: 978-0061995040 )
9.- Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy ( ISBN-13: 978-0691152639 )
10.- This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly ( ISBN-13: 978-0691152646 )
11.- The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008 ( ISBN-13: 978-0393337808 )
12.- First, Break All the Rules: What the World's Greatest Managers Do Differently ( ISBN-13: 978-0684852867 )
Conversely, a group of oil companies have requested from NASA's sustained advice on how to implement beyond-insurance risk management strategies and practices.
The official NASA Press Release is cited here or also available at http://lnkd.in/dkKZ4EF
EXACT QUOTATION BEGINS NOW:
“...NASA Johnson Space Center and Deloitte will enter into a strategic alliance offering advanced risk-management services to oil and gas companies. The Space Act Agreement commencement ceremony is scheduled for 1:30 p.m. Central, Thursday, June 27.... These capabilities include several operational risk-management approaches aimed at companies seeking to minimize the risk of catastrophic failures – the kinds of dramatic mishaps that, while highly unlikely, can occur in remote and harsh environments …. A core value of NASA is safety, which serves as a cornerstone of mission success. This collaboration will enforce NASA's constant attention to safety as a cornerstone upon which it operates as safely as possible ...”
And hereby it is continued:
“...Through this collaboration, NASA will gain knowledge to help prepare for future missions and to enhance current safety and risk mitigation technologies to address the dynamic, harsh, and remote requirements of emergent programs …. As part of the alliance, NASA and Deloitte will jointly offer a range of capabilities in the quickly evolving risk-sciences arena, such as 'risk modeling and simulation,' to help oil and gas companies eliminate blind spots in their decision making …. Using sophisticated risk-modeling and simulation tools and techniques can reduce uncertainties in engineering and operations at oil and gas companies – in much the same way NASA has done in its human spaceflight programs …. Included in the signing of the agreement are Johnson Deputy Center Director Steve Altemus, who will join veteran NASA astronaut and director of JSC's Safety and Mission Assurance office William "Bill" McArthur, Jr., Deloitte principal David Traylor and John England, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP, and leader of Deloitte's oil and gas practice …. Johnson Space Center is home to the International Space Station Program and the primary training facility for NASA's astronaut corps...”
END OF QUOTATION.
To further underpin the statements through this writing and countering dysfunctional illiteracy, I will share Peter Drucker's quote,
“...The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday’s logic...”
And also that of Dr. Stephen Covey,
“...Again, yesterday holds tomorrow hostage .... Memory is past. It is finite. Vision is future. It is infinite. Vision is greater than history...”
And that of Sir Francis Bacon,
“... He that will not apply new remedies must expect new evils, for time is the greatest innovator ...”
And that of London Business School Professor Gary Hamel, PhD.,
“...You cannot get to a new place with an old map...” And that of Alvin Toffler, “.....The future always comes too fast and in the wrong order...”
And that of Brad Leithauser,
“...It reminds us that, in our accelerating, headlong era, the future presses so close upon us that those who ignore it inhabit not the present but the past ...”
And that of Robert Kennedy,
“...The future is not a privilege but a perpetual conquest...”
And that of Thomas Friedman,
“...People are always [and wrongfully] assuming that everything that is going to be invented must have been invented already. But it hasn’t...” THIS QUOTATION IS HUGELY IGNORED. Brackets are of the author.
Therefore:
ON THE FINAL ANALYSIS, WE MUST READILY ACCEPT FORCEFUL NOVEL REALITIES INSTANTANEOUSLY.
To the above end, Dee Hock, CEO Emeritus of Visa International, stated:
“...The problem is never how to get new innovative thoughts into your mind, BUT HOW TO GET OLD ONES OUT ...”
Reinforcing the preceding motions, Rosario M. Levins observes,
“...Mythical thought is not pre-scientific; rather it anticipates the future state of being a science in that its past movement and its present direction are always in the same sense....” [219]
Before continuing with this opinion, I like to share my favorite quote by DARPA,
“...If you are not failing frequently, you are not succeeding enough...”
Besides several oil and other industrial corporations (such as Toyota, Mitsubishi Motors and TNT Express), I, too, have extensively performed full-scope risk management consulting services (“turnkey” solutions. I.e., primordial solutions and never quick fixes!) for organizations in industries such as automotive, industrial, health-care, logistics, insurance, telecommunications, employee benefits, government, and consultancy, among others.
Organizations that utilize intensive tangible (fixed and liquid assets) and intangible (proprietary knowledge base, including trade secrets and copyrighted assets) capital usually operate preventive maintenance and corrective maintenance.
Through TAIRM those organizations also institute frequent and preemptive perfective maintenance, as preventive and corrective maintenance are more frequently implemented while documenting thoroughly the detailed findings of said maintenances and upgrading the troubleshooting of issues stemming from said findings.
Dealing with the heavy-duty industrial equipments found in car manufactures and full-scope petroleum corporations to cite two global examples, there is also a novel application of the “... perfective maintenance ...” concept.
Large organizations as those mentioned above have generally a large headcount. So they habitually have company-sponsored health-care benefit plans and systems. The signing below person has taken proactive and instrumental part, for a number of years, in instituting the notion of “ … perfective medicine ...” through Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, as a direct way with the purpose of improving the health and well-being of eligible workers and the eligible dependents and also as a way to assure more overall cost-effectiveness and hence sustainability to this health-care plan and system.
I also worked with the risks involved with large maritime fleets, chiefly those of petroleum tankers (fleets of marine vessels under the ownership and stewardship of petroleum groups).
I have also worked with the risks by corporate fleets of private jet-propelled planes and automobiles.
Additionally:
As you know, Japanese corporations and institutions are into intensive Kaisen and Toyota Production System (TPS).
Regarding advanced quality assurance and continuous improvement, these approaches have been demonstrated indispensable.
But their practitioners are always attempting to manage risks through said approaches without any success.
TPS is also known as “...Thinking People System...”
Toyota's CFO and the Production Director have their jaws dropped ─ while being observed by their own Chairman and CEO ─ when I carefully demonstrated to them the flaws of Kaisen and TPS in managing risks compared to the ample breadth and depth of scope and application by the “..Transformative and Integrative Risk Management...” (TAIRM).
Although they were in a major personal and technical bewilderment, they hired me (as Mitsubishi Motors did before) to institute the advanced risk management of a self-funded and self-administered health-care benefit program for some seven-hundred Toyota employees and their respective eligible dependents.
Both cases were turnkey undertakings.
TNT Express' engagement was the implementation of advanced risk management of a self-funded and self-administered health-care benefit program for some five-hundred TNT Express employees and their respective eligible dependents. It was a turnkey undertaking.
Regarding a nation's regional state, I implemented beyond-insurance risk management of a self-funded and self-administered and universal health-care benefit program for some 700,000 citizens (beneficiaries).
TAIRM has been extensively instituted ─ regarding numerous industrial and operational risks ─ in many petroleum joint ventures led by corporations such as Shell, Statoil, Exxon, Mobil, BP, Chevron, Conoco, and Italy's ENI and, among others.
Global corporations are greatly into beyond-insurance risk management.
Other organizations that institute beyond-insurance methodologies include:
OSHA (Occupational Safety and Health Administration), FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency), IBM and Manitoba Government Air Services.
TAIRM seriously considers and utilizes, among many other systems, every Western and Eastern quality assurance methodologies (both from civilian and military spheres).
Nearly all of said systems that TAIRM uses are available at http://tiny.cc/u14k5w or www.tairm-q.blogspot.com/
NEITHER KAISEN, NOR TPS, AND NOR ANY OTHER QUALITY ASSURANCE AND CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT SYSTEMS IN THE WORLD ARE A BEYOND-INSURANCE RISK MANAGEMENT METHODOLOGY IN THE TRADITION OF TAIRM.
In related manner, the U.S. Navy and the Los Alamos National Laboratory have extraordinary quality assurance methodologies.
I have applied beyond-insurance risk management for supranationals (for instance, the World Bank and World Health Organization), NGOs and national governments.
THEREFORE, I AM AND WILL ALSO BE A BEYOND-INSURANCE RISK MANAGEMENT CONSULTANT AND RESEARCHER AND STRATEGIST AND PRACTITIONER WITH AN EMPHATIC SCIENTIFIC FUTURES STUDIES PERSPECTIVE.
Accordingly:
New applied knowledge, new science and new technologies are going to change (“...creatively disrupt...”) it all (along with omnipresent trade and automation) right now, including every industry in the marketplace.
And subsequently, every industry's manager and hence management beginning time immemorial.
To give the reader a meaningful view on the proceeding, Stanford University, by way of example, observes,
"...The ubiquity and variability of organizations means there is ample room for complexity and confusion in the organizational challenges we regularly face ..."
AS WE ALL DISTINGUISH THAT NOVEL KNOWLEDGE IS SIGNIFICANTLY AND DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE MANAGEMENT PROFESSION, PLEASE SEE THEN HEREBY WHAT IS EXACTLY HAPPENING TO SCIENTIFIC PROGRESSION AND TECHNOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE TODAY:
(My POV will resume thereafter).
BEGINNING OF THE CITATION:
A) "...HUMAN KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING EVERY TEN YEARS [AS PER THE 1998 STANDARDS]..." [226]
B) “...COMPUTER POWER IS DOUBLING EVERY EIGHTEEN MONTHS. THE INTERNET IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR. THE NUMBER OF DNA SEQUENCES WE CAN ANALYZE IS DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS..." [226]
C) “...BEGINNING WITH THE AMOUNT OF KNOWLEDGE IN THE KNOWN WORLD AT THE TIME OF CHRIST, STUDIES HAVE ESTIMATED THAT THE FIRST DOUBLING OF THAT KNOWLEDGE TOOK PLACE ABOUT 1700 A.D. THE SECOND DOUBLING OCCURRED AROUND THE YEAR 1900. IT IS ESTIMATED TODAY THAT THE WORLD'S KNOWLEDGE BASE WILL DOUBLE AGAIN BY 2010 AND AGAIN AFTER THAT BY 2013...” [226]
D) “...KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING BY EVERY FOURTEEN MONTHS...” [226]
E) “...MORE THAN THE DOUBLING OF COMPUTATIONAL POWER [IS TAKING PLACE] EVERY YEAR...” [226]
F) “...The flattening of the world is going to be hugely disruptive to both traditional and developed societies. The weak will fall further behind faster. The traditional will feel the force of modernization much more profoundly. The new will get turned into old quicker. The developed will be challenged by the underdeveloped much more profoundly. I worry, because so much political stability is built on economic stability, and economic stability is not going to be a feature of the flat world. Add it all up and you can see that the disruptions and going to come faster and harder. No one is immune ─ not me, not you, not Microsoft. WE ARE ENTERING AN ERA OF CREATIVE DESTRUCTION ON STEROIDS. Dealing with flatism is going to be a challenge of a whole new dimension even if your country has a strategy. But if you don’t have a strategy at all, well, again, you’ve warned...” [226]
G) “...By the end of the twentieth century, science had reached the end of an era, unlocking the secrets of the atom, unraveling the molecule of life, and creating the electronic computer. With these three fundamental discoveries, triggered by the quantum revolution, the DNA revolution, and the computer revolution, the basic laws of matter, life, and computation were, in the main, finally solved .... That epic phase of science is now drawing to a close; one era is ending and another is only beginning .... The next era of science promises to be an even deeper, more thoroughgoing, more penetrating one than the last .... Clearly, we are on the threshold of yet another revolution. HUMAN KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING EVERY TEN YEARS [AS PER THE 1998 STANDARDS]. In the past decade, more scientific knowledge has been created than in all of human history. COMPUTER POWER IS DOUBLING EVERY EIGHTEEN MONTHS. THE INTERNET IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR. THE NUMBER OF DNA SEQUENCES WE CAN ANALYZE IS DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS ...” Brackets are of the author.
And G) above continues here:
“... Almost daily, the headlines herald new advances in computers, telecommunications, biotechnology, and space exploration. In the wake of this technological upheaval, entire industries and lifestyles are being overturned, only to give rise to entirely new ones. But these rapid, bewildering changes are not just quantitative. They mark the birth pangs of a new era .... FROM NOW TO THE YEAR 2020, SCIENTISTS FORESEE AN EXPLOSION IN SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITY SUCH AS THE WORLD HAS NEVER SEEN BEFORE. IN TWO KEY TECHNOLOGIES, COMPUTER POWER AND THE DNA SEQUENCING, WE WILL SEE ENTIRE INDUSTRIES RISE AND FALL ON THE BASIS OF BREATHTAKING SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES. SINCE THE 1950S, THE POWER OF OUR COMPUTERS HAS ADVANCED BY A FACTOR OF ROUGHLY TEN BILLION. IN FACT, BECAUSE BOTH COMPUTER POWER AND DNA SEQUENCING DOUBLE ROUGHLY EVERY TWO YEARS, ONE CAN COMPUTE THE ROUGH TIME FRAME OVER WHICH MANY SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGHS WILL TAKE PLACE ....”
And G) above continues here:
“... BY 2020, MICROPROCESSORS WILL LIKELY BE AS A CHEAP AND PLENTIFUL AS SCRAP PAPER, SCATTERED BY THE MILLIONS INTO ENVIRONMENT, ALLOWING US TO PLACE INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING AROUND US, INCLUDING THE NATURE OF COMMERCE, THE WEALTH OF NATIONS, AND THE WAY WE COMMUNICATE, WORK, PLAY, AND LIVE...” [226]
H) “...The knowledge revolution is taking place in small, sharply defined areas. One company generates more U.S. patents than 139 countries do together … This [revolution] generates new EMPIRES and new ghettos .... It slams into existing systems and destroys them while creating new systems. Countries and individuals can either surf new and powerful waves of change ─ or try to stop them and get crushed...” [226]
I) “...Nanotechnologies are broad concept, it’s simply refers to technology where the key features in measuring the small number of nanometers. A NANOMETER IS THE DIAMETER OF FIVE CARBON ATOMS SO IT’S VERY CLOSE TO THE MOLECULAR LEVEL AND WE ALREADY HAVE NEW MATERIALS AND DEVICES THAT HAD BEEN MANUFACTURED AT THE NANOSCALE. IN FACT, CHIPS TODAY, THE KEY FEATURES ARE 50 OR 60 NANOMETERS SO THAT IS ALREADY NANOTECHNOLOGY. The true promise of nanotechnology is that ultimately we’ll be able to create devices that are manufactured at the molecular level by putting together, molecular fragments in new combinations so, I can send you an information file and a desktop nanofactory will assemble molecules according to the definition in the file and create a physical objects so I can e-mail you a pair of trousers or a module to build housing or a solar panel and WE’LL BE ABLE TO CREATE JUST ABOUT ANYTHING WE NEED IN THE PHYSICAL WORLD FROM INFORMATION FILES WITH VERY INEXPENSIVE INPUT MATERIALS. You can… I mean, just a few years ago if I wanted to send you a movie or a book or a recorded album, I would send you a FedEx package, now I can e-mail you an attachment and you can create a movie or a book from that ...”
And I) above continues here:
“ … On the future, I’ll be able to e-mail you a blouse or a meal. So, that’s the promise of nanotechnology. Another promise is to be able to create devices that are size of blood cells and by the way biology is an example of nanotechnology, the key features of biology are at the molecular level. SO, THAT’S ACTUALLY THE EXISTENCE PROOF THAT NANOTECHNOLOGY IS FEASIBLE BUT BIOLOGY IS BASED ON LIMITED SIDE OF MATERIALS. EVERYTHING IS BUILT OUT OF PROTEINS AND THAT’S A LIMITED CLASS OF SUBSTANCES. WITH NANOTECHNOLOGY WE CAN CREATE THINGS THAT ARE FAR MORE DURABLE AND FAR MORE POWERFUL. One scientist designed a robotic red blood cell it’s a thousand times more powerful than the biological version so, if you were to replace a portion of your biological red blood cells with this respirocytes the robotic versions. You could do an Olympic sprint for 15 minutes without taking a breath or sit at the bottom of your pool for 4 hours ...”
And I) above continues here:
“ … If I were to say someday you’ll have millions or even billions of these nanobots, nano-robots, blood cell size devices going through your body and keeping you healthy from inside, I might think well, that sounds awfully futuristic. I’d point out this already in 50 experiments in animals of doing exactly that with the first generation of nano engineered blood cell size devices. One scientist cured type-1 diabetes in rats with the blood cell size device. Seven nanometer pores let’s insulin out in the controlled fashion. At MIT, there’s a blood cell size device that can detect and destroy cancer cells in the bloodstream. These are early experiments but KEEP IN MIND THAT BECAUSE OF THE EXPONENTIAL PROGRESSION OF THIS TECHNOLOGY, THESE TECHNOLOGIES WILL BE A BILLION TIMES MORE POWERFUL IN 25 YEARS AND YOU GET SOME IDEA WHAT WILL BE FEASIBLE ...” [226]
J) “...The world has profoundly changed … The challenges and complexity we face in our personal lives and relationships, in our families, in our professional lives, and in our organizations are of a different order of magnitude. In fact, many mark 1989 ─ the year we witnessed the fall of the Berlin Wall ─ as the beginning of the Information Age, the birth of a new reality, a sea change of incredible significance ─ truly a new era ─ Being effective as individuals and organizations is no longer merely an option ─ survival in today’s world requires it. But in order to thrive, innovate, excel, and lead in what Covey calls the new Knowledge Worker Age, we must build on and move beyond effectiveness [long-held assumptions, fallacies and flawed beliefs and faulty conventions]…Accessing the higher levels of human genius and motivation in today’s new reality REQUIRES A SEA CHANGE IN THINKING: a new mind-sets, a new skill-set, a new tool-set ─ in short, a whole new habit...” [226] Brackets are of the author.
K) “...All the notions we thought solid, all the values of civilized life, all that made for stability in international relations, all that made for regularity in the economy … in a word, all that tended happily to limit the uncertainty of the morrow, all that gave nations and individuals some confidence in the morrow … all this seems badly compromised. I have consulted all augurs I could find, of every species, and I have heard only vague words, contradictory prophecies, curiously feeble assurances. Never has humanity combined so much power with so much disorder, so much anxiety with so many playthings, so much knowledge with so much uncertainty...” [226]
L) “...It’s not the case that there are only a fixed number of positions, and if old people don’t die off, there’s no room for young people to come up with new ideas, because we’re constantly expanding knowledge …. Knowledge is growing exponentially. It’s doubling approximately every year ….The problem is I can’t get on the phone with you in the future and say, “Well, I’ve done it, I have lived forever ….This idea of creating a whole virtual body with nanobots, that’s more like a 2050 scenario. But by the 2030s we’ll be putting millions of nanobots inside our bodies to augment our immune system, to basically wipe out disease. One scientist cured Type I diabetes in rats with a blood-cell-size device already ….” [226]
L) here continues:
“... By 2029, computers will have emotional intelligence and be convincing as people. This implies that these are people with volition just like you and I, not just games that you turn on or off. Is it my father? You could argue that it’s a simulation. But it’s not something you can play with. You don’t want to bring someone back who might be very depressed because the world is very different than they expect and the people they know aren’t around …. It’s not us versus them. We’ve created these tools to overcome our limitations, and we’ve integrated with them already. A.I. today is not in three or four dark federal intelligence agencies; it’s in billions of mobile devices around the world.... Early in this decade [2020s], humanity will have the requisite hardware to emulate human intelligence within a $1000 personal computer, followed shortly by effective software models of human intelligence toward the middle of the decade: this will be enabled through the continuing exponential growth of brain-scanning technology, which is doubling in bandwidth, temporal and spatial resolution every year, and will be greatly amplified with nanotechnology, allowing us to have a detailed understanding of all the regions of the human brain and to aid in developing human-level machine intelligence by the end of this decade …. Computers less than 100 m in size will be possible ...” Brackets are of the author. [226]
M) “...The real trouble with this world of ours is not that it is an unreasonable world, nor that it is a reasonable one. The commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite. Life is not an illogicality; yet is a trap for logicians. It looks just a little more mathematical and regular than it is; its exactitude is obvious, but its inexactitude is hidden, its wildness lies in wait....” [220] [226]
N) “...We believe that the goal is not to predict the future, but to imagine a future made possible by changes in technology, life style, work style, regulation, global geopolitics, and the like. And there are as many viable futures as there as imaginative firms that can understand deeply the dynamics at work right now which hold opportunities to become the author of the new. FOR THE FUTURE IS NOT WHAT WILL HAPPEN; THE FUTURE IS WHAT IS HAPPENING. The present and the future don’t about each other, neatly divided between the five-year plan and the great unknown beyond. Rather they are intertwined. Every company is in the process of becoming — of becoming an anachronism irrelevant to the future, or of becoming the harbinger of the future ...” [226]
N) continues:
“...The long-term is not something that happens someday; it is what every company is building or forfeiting .... Only those who can imagine and preemptively create the future will be around to enjoy it … Creating a compelling view of tomorrow’s opportunities and moving preemptively to secure the future are tasks for neither dilettantes nor the merely intellectual curious … Other companies, the laggards, were more interested in protecting the past than in creating the future … We believe, and will argue strongly, that a company must not only get to the future first, it must get there for less .... And re-engineering charge is simply the penalty that a company must pay for not having anticipated the future .... If senior executives don’t have reasonably detailed answers to the ‘future’ set of questions, and if the answers they do have are not substantially different from the ‘today’ answers, there is little chance their companies will remain market leaders .... For much of the 1980s, IBM had been driving toward the future while looking out the rear-view mirror .... Too often, profound thinking about the future and how to shape it occurs only when present success has been substantially eroded .... Creating the future is more challenging than playing catch up, in that you have to create your own road map .... The goal is not simply to benchmark a competitor’s products and processes and imitate its methods, but to develop an independent point of view about tomorrow’s opportunities and how to exploit them ...” [226]
N) continues:
“ … Path-breaking is a lot more rewarding than benchmarking. One doesn’t get to the future first by letting someone else blaze the trail .... Passengers will get to the future, but their fate will not be in their own hands. Theirs profits from the future will be modest at best. Those who drive industry revolution — companies that have a clear, permeated view of where they want tom take their industry and are capable of orchestrating resources inside and outside the company to get there first — will be handsomely rewarded… The future is not an extrapolation of the past. New industrial structures will supersede old industrial structures .... Opportunities that at first blush seem evolutionary will prove to be revolutionary .... A commitment substantial enough to beget the perseverance required to create the future must be based on something more than a hunch .... But to create the future, a company must first be able to forget some of its past … ‘The future was predictable, but hardly anyone predicted it’ ...” [87]. [226]
O) “...The future belongs not to those who possess a crystal ball, but those willing to challenge the biases and prejudices of the ‘establishment.’ The future belongs more to the unorthodox than it does to the prognosticators […and/or predictioneers...], more to the movement than to the starry-eyed …. The problem with the future is that is different …. If you are unable to think differently, the Future will always arrive as a [strategic or geostrategic Sputnik Moment] surprise ...”
O) continues:
“ … Each revolution in art was based on a re-conception of reality. It wasn’t the canvas, the pigments, or the brushes that changed, but how the artist perceived the world. In the same sense, it’s not the tools that distinguish industry revolutionaries from hummed, not the information technology they harness, not the process they use, not their facilities. Instead, is their ability to escape the stranglehold of the familiar...” [28]. Brackets are of the author.
P) “...A primary theme in Alvin Toffler’s best selling book Future Shock is that society’s rate of change is increasing. Everything around us ─ including ourselves ─ is rapidly changing. Nothing is stable, permanent, constant, or fixed. Neither is risk. It is an indigenous element in the volatility of life. If anything, risk expands at a greater rate than the societal rate of change ─ due to its roots in uncertainty and ignorance of consequences, which multiply during mercurial instability....” [226]
ON DOUBLINGS BY HARD SCIENCE, HI-TECH AND EFFICIENCY:
Incidentally, every Scientific and Technological Progression available that is into a '' ...doubling ...” order of magnitude is synthesized here:
Doubling A:
“... HUMAN KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING EVERY TEN YEARS [AS PER THE 1998 STANDARDS]. In the past decade, more scientific knowledge has been created than in all of human history ...” (http://bit.ly/1nOc5Xm ). Brackets are of the author. [226]
Doubling B:
“... COMPUTER POWER IS DOUBLING EVERY EIGHTEEN MONTHS. THE INTERNET IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR. THE NUMBER OF DNA SEQUENCES WE CAN ANALYZE IS DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS ...” (http://bit.ly/1gn4CdX ) [226]
Doubling C:
“ ...IN FACT, BECAUSE BOTH COMPUTER POWER AND DNA SEQUENCING DOUBLE ROUGHLY EVERY TWO YEARS, ONE CAN COMPUTE THE ROUGH TIME FRAME OVER WHICH MANY SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGHS WILL TAKE PLACE .... BY 2020 ...” (http://bit.ly/1lZQ1Vc) [226]
Doubling D:
“...SCIENTIFIC MANPOWER IS DOUBLING EVERY 12 YEARS IN A RATE OF GROWTH MORE THAN THREE TIMES THAT OF OUR POPULATION AS A WHOLE, DESPITE THAT, THE VAST STRETCHES OF THE UNKNOWN AND THE UNANSWERED AND THE UNFINISHED STILL FAR OUTSTRIP OUR COLLECTIVE COMPREHENSION...” [80] (http://1.usa.gov/1eyRLTK). [226]
Doubling E:
“ ...THE FIRST DOUBLING OF THAT KNOWLEDGE TOOK PLACE ABOUT 1700 A.D. THE SECOND DOUBLING OCCURRED AROUND THE YEAR 1900. IT IS ESTIMATED TODAY THAT THE WORLD'S KNOWLEDGE BASE WILL DOUBLE AGAIN BY 2010 AND AGAIN AFTER THAT BY 2013...” [37] (http://bit.ly/1iptmkn). [226]
Doubling F:
“...[THERE IS A] DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS [REGARDING THE TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT OF] SOLAR ENERGY BY APPLYING NANOTECHNOLOGY TO SOLAR PANELS...” [177] (http://bit.ly/1jgckIJ). Brackets are of the author. [226]
Doubling G:
“...NANO-GENETIC SEQUENCING DATA … IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR...” [177] (http://slidesha.re/1f3MUH2). [226]
Doubling I:
“...KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING BY EVERY FOURTEEN MONTHS...” [177] (http://bit.ly/1dc8Zb4). [226]
Doubling J:
“...MORE THAN THE DOUBLING OF COMPUTATIONAL POWER [IS TAKING PLACE] EVERY YEAR...” [177] (http://bit.ly/1mn8Btl). Brackets are of the author. [226]
Doubling K:
“...Like Moore’s Law for silicon electronics, which says that computers are growing exponentially smaller and more powerful every year, molecular systems developed with DNA nanotechnology have been doubling in size roughly every three years,...” says Professor Erik Winfree at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech). [197] (http://bit.ly/1f3NEMq). [217] [226]
END OF CITATIONS.
N.B.: In no way am I suggesting to be amused by these forceful technological innovations and changed changes above. These are only forces, beyond the material control of any single human, that are seriously observed and considered by me.
NOTWITHSTANDING, THE HUMAN RACE MUST DECIDE WHICH DETERMINATION TO MAKE ABOUT SAID FORCES QUICKLY.
To the end above, Prof. Gary Hamel, Ph.D. argued, “...Denial is tragic. Delay is deadly ...”
And Albert Einstein determined, “...It has become appallingly obvious that our technology has exceeded our humanity … We shall require a substantially new manner of thinking if mankind is to survive....”
And Dr. Aubrey de Grey PhD. establishes, “...To solve a very complicated problem, you generally need a fairly complicated [and complex] solution [in advance]..." Brackets are of the author.
If we are to succeed in the contemporary and forthcoming times, we MUST radically break with the past.
By what we just have seen above, all these dramatic changes and emerging forces bestow unprecedented, persistent and frontier-breaking new risks, challenges, problems, opportunities, benefits and progress.
To seize and exploit the upsides and to cope with the downsides optimally, there needs to be, as it has never been before in recorded history, a collective group of prepared-minded managers in place.
All these scientific and technological doubling of breakthroughs and discoveries entail, as the casual observer is not paying detailed attention, that in the preceding process current knowledge and wisdom are becoming obsolete by the nanosecond, giving birth to new notions.
For instance, with the initial advent of NASA, it is argued that in its beginnings the agency added 10,000 new words to the English language.
In a similar fashion, it is reasoned that Shakespeare, as well, added about 10,000 new words to our relished Anglicized Lingua Franca.
As well:
The reader is welcome to a new “...normal...” and a new “...abnormal....”
In all verisimilitude, there are many new “...normals...” and “...abnormals...” (both within scientific normality) for EVERY MANAGER to fundamentally cope with, being the latter, incidentally, marshaled as well within (a) normality, (b) normalcy and (c) normalness.
THE HARDCORE POV HEREBY RESUMES NOW.
Churchill observed that we must get prepared when we cannot predict. Hence, we need to discern the dynamic driving forces (not so-called “...trends...”) reshaping the present and future and their impacts on our institutions, industries, organizations and professions TODAY.
Speaking now of dynamic driving forces, let us peruse this definition:
"...Dynamic Driving Forces are forces outside the firm (external factors) that trigger the change of strategy in an organization. Industry conditions change because important forces (the most dominant ones that have the biggest influence on what kinds of changes will take place in the industry’s structure and competitive environment) are driving industry participants (competitors, customers, or suppliers) to alter their actions, and thus the driving forces in an industry are the major underlying causes of changing industry and competitive conditions. Driving forces analysis has two steps: identifying what the driving forces are and assessing the impact they will have on the industry .... The Most Common Dynamic Driving Forces include: 1. The Internet and new e-commerce opportunities and threats it breeds in the industry; 2. Increasing globalization of the industry; 3. Changes in the long-run industry growth rate; 4. Changes in who buys the products and how they use it. 5. Product innovation; 6. Technological change; 7. Market innovation; 8. Entry or exit of major firms; 9. Diffusion of technical know-how across more companies and more countries; 10. Changes in cost and efficiency. 11. Growing buyer for preferences for differentiated products instead of a commodity product (or for a more standardized product instead of strongly differentiated products); 12. Regulatory influences and government policy changes; 13. Changing societal concerns, attitudes, and lifestyles; 14. Reductions in uncertainty and business risk ... Other dynamic driving forces include geologic, climatological, political, geopolitical, demographic, social, ethical, economic, technological, financial, legal and environmental forces, among others …"
Besides:
Every time we deal we dynamic driving forces, we should, by the way, contemplate the business-like notion of point of inflection.
Ergo, I will offer this definition:
BEGINNING:
“...Inflection point is a moment of dramatic change, especially in the development of a company, industry, or market ... And/or a time of significant change in a situation; a turning point … A moment of dramatic change, especially in the development of a company, industry, or market … A point on a chart that marks the beginning of a significant move, either up or down … An event that results in a significant change in the progress of a company, industry, sector, economy or geopolitical situation. An inflection point can be considered a turning point after which a dramatic change, with either positive or negative results, is expected to result. Companies, industries, sectors and economies are dynamic and constantly evolving. Inflection points are more significant than the small day-to-day progress that is made and the effects of the change are often well-known and widespread … Andy Grove, Intel's co-founder, described a strategic inflection point as '...an event that changes the way we think and act …' … What Intel's Grove calls '...strategic inflection point …, AA terms « ... Sputnik Moment inflection point … » ... Inflection points can be a result of action taken by a company, or through actions taken by another entity, that has a direct impact on the company. Regulatory changes, for instance, could lead to an inflection point for a corporation that was previously held back by regulatory compliance issues. Inflection points in technology include the advent of the Internet and smart phones. Politically, an inflection point can be illustrated by the fall of the Berlin Wall or the fall of Communism in Poland and other Eastern Bloc countries ...”
END.
This we, all managers in general, must observe daily without a fail and increasingly so.
In addition:
The “...increasingly so...” MUST be nonlinear and supremely exponential.
According to mathematics, nonlinear entails, “...not in a straight line...” (that is, that “...grows...” geometrically or exponentially).
Our intuitions are outright linear while this contemporaneous world is ruthlessly nonlinear.
Many have a major difficulty in underrating and practically coping with this notion.
Nonlinear events, happenings, changes and dynamic driving forces have asymmetrical consequences and ramifications beyond conception by the normal-mode of the linear intuitive human mind.
Asymmetries mean disproportionableness that are only understood and coped with through nonlinear modes of thinking.
Stated simply, nonlinear growth equates to most unevenly explosive growth.
By being future literate I don't mean to contemplate what is going to happen in the year 2045.
I am interested in the “now” locus and in the immediate-term future and in the medium-term future and in the long-term future and in the “ … all out ...”-term future.
When one is developing a cohesive business plan, Doesn't he / she need to envision a three- or five-year period?
Isn't the elaboration of a business plan a foremost (future-driven) minimal management responsibility and a skill?
I can offer a tsunami of unimpeachable brick-and-mortar and digital literature to assert that the term "now" is already besieged by futuristic forces as we speak.
Yes, they will greatly change the future even further and in unpredictable ways.
These futuristic forces are easily observed on the local newspapers too.
The “now” moment and the stemmed “continuum” are hijacked by surreptitiously aggressive future-focused dynamics.
“...Here and Now...” is, put simply, the endless entry point into the future.
As a result, Marcus Aurelius Antoninus commented,
“...Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present ...”
And as a consequence, German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche indicated,
“...It’s our future that lays down the law of our today..."
NIETZSCHE IS HEREWITH SUGGESTING THAT THE PRESENT IS A FUNCTION OF THE FUTURE.
For instance, the workforce of managers and the respective management competitors will also be transformed beyond the reader's wildest dreams.
Competition right now is and will be a major confrontational issue (as in an “attrition war”).
By way of illustration, and in addition to the so-called “...talent war...,” the pervasive competition is today stemming from advanced robotics and computing and other forms of automation.
These three fields are under the ruthless tutelage of Strong Artificial Intelligence, including Strong Quantum Supercomputing!
When the human brain and body get reverse-engineered, A.I. will never be competed against by the human thought.
Strong Artificial Intelligence will be propelled on “steroids” by the defense ministries and intelligentsia and counter-intelligentsia incumbents of nearly all major nations, including those of the BRIC and CIVETS countries.
Another major factor to outstandingly consider is rampant globalization.
This dynamic driving force is incessantly changing the managerial landscape everywhere.
And the always-daring global economic crisis, a great universal threat yet, daily shocks us with its random “...behavior...” and continuous looming.
Many rosy futurologist call it “...the global downturn...” by way of exercising one “...desperately hopeful...” euphemism.
They only want to be the heralds of “...good news....” without outright and fundamental coping with vast human-made existential risks.
The global economic crisis couldn't be any graver around the entire planet. And one of the world's favorite reserve currency is running immense perils, too.
Whatever is happening in the West, China and India are, at the moment and by way of example, drastically booming.
As an important point to note, the Futurologist Gerald Celente advises,
“...If you don't attack the future [today], the future will attack you...”
And John Galsworthy said,
“...If you don't think about the future, you cannot have one....” Brackets are of the author.
Is there future clever? Who can we ask about it?
Patrick Dixon says, “...Take hold of the future or the future will take hold of you — be futurewise ...” [96]
In fact, if there is not a planetary calamity (what I warmly like to call the “caveat”) occurring (I hope this never happens), we are anyway currently beginning to eyewitness the dawn of a new civilization (requiring new managerial mind-sets, knowledge, skills and talents).
Some existential risks might preclude this new earthling civilization to further originate and develop.
That new civilization will be in place in the near future and there will be, among other “beings,” enhanced humans, bots and transbiologicals (biologicals who has transcend their own biology, paraphrasing Kurzweil).
We must NOW get prepared for the worst-case scenario and expect a not too wild worst-case scenario.
To this notion, GBN’s CEO Eamonn Kelly explains,
“...We have globalized the economy and culture, but we have not yet globalized our sense of ourselves ...” [89]
Now, we must concentrate, as a laser-beam pointing precision, on the upsides by the Technological Singularity as well as the downsides by the Disruptional Singularity.
If managers understood and applied solemnity, among many things they would never have to study or get trained, say, on invaluable leadership, since solemnity encompasses it all.
Government, conflict and complexity. What role do governments play pertaining to these singularities?
“...Government policies are influential in the macroscopic risks that threaten our lives. As a society has been transferred from simple agrarianism to a complex technologically-driven living standard, competing special interests force the government to make compromises that inevitably create risks — even the risk of war....” [226]
By way of illustration:
As we speak about disruptions, an unknown thinker pointed out,
" ...We are walking toward the edge of a cliff —blindfolded. Our ability to understand the potential for future abrupt changes in climate is limited by our lack of understanding of the processes that control them ..." [224]
TODAY, WANTING TO BE A TRUE MANAGER IS A GARGANTUAN AMBITION IF ACTUAL AND SUSTAINED SUCCESS IS A CLEAR OBJECTIVE AND GOAL.
NEW MANAGERIAL REVOLUTIONARIES ARE EXTREMELY MOBILIZED INTO PURPOSEFUL CAUSES.
THEY POSSES ACCESS TO AUSPICIOUS KNOWLEDGE IN GRAVELY IGNORED FLANKS.
When I get hired by an institutional client, TAIRM deeply considers the “...human factor...” I am more interested in the human factor before than after the disruption.
Revising the Human Factor and Human Mistake, hominids are:
1.- “Dumb”, according to Ted Turner.
2.- “...Flawed...”, according to Dr. Henry Mintzberg.
3.- “...Unstable and unpredictable...”, according to NASA.
4.- “...Future illiterate...”, according to Alvin Toffler.
5.- “...Political animal...”, according to Aristotle.
6.- “... Man, incurable futurist [meaning futurologist], is the only traditionalist animal ...”, according to Antonio Machado. Brackets are of the author.
7.- “ … Humans Are Weird …. Humans are creatures of habit with an insatiable need to see familiarity in other people's actions ...”, according to Dr. Stephen Covey.
8.- “ … Humans are biological off-spring ...”, according to Alvin Toffler.
9.- According to London Business School Prof. Gary Hamel, PhD., humans are (or are into):
9.1.- “... animal husbandry …”
9.2.- “ … social creatures ...”
9.3.- “ … amazingly adaptable ...”
9.4.- “ … creative and humans can choose ...”
Returning to the hardcore:
Insurance and reinsurance companies deal lightly with post-loss human factor.
TAIRM thoroughly considers post mortem and ex-ante analyzes.
IN DEALING WITH THE “...HUMAN FACTOR...,” RISKS AND THE FUTURES AND MANY OTHER SIGNIFICANT FACTORS IN THE HANDS OF MANAGERS, TAIRMS PREEMPTIVELY MAKE THE CLIENT UNDERGO ABUNDANT “...LITMUS TESTS...” ON SECOND ONE AND ONWARD, THAT IS IN ORDER TO DULY AND IN ADVANCE PREPARE THE CLIENT’S ORGANIZATION TOWARDS ANY CHALLENGES, PROBLEMS, FUTURES, RISKS, PRINCIPLES, PROCESSES, CONTENTS, CONTEXTS, PRACTICES, TOOLS, TECHNIQUES, OPPORTUNITIES, BENEFITS, REWARDS, GROWTH AND PROGRESS.
ALL OF THE PRIOR OBSERVING THE IMMEDIATE TERM, THE MEDIUM TERM AND THE LONG TERM.
There is an additional matter of considerable concern under the TAIRM's framework.
Thinkers and authors such as Drucker, Toffler and Covey, among others, have energetically gone public about the critical importance of using words that address the unfailingly underlying meaning of targeted ideas.
It is, as a result, indispensable to me (and TAIRM) avoiding the “ … illusion of meaning ...” and hence communicating through most unambiguous parlance.
For example, there is a major nation in the Western Hemisphere in which its in-general-and-at-large society's “ ...living...” language usage involves a great number of clichés, idioms, colloquialisms, regionalisms (spoken and written, of), traditionalisms (spoken and written, of) and other idiomatic expressions (spoken and written, of) that, as per the most authoritative own native linguists, semanticists, language experts and professors, do not unfortunately configure, in all rigorousness, the standard parlance of the official language here coped with.
The preceding paragraph is a great negative encouragement to deal with a world mired by hard science, high tech and complexity. There is huge complexity now by geopolitical hazards as well as Cold War II is reaffirming its own birth and rogue ruling.
Accordingly and dealing with the non-standard usage of language and other amenities, Dr. Carl Sagan, PhD., by way of example, expressed,
“...We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows about science and technology...”
Ergo, non-standard languages are a function of societies fighting against science and technology.
Ergo, I put forward that it is impossible to live against the dictum by Dr. Sagan in contemporary days. I also believe that leaders and managers are going to need without a fail and with extreme seriousness, in many cases, Rocket Science.
Another aspect of TAIRM is to exercise gigantic attentive listening to the client and others related to him or her.
If the language within a major petroleum refinery is ambiguous, irresponsibly miscomprehended operational communications stemming from such petroleum refinery can terminate with the human life and bringing about, say, 100,000 fatalities (living in peripheral cities), not counting the installation's workers and contractors as well as the property damages.
When instituting the TAIRM methodology, I develop and give the client a glossary of agreed-upon terms with their definitions.
This glossary will be used during training, indoctrination and service (fundamental turnkey solution) in order to communicate back and forth with a universally in-agreement, consistent and congruent sense.
My clients under TAIRM enjoy a practical and continuous knowledge transfer from me beyond initial training and indoctrination.
Clients committed to accessing the sustained and progressive efficiencies, benefits, rewards and opportunities, as well as the respective durable advantages, of “...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management...” will receive vast (a) executive training and (b) technical indoctrination by me.
“...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management...” is only for serious go-getter clients.
Just a thought, the crucially important client's officer to TAIRM is not the CFO, but the Chairman and CEO.
The CFO, the Human Resources Officer, the I.T. Officer (CIO), CTO, and every other officer (manager) of “...function...” and incumbent of “...line...” will be, as well, properly trained, indoctrinated and coped with.
To people that wish a quick and simple start-up overview on the future, I powerfully suggest to begin reading Alvin Toffler's “...Future Shock...” book.
On 1985 that book taught me that insurance losses (un-managed risks) could, to a greater degree, be better either eliminated or mitigated or, at least, modulated.
I was then thinking about petroleum and petrochemical equipments and installations, including oil refineries and oil wells, automotive and logistical factories, facilities and many other industrial plants and organizations.
Crucial infrastructure coped with through beyond-insurance risk management includes that of IT or data processing, such as data centers.
As an insurance major and a manager to me so-called “...insurance...” is not “...risk protection...” but a financial device that just PARTLY indemnifies you from SOME losses and ONLY SOMETIMES and only to SOME degree.
AND “LOSS INDEMNITY” IS NEVER RISK MANAGEMENT.
In my case, a loss (disruption potential) is the un-managed and uncontrolled unleashing of pent-up energy.
Once pent-up energy is unleashed, it can create (upside risks) or destruct (downside risks).
To this end, one helpful insight to the reader might be this:
“...It would be hard to find anyone who believes that losses occur without any cause. Yet many managers, acting as though an accident is a random stroke of fate, have to be reminded to seek and remove causes prior to a loss. Less obvious to the layman is the idea that nearly all accidental losses have a multiple causes: virtually no accident has a single cause .... Identifying causes, especially those that are subtle or unseen, requires tenacity, imagination, and a systematic method. However, since almost every accident or loss has a known precedent, you never have to start your search for causes empty-handed...” [226].
To cope with the future is to cope with changed changes (upside risks and downside risks) today.
And the entirety of the planet is now inundated with massive, increasing changed changes omnipresently.
All incumbents and practitioners must perceive that management is turning itself into a highly scientific field and practice without a fail.
Believe it or not, management is literally going into applied “...Rocket Science...”
By way of example, the expression “...Keep It Simple, Stupid...” has been radically replaced by “...Keep It Scientific, Savant...”
And notions as those of Thomas Paine's “...common sense...” are now absurd and rendered ineffectual and counterproductive by representatives of numberless institutions such as DARPA, NASA, MIT and Stanford University.
Common sense is radically replaced by APPLIED SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE.
So called "...out of the box..." thinking is impious and outrageous mediocrity by the 21st-century standards and practices.
"...Out of the box..." thinking will bankrupt you or your government easily and without a fail.
And the “...power of simplicity...,” unless is applied by a consummated polymath, is a chat about rubbish.
We live in a world in which the Power of Complexity, Randomness and Pseudo-Randomness rules dictatorially.
Managing is an art, practice, methodology, technology and science.
That's why Futures Studies, Foresight Research and Scenario Planning are managerial disciplines seriously observed by the United Nations and the advanced enterprises in the world.
Shell is a miniscule good example of this plethora of global enterprises.
I firmly believe that management today is in a gargantuan challenge. More so than before because of the massive, ubiquitous changes affecting society and economy.
Change is going abusively “...auto...” and “...techno...” and “...in vivo...” and “...infotech...” and “...cyborg...” and “...digital...” and “... neuro...” and “...bio...” and “...transbio...” and “...nano...” and “...nanotech...” I am not afraid to proclaim.
And wait until the scientific and technological convergence takes place even further.
BEYOND THE MANAGERIAL CHALLENGES (DOWNSIDE RISKS) BESTOWED BY THE EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGIES AS IT IS UNDERSTOOD IN THE TECHNOLOGICAL SINGULARITY AND ITS INHERENT FUTURISTIC FORCES IMPACTING THE PRESENT AND THE FUTURE NOW, THERE ARE ALSO SOME GRAVE GLOBAL RISKS THAT MANY FORMS OF MANAGEMENT HAVE TO TACKLE WITH IMMEDIATELY.
I must insist that the as-of-now Disruptional Singularity might preclude the Technological Singularity.
THESE GRAVE GLOBAL RISKS HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH ADVANCED SCIENCE OR TECHNOLOGY. MANY OF THESE HAZARDS STEM FROM NATURE AND SOME ARE, AS WELL, CHIEFLY MAN MADE AND ENFORCED BY UNIVERSAL POLITICAL CORRUPTION.
FOR INSTANCE, THESE GRAVE GLOBAL RISKS ─ EMBODYING THE DISRUPTIONAL SINGULARITY ─ ARE GEOLOGIC, CLIMATOLOGICAL, POLITICAL, GEOPOLITICAL, DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIAL, ETHICAL, ECONOMIC, FINANCIAL, LEGAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL, AMONG OTHERS.
To this purpose, Dr. Robert A. Collins, Ph.D. comments,
“...Disasters are a natural and predictable part of the human condition. This includes both natural disasters and human-made disasters. In spite of this, whenever a disaster strikes, most people are unprepared. The inevitable result is the loss of life and property. It does not have to be this way .... SINCE DISASTERS ARE AN INEVITABLE PART OF LIFE, THE WISEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO UNDERSTAND THEM, PREPARE FOR THEM, AND CAPITALIZE ON THE OPPORTUNITIES THAT THEY PRESENT. The first and most important step in disaster planning is, obviously, to have a plan. Without a specific plan, it will be very difficult, if not impossible, to implement the other steps in disaster preparation. Most organizations deal with disasters by first hoping that they don’t happen. Then when they do happen, they respond to them and try to recover from them. MOST ORGANIZATIONS DO NOT TRY TO MITIGATE THEM IN ADVANCE. THIS IS AN IRRATIONAL AND EXPENSIVE STRATEGY .... It is impossible to plan for things that you cannot imagine. Therefore, the first step in forging the resilient organization is to conduct ‘scenario planning’ .... It is necessary for the organization to be honest with itself when completing the scenario planning step in disaster preparation. THE TASK HERE IS NOT TO IMAGINE THE WORST DISASTER THAT THE ORGANIZATION THINKS THAT IT CAN HANDLE. THE TASK IS TO IMAGINE THE WORST DISASTER THAT COULD POSSIBLE STRIKE THE COMPANY, GIVEN ITS GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION AND INDIVIDUAL CIRCUMSTANCES. Lee Clarke, a disaster planning expert and professor at Rutgers University argues, ‘IT’S NOT CRAZY TO THINK ABOUT THE WORST CASES [IN ADVANCE]’ ...” [124] Brackets are of the author.
Is there an example of disruption-potential and post-‘risk management’?
“...You may remember the situation in 1982 when seven people in the U.S. died from ingesting Tylenol that had been laced with cyanide. The nation panicked. Some predicted that Johnson & Johnson would never be able to sell another product under that name. But Johnson & Johnson took responsibility for the situation. They immediately alerted consumers to stop using Tylenol until they could determine the extent of the tampering. They recalled approximately 31 million bottles of Tylenol, retailing at more than $100 million. They offered to exchange all Tylenol capsules that had already been purchased for Tylenol tablets, which cost them millions more. They established relations with law enforcement officers on every level to help search for the person who laced the medication and to help prevent further tampering. They put up a reward of $100,000 for the person who committed the crime. When they reintroduced the product back in the market, it had new triple-seal, tamper-resistant packaging. As a result of their actions, they turned what could have been a disaster into a victory in credibility and public trust ...” [196].
Can we take advantage of risk and benefit from management with immense forethought and never in expensive hindsight?
Verify this:
“ ... Journalist Geoffrey Colvin (2005) argues: '…The events that do the worst damage are the one no even conceived of … The idea that a passenger jet might crash into the World Trade Center had been thought of; it was a fairly obvious possibility, especially since a plane once crashed into the Empire State Building. What no one imagined was the combination of large planes with nearly full fuel tanks plus the impact of the crashes jarring fireproofing from the girders, and how this could bring the towers down. In retrospect, it obviously could have been imagined. I’ just wasn’t'...” [124]
How are these speedy and somewhat dramatic times shaping and re-shaping us?
“... Journalist Amy Bernstein (2006) point out, ‘…Few issues have morphed as dramatically in the last five year as corporate resilience. That phrase once refereed to managing risks that were fairly predictable and relatively easy to insure against: fires, strikes, and economic recessions for example. But all that has changed. A string of catastrophes — beginning with the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, and continuing through the bombing of the Madrid railway and the Asian Tsunami in 2004, the blast on the London Underground in July 2005, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in August and September, and the earthquake that devastated Pakistan in October 2005 — has rearranged our concept of disaster preparedness. It’s no longer enough for companies to devise a business continuity plan and file it away somewhere. THEY NOW HAVE TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO BOUNCE BACK FROM THE UNTHINKABLE.’...” [124]
What are the relevant considerations that we insist on ignoring beyond any irresponsibility concerning advanced beyond-insurance risk management (the exact opposite of insurance-based risk unmagement)?
“...Yossi Sheffi, Professor of Systems Engineering at MIT, conducted a three year study of resilient organizations from Toyota to UPS to the US Navy, and drew a simple conclusion: A COMPANY’S ABILITY TO RETURN TO BUSINESS DEPENDS MORE ON THE DECISIONS IT MAKES BEFORE A SHOCK HITS THAN THOSE IT MAKES DURING OR AFTER THE EVENT… According to Sheffi, the terrorist attacks of 9/11 forced him and his colleagues to see a more comprehensive view of risk. He states: ‘Before that, I thought about it mostly in financial terms — buying insurance against various business risks, buying commodity futures such as oil to hedge against price fluctuations, the use of financial derivatives, etc. In the wake of the attacks, I starred looking at all kinds of disruptions, and it became clear that there’s a lot more to consider than contingency planning or financial hedging. THERE ARE LOW-PROBABILITY/HIGH IMPACT EVENTS like terrorist attacks that may cause unplanned exists from important markets or even the demise of the unprepared business’ .... During MIT’s three year study on resilient companies and interviews with dozens of companies, found that a culture of resilience was a common element. He argues, ‘The essence of resilience is the containment of disruption and recovery from it. Culture contributes to resilience by endowing employees with a set of principles regarding the proper response when the unexpected does occur, and when the formal organization’s policy does not cover the situation at hand or is too slow to react, it suggests the course of action to take’ ...” [124].
THE DISRUPTIONAL SINGULARITY'S MAJOR RISKS ARE GRAVELY THREATENING US RIGHT NOW, NOT LATER.
Vast grave hazards by the Disruptional and Technological Singularities are also the combined downsides by and to the globalization, as well.
By a folly move by Western Europe the Euro-Asian superpower was awaken and activated the World's Cold War II.
Many national security advisers and diplomats, along with their majestic statesmen and stateswomen, gravely ignore to remember that Napoleon Bonaparte' and Adolf Hitler's armies invaded Russia through Crimea.
New science and its intrinsic risks are further discussed herewith (to some extent). Please see the following accordingly:
In a related manner, Cambridge University' and Royal Society's Sir Martin Rees, Ph.D. noticed,
“...Science is emphatically not, as some have claimed, approaching its end; it is surging ahead at an accelerating rate. We are still flummoxed about the bedrock nature of physical reality, and the complexities of life, the brain, and the cosmos. New discoveries, illuminating all these mysteries, will engender benign applications; but will also pose NEW ETHICAL DILEMMAS AND BRING NEW HAZARDS ...”
And Sir Rees adds:
“ … How will we balance the multifarious prospective benefits from genetics, robotics, or nanotechnology against the risk (albeit smaller) of triggering utter disaster? .... Science is advancing faster than ever, and on a broader front: bio-, cyber- and nanotechnology all offer exhilarating prospects; so does the exploration of space. BUT THERE IS A DARK SIDE: NEW SCIENCE CAN HAVE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES; IT EMPOWERS INDIVIDUALS TO PERPETRATE ACTS OF MEGATERROR; EVEN INNOCENT ERRORS COULD BE CATASTROPHIC. THE ‘DOWNSIDE’ FROM TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY TECHNOLOGY COULD BE GRAVER AND MORE INTRACTABLE THAN THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR DEVASTATION THAT WE HAVE FACED FOR DECADES. AND HUMAN-INDUCED PRESSURES ON THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT MAY ENGENDER HIGHER RISKS THAT THE AGE-OLD HAZARDS OF EARTHQUAKES, ERUPTIONS, AND ASTEROID IMPACTS ...”
A simpler and still a practical way to view complexity:
Dr. Stephen Jay Gould argues, “...Once you build a complex machine [intricate fundamental mechanism], it can perform so many unanticipated tasks. Build a computer ‘for’ processing checks at the plant, and it can also … whip anyone’s ass [or at least then them perpetually] in tic-tac-toe....” [187]. Brackets are of the author.
To underpin the motion by Sir Martin Rees further, see also the following.
The term Technological Singularity ( http://bit.ly/1hF6Vpe ) entered the popular science culture with the 1993 presentation at the VISION-21 Symposium sponsored by NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio Aerospace Institute, March 30-31, 1993, by Professor of Mathematics Vernor Vinge (San Diego University).
Correspondingly, Professor Vinge, PhD. indicated, “...Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended … Is such progress avoidable? If not to be avoided, can events be guided so that we may survive? These questions are investigated. Some possible answers [and some further dangers] are presented...” Brackets are of the author.
San Diego University Scholar, Professor, Mathematician and Published Author Vernor Vinge, PhD. was the primordial scientist in coining the " ...Technological Singularity..." concept in his «...Marooned in Realtime...» book under ISBN-13: 978-0765308849.
An even deeper exploration on existential risks is better achieved through the reading of the following three materials:
1.- "...Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning...” By Sir Martin Rees, PhD. at http://lnkd.in/bHkBp4S
2.- "...Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios..." By Professor Nick Bostrom, PhD. at http://lnkd.in/RsNRmm
3.- “...Prophets of Doom...” available at http://lnkd.in/bfpzAdx
THEREFORE, PRACTITIONERS AND INCUMBENTS FORCEFULLY NEED TO MOST URGENTLY AND CONCURRENTLY MANAGE A MYRIAD OF GLOBAL RISKS IN PARALLEL (SIMULTANEOUSLY) BY BOTH THE DISRUPTIONAL SINGULARITY AND THE TECHNOLOGICAL SINGULARITY.
THIS IS ULTIMATELY AND DESPERATELY IMPORTANT!
Consequently, Dr. Gary Hamel, PhD. indicates,
“...What distinguishes our age from every other is not the world-flattening impact of communications, not the economic ascendance of China and India, not the degradation of our climate, and not the resurgence of ancient religious animosities. RATHER, IT IS A FRANTICALLY ACCELERATING PACE OF CHANGE...”
CONCLUSIONS:
(PLEASE SEE THE ENTIRE INFORMATION ENSUING RIGHT AFTER THIS).
In addition to being aware and adaptable and resilient before the driving forces reshaping the current present and the as-of-now and contemporary-time future and present, THERE ARE SOME EXTRA MANAGEMENT SUGGESTIONS THAT I CONCURRENTLY PRACTICE:
1.- Given the vast amount of insidious risks, futures, challenges, principles, processes, contents, contexts, practices, tools, techniques, benefits, rewards and opportunities, there needs to be a full-bodied practical and applicable methodology (methodologies are utilized and implemented with the utter purpose of solving complex problems and to facilitate the decision-making and anticipatory process).
Arguably, Dakota tribal wisdom and decision making:
“...Dakota tribal wisdom says that when you discover you’re on a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount. Of course, there are other strategies. You can change riders. You can get a committee to study the dead horse. You can benchmark how other companies ride dead horses. You can declare that it’s cheaper to feed a dead horse. You can harness several dead horses together. But after you’ve tried all these things, you’re still going to have to dismount...”
Then:
The manager must always address issues with a panoramic view and must also exercise the envisioning of both the whole and the granularity of details, along with the embedded (corresponding) interrelationships and dynamics (that is: [i] interrelationships and dynamics of the subtle, discrete and non-discrete, [ii] interrelationships and dynamics of the overt and [iii] interrelationships and dynamics of the covert).
Both dynamic complexity and detail complexity, along with fuzzy logic, must be pervasively considered, as well.
To this point, it is wisely argued,
“...You can’t understand the knot without understanding the strands, but in the future, the strands need not remain tied up in the same way as they are today...”
For instance, disparate skills, talents, dexterities and expertise won't suffice ever.
A cohesive and congruent, yet proven methodology (see the one above) must be optimally implemented.
Subsequently, the Chinese proverb indicates,
“...Don't look at the waves but the currents underneath...”
2.- One must always be futurewise and technologically fluent. Don't fight these extreme forces, just use them!
One must use knowledge-mired counter-intuitiveness (geometrically non-linearly so), insight, hindsight, foresight and far-sight in every day of the present and future (all of this in the most staggeringly exponential mode).
By the way, counter-intuitiveness and sixth sense have no gender.
To shed some light, I will share two quotes as well.
Nevertheless, the Panchatantra (body of Eastern philosophical knowledge) establishes,
“...Knowledge is the true organ of sight, not the eyes....”
And Antonio Machado argues,
“... An eye is not an eye because you see it; an eye is an eye because it sees you …”
Managers always need a clear-eyed and lucid pineal gland's knowledgeable vision.
Did you already connect the dots stemming from the Panchatantra and Machado?
Did you already integrate those dots into your marshable big-picture vista?
As side effect, British Prime Minister W. E. Gladstone considered, “...You cannot fight against the future...”
3.- In all the Manager does, he / she must observe and apply, at all times, a sine qua non maxim,
“...everything is somewhat related to everything else...”
4.- Always manage as if it were a “project.” Use, at all times, the “...Project Management...” approach.
5.- Always use the systems methodology with the applied omniscience perspective.
In this case, David, I mean to assert: The term “ … Science ...” equates to about a 90% of “...Exact Sciences...” and to about 10% of “...Social Sciences...”
All science must be instituted with the engineer's view.
And scientific inquiry is the most advanced application of the enhanced Socratic Method.
6.- Always institute beyond-insurance risk management as you boldly integrate it with your scientific futuring skill and expertise.
7.- In my firmest opinion, the following must be complied this way (verbatim):
The corporate strategic planning and execution (performing) are a function of a grander application of beyond-insurance risk management (the exact opposite of insurance-based risk unmagement).
It will never work well the other way around. TAIRM is the optimal mode to do advanced strategic planning and execution (performing).
TAIRM is not only focused on terminating, mitigating and modulating risks (expenses of treasure and losses of health and life), but also concentrated on bringing under optimal control fiscally-sound, sustainable organizations and initiatives.
TAIRM underpins sensible business prosperity and sustainable efficiency, growth and progress.
8.- I also believe that we must pragmatically apply the scientific method in all we manage to the best of our capacities.
If we are “...MANAGERS...” in a Knowledge Economy and Knowledge Era(*) (not a knowledge-driven eon because of superficial and hollow and shallow caprices of the follies and simpletons), we must thence do extensive and intensive learning and un-learning for Life if we want to succeed and be sustainable.
(*) Some authors argue that this is the “...Age of Innovation...”
As a result, Dr. Noel M. Tichy, PhD. argues, “...Today, intellectual assets trump physical assets in nearly every industry...”
Consequently, Alvin Toffler indicates, “...In the world of the future, THE NEW ILLITERATE WILL BE THE PERSON WHO HAS NOT LEARNED TO LEARN...”
We don't need to be scientists to truly learn some basic principles of actionable advanced science and hi-tech.
Accordingly, Dr. Carl Sagan, PhD. expressed, “...We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows about science and technology...”
And Edward Teller stated, “...The science of today is the technology of tomorrow ...”
And it is also crucial this quotation by Winston Churchill,
“...If we are to bring the broad masses of the people in every land to the table of abundance, IT CAN ONLY BE BY THE TIRELESS IMPROVEMENT OF ALL OF OUR MEANS OF TECHNICAL PRODUCTION...”
I am not a scientist buy I tirelessly, and by several orders of magnitude, support responsible scientists and apply science.
I like scientific and technological knowledge and methodologies a great deal.
9.- In any management undertaking today, and given the universal volatility and rampant and uninterrupted rate of change, one must think and operate in a fluid womb-to-tomb mode.
The manager must think and operate holistically, both systematically and systemically, at all times.
The manager must also be: i) Multidimensional, ii) Interdisciplinary, iii) Cross-disciplinary, iv) Multifaceted, v) Cross-functional, and vi) Multitasking.
That is, the manager must now be an expert state-of-the-art in-all-practicality generalist and erudite.
ERGO, THIS IS THE NEWEST SPECIALIST AND SPECIALIZATION.
Accordingly, the manager must have three or four areas of great expertise while also being able to include and efficiently manage generic and generalizable knowledge of a plethora of fields within his and her management areas of incumbency, directly stemming from his or her organization.
To some extent and degree, Howard Hughes is a good example.
Without a formal education in science and engineering, he anyway could work very well with engineers and scientists. In fact, he really got the best out of them and beyond posterity.
Managers must never manage elements, components or subsystems separately or disparately (that is, they mustn’t ever manage in series).
Everything should be managed in parallel.
Managers must always manage all of the entire system at the time (that is, managing in parallel or simultaneously the totality of the whole at once and always so).
This theorem is highly advisable:
“...A primer on the development, application, and requirement of ‘...systems thinking...’ to obtain an ordered, global [...beyond-insurance...] management perspective — a critical need if historical risk management is to be translated [in advance] from reaction into prevention of risk [many call risks '...problems...'] .... The systems approach is godlike — at least in perspective. It aims to look at any situation with OMNISCIENCE — TOTALITY OF KNOWLEDGE .... Of course, it never succeeds because of human limitations. But the goal remains. And such goal is essential if risk is to be managed effectively. Every possible risk must be considered before systematic management of risk can occur. If this seems grandiose, it isn’t meant to be. In failing to take such a lofty and all-encompassing view, managers are vulnerable to being blind-sided by an overlooked risk while believing that they have everything under control....” [226] Brackets are of the author.
10.- In any profession, beginning with management, one must always and cleverly upgrade his or her learning and education until the last exhale.
An African proverb argues,
“...Tomorrow belongs to the people who prepare for it...”
A DC thought indicates, “...The heritage of the past is the seed that brings forth the harvest of the future...” ─ Inscription from statuary pedestal at National Archives in Washington
And Winston Churchill established,
“...The empires of the future are the empires of the mind...”
And an ancient Chinese Proverb, “...It is not our feet that move us along — it is our minds...”
And Malcolm X observed, “...The future belongs to those who prepare for it today...”
And Leonard I. Sweet considered, “...The future is not something we enter. The future is something we create...”
And finally, James Thomson argued, “...Great trials seem to be a necessary preparation for great duties ...”
In search of those that are instituting a search of a future-wise meaning? Are you?
T. S. Elliot: “...We must never cease from exploring. At the end of all of our exploring will be to arrive at where we began and know the place for the first time ...” [153]
And,
William Shakespeare (Macbeth): “...To-morrow, and to-morrow, and to-morrow, creeps in this petty pace from day to day, to the last syllable of recorded time; and all our yesterdays have lighted fools the way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle! Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage, and then is heard no more; it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing ...” [96]
Fairly sophisticated measures follow:
Every manager should take unprecedented thinkable and unthinkable precautions with the purpose of countermeasuring threats at all times.
By way of example only, it comes very handy Dr. Robert Collins, PhD.'s “...Ten Commandments of Resilience....”
He, accordingly, observes:
I.- Thou Shalt Have a Written Disaster Plan
II.- Thou Shalt Do Cost Benefit Analysis
III.- Thou Shalt Be Fully Insured
IV.- Thou Shalt Search Out and Repair Vulnerable Systems
V.- Thou Shalt Have Redundant Systems
VI.- Thou Shalt Be Mobile
VII.- Thou Shalt Set and Follow Priorities
VIII.- Thou Shalt Not Depend on Others
IX.- Thou Shalt Keep Lines of Communication Open
X.- Thou Shalt Capitalize on Opportunities
XI.- Thou Shalt Concentrate on Completion Through The End. (Leonardo Da Vinci asserted, “ ...Let's first think in completion, and then let's carry on through the end ...”) Item XI.- was researched and written by AA. [221].
XII.- Thou Shalt Follow Precedence insofar that “...Two paradoxes are better than one; they may even suggest a solution ...” Item XII.- was originally generated by Edward Teller. [93]
AT THE END OF THIS MATERIAL, THE READER CAN THEREFATER ACCESS THE WALKTHROUGH MANAGERIAL SUCCESS TENETS (PRINCIPLES) BY THE AUTHOR.
Comprising points 1), 2), 3), 4), 5), 6), 7), 8), 9) and 10) above, I hence composed the following thought some weeks ago:
"...If you do your attitude, you can't do your conscientious awareness. Once your conscientious awareness is done by you, you can then do your attitude. Your attitude will only count if it is practical and concerns actual problem solving and current decision making. Once you do your problem solving and decision making, you can transform your risks. To transform your risks, you need to do your strategy. Once your risks are transformed by you, you can couple your strategy with your futuring. To make your strategy matter-of-fact and morrow-ready, you first need to do your futures. Once the upsides (benefits) and downsides (risks) of the future are done by you, you can overcome your challenges and driving forces in order to seize your benefits, sustainability, growth, profitability and progress. Once you do your benefits, sustainability, growth and profitability, you can do your continuous success and progress..."
OF COURSE, ONE MUST DO HIS / HER ETHICS. WONDERFUL SCIENTIFIC, TECHNOLOGICAL AND MANAGERIAL INITIATIVES FAIL BECAUSE ONE SINGLE INDIVIDUAL IS FLAGRANTLY VIOLATING ETHICS.
IN THE WORLD TODAY THERE ARE MANY HIGH-RANKING PEOPLE, BOTH IN PUBLIC AND PRIVATE OFFICE, UNIVERSALLY VIOLATING ETHICS TO THE MEASURE OF AN EXISTENTIAL RISK TO EARTH IN ITS TOTALITY.
I am neither a moralist, nor an ethicist. I am a firmest believer in the two paragraphs above.
I AM AND WILL ONLY BE A BEYOND-INSURANCE RISK MANAGEMENT CONSULTANT, RESEARCHER, STRATEGIST AND PRACTITIONER WITH AN EMPHATIC FUTURES STUDIES PERSPECTIVE.
Universal violation of ethics in both public and private office is, by way of example, a primordial component (risk) of the Disruptional Singularity.
HOW DOES A 21ST-CENTURY MANAGER MUST EXERCISE HIS OR HER MIND?
Exactly and concisely, by implementing the following at all times:
FIRST. Through Discipline of Thought.
SECOND. Through Discipline of Technique.
THIRD. Through Discipline of Procedure.
To underpin the preceding disciplines, the following explanation is now in place:
“...DISCIPLINE OF THOUGHT .... As might be expected, the first set of disciplines involves thinking. The systems approach employs orderly inductive logic. That simply means to think or reason by going from particular facts to general conclusions. This type of thought is also the backbone of the scientific method. The inverse — deductive thought, which reasons from general principles to specific conclusions — is also used at times. But it is of less importance .... A second mental discipline seeks totality of understanding. The objective of this discipline is omniscience, or unlimited knowledge of a system, its use environments, and its risks. This idealistic goal is never reached, of course, even though is vigorously pursued. Two quite different kinds of understanding are combined .... Theoretically understanding is related to comprehending how all the elements in a system (for example, physical plant, products produced, personnel employed, management policies, and accounting methods) are intended to interact with one another. In contrast, practical understanding is knowing how these factors actually work together in a real world .... The third discipline of thought — continued challenge in depth — emphasizes the fact that professional managers can never relax in the comfort of all their analyzes. Constant vigilance and sustained questioning — ‘What if such and such happens?’ — is essential .... The three disciplines of thought collectively identify the problems that must be solved in the system. They also produce a qualitative picture of the system … DISCIPLINE OF TECHNIQUE .... The problems that have been identified by disciplines of thought are next resolved by a second set of disciplines — those of technique .... Specific mathematical tools used in risk management are not expounded here. However, Boolean algebra and set theory — as well as probabilistic logic, statistical mechanics, and other calculative modeling methods — are widely employed to solve complex problems [‘advanced problems’] in a system .... Complexity of most systems also forces the use of system analysis methods to solve difficult problems. Several types (for example, Fault Tree Analysis or Hazard Mode and Effect Analysis) that are used extensively in risk-related issues .... Automatic processing capability by computers makes a considerable technical contribution to solving system problems. For example, many functions formerly performed by people can be much more rapidly and efficiently done by computers .... These three problem-solving techniques, taken together, also produce quantitative assurance that the system is adequate for its intended objectives .... DISCIPLINE OF PROCEDURE … One of the greatest differences between the systems approach to problem solving and other choices lies in this third set of disciplines. In fact, it is the easiest way to tell whether a problem has been attacked systematically or not .... stimulated the establishment of procedural disciplines. Paperwork and records are anathemas to everyone who has to create them. Yet, because of complexity, it is necessary to have a documented trail, for several reasons. First, in complicated situations, objective review by someone other than the person who perform a function is generally required. Second, …, you need it not only for failure analysis but for success analysis as well! Otherwise, you have to always start over at ‘square one.’ .... There are two major disciplines of procedures. The first — system engineering procedural requirements .... Results of work completed — such as Functional Flow Block Diagrams, resource allocation sheets, and trade-off studies — are documented and retained for future reference .... Complete, unambiguous technical writing is another ideal never reached. But to the degree that the documented information is both complete and free from misunderstanding, the decision-making workload is reduced. This is true both at the time of decision and at later times of reconsideration ....” [99] Brackets are of the author.
BRIEFLY AND GENERICALLY STATED, ONE MEETS AND PREVAILS THROUGH FACING AND COPING WITH REALITIES AND BY INSTITUTING — FOR INSTANCE ─ THE FOLLOWING AND SUGGESTED MANAGEMENT ROAD-MAP.
INCIDENTALLY, EVERY REALITY BEFORE THE MANAGER MUST BE BROUGHT UNDER OPTIMAL CONTROL.
As it ensues:
First! Once you realize that the most important thing to nurture is the rotational-and-translational motion revolting within and beyond the innermost core of and by you, you can do your ethics and morality.
Now you have conquered bridge 1. Conquering this foundational pillar also implies that every facet and phase of your personal and professional life will be carried on with dogged solemnity.
Second! Once you do your ethics and morality, you can do your actionable knowledge for Life.
Now you have conquered, and will be, as follows, securing control of bridge 2 for Life.
Third! Once your actionable knowledge is done by you, you can do your corporate planning and respective marshaled strategy.
Now you have conquered, and will be, as follows, securing control of bridge 3 for Life.
Fourth! Once your corporate planning and respective marshaled strategy is done by you, you can do your systems hazard management.
Now you have conquered and will be, as follows, securing control of bridge 4 for Life.
Fifth! Once your systems hazard management is done by you, you can do your systems quality assurance management.
Now you have conquered and will be, as follows, securing control of bridge 5 for Life.
Sixth! Once your cross-functional, interdisciplinary systems quality assurance management is done by you, you can do your systems reliability engineering.
Now you have conquered and will be, as follows, securing control of bridge 6 for Life.
Seventh! Once your systems reliability engineering is done by you, you can do your systems risk management.
Now you have conquered and will be, as follows, securing control of bridge 7 for Life.
Eighth! Once your systems risk management — with the applied omniscience perspective — is done by you, you can do your contingency planning lavishly and with thousand layers of redundancy in place for Life.
Now you have conquered, and will be, as follows, securing control of bridge 8 for Life.
Ninth! When your contingency planning is done by you, you can do your benefits (both upsides and downsides).
Now you have conquered, and will be, as follows, securing control of bridge 9 for Life.
Tenth! When benefits are done by you and you become hyper-engaged into pervasively transformational self-renewal and self-challenging in excelsis of your own intellect, you can do your sustainability perpetually.
Now you have conquered, and will be, as follows, securing control of bridge 10 for Life.
Eleventh! Now you can conceive and design your own profession and tenure while concentrating in capturing womb-to-tomb (so-called) “...success...” and its gargantuan sustainability effort.
Now you have conquered, and will be, as follows, securing control of bridge 11 for Life.
Twelfth! Neither “...the secret,...”, nor the “...hidden secret,...”, nor the “...discrete secret...,” or any “...magnificent marketing stunts...” will warrant the oxygen and energy and vision that your mind, body, and souls require (sic).
Now you have conquered management for Life.
GROUNDBREAKING MANAGEMENT BOOKS I HIGHLY RECOMMEND AND IN THIS SEQUENTIAL ORDER! N.B.: PLEASE NOTE, TOO, THE IMPORTANT MATERIAL ENSUING AFTER THE READING LIST!
Managing Risk: Systematic Loss Prevention for Executives by Vernon L. Grose
Leading the Revolution by Gary Hamel
The Future of Management by Gary Hamel
What Matters Now: How to Win in a World of Relentless Change, Ferocious Competition, and Unstoppable Innovation by Gary Hamel
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge: PMBOK(R) Guide by Project Management Institute
The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology by Ray Kurzweil
Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100 by Michio Kaku
Radical Evolution: The Promise and Peril of Enhancing Our Minds, Our Bodies -- and What It Means to Be Human by Joel Garreau
Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think by Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler
Subsequently and more than ever, own education is learning by doing as it is perpetual studying and researching the books above all of the time and forever. But managers must go, by far, way beyond the books and other resources.
Thus, Napoleon Bonaparte asserted, “...I have only one counsel for you ─ be master...”
In his many letters and beyond his military achievements, Bonaparte indicated that the study of English, Math and Science was instrumental to him and every subject in the Napoleonic Empire.
I consider him the world's best thinker and manager into Systems Approach.
I read a book by a consummated scholar into military science and a professor to the U.S. Armed Forces Academies. He strongly argues that U.S. Military doctrines are based on Napoleon Bonaparte's teachings and practices.
By way of enlightenment, Napoleon Bonaparte (1769 - 1821) declared,
"...No longer it is question simply of education ... NOW IT BECOMES A MATTER OF ACQUIRING SCIENCE ..."
HOW DO WE WALK THE TALK BY AA HERE? PLEASE SEE BELOW FOR A PRACTICAL ILLUSTRATION (SIC.):
THE MANAGER'S HYPOTHETICAL BLUEPRINT TO PRACTICAL SUCCESS CAPTURING:
(1) Picture mentally, radiantly.
(2) Draw outside the canvas.
(3) Color outside the vectors.
(4) Sketch sinuously.
(5) Far-sight beyond the mind’s intangible exoskeleton.
(6) Abduct indiscernible falsifiable convictions.
(7) Reverse-engineering a gene and a bacterium or, better yet, the lucrative genome.
(8) Guillotine the over-weighted status quo.
(9) Learn how to add up ─ in your own brainy mind ─ colors, dimensions, aromas, encryptions, enigmas, phenomena, geometrical and amorphous in-motion shapes, methods, techniques, codes, written lines, symbols, contexts, locus, venues, semantic terms, magnitudes, longitudes, processes, tweets, “...knowledge-laden...” hunches and omniscient bliss, so forth.
(10) Project your wisdom’s wealth onto communities of timeless-connected wikis.
(11) Cryogenize the infamous illiterate by own choice and reincarnate ASAP (multiverse teleporting out of a warped / wormed passage) Da Vinci, Bacon, Newton, Goethe, Bonaparte, Edison, Franklyn, Churchill, Einstein, and Feynman.
(12) Organize relationships into voluntary associations that are mutually beneficial and accountable for contributing productively to the surrounding community.
(13) Practice the central rule of good strategy, which is to know and remain true to your core business and invest for leadership and R&D+Innovation.
(14) Kaisen, SixSigma, Lean, LeanSigma, “...Reliability Engineer...” (the latter as solely conceived and developed by Procter & Gamble and Los Alamos National Laboratories) it all unthinkably and thoroughly by recombinant, a là Einstein Gedanke-motorized judgment (that is to say: Einsteinian Gedanke [“...thought experiments...”].
(15) Provide a road-map and blueprint for drastically compressing (‘crashing’) the time’s ‘reticules’ it will take you to get on the top of your tenure, nonetheless of your organizational level.
(16) With the required knowledge and relationships embedded in organizations, create support for, and carry out transformational initiatives.
(17) Offer a tested pathway for addressing the linked challenges of personal transition and organizational transformation that confront leaders in the first few months in a new tenure.
(18) Foster momentum by creating virtuous cycles that build credibility and by avoiding getting caught in vicious cycles that harm credibility.
(19) Institute coalitions that translate into swifter organizational adjustments to the inevitable streams of change in personnel and environment.
(20) Mobilize and align the overriding energy of many others in your organization, knowing that the “...wisdom of crowds...” is upfront and outright rubbish.
(21) Step outside the boundaries of the framework’s system when seeking a problem’s solution.
(22) Within zillion tiny bets, raise the ante and capture the documented learning through frenzy execution. (23) “...Moonshine...” and “...Skunks-work...” and “...Re-Imagineer...” it all, holding in your mind the motion-pictured image that, regardless of the relevance of “...inputs...” and “...outputs,...”, entails that the highest relevance is within the sophistication within the THROUGHPUT.
(24) Don’t copy Nature and Biology, don’t even copy Universe. Just copy the Omniverse.
(25) Correlate everything else with the ignored and unthinkable ‘else’ of everything else forever.
(26) Combine the practical and technological with the mysterious and meaningful.
(27) Pencil your map.
(28) Brush your road-map.
(29) Scratch your blueprint.
(30) Conceive, develop and share unthinkable lessons learned.
(31) Facilitate a heterogeneous group — in the midst of appalling interpersonal chemistry — towards the accomplishment of a common goal.
(32) Learn complex new skills and new ways to make corporate miracles crystallize.
(33) Typo the cartoon.
(34) Keystroke the drawing.
(35) Acculturate your brain to operate executions from the applied omniscience via the lenses and springs of systems methodology.
(36) Manage RISKS and BENEFITS in series and never in parallel.
(37) Remove accident causes prior to a loss, knowing that an accident is never a random stroke of fate, but an utter and thus purported instrument of ignorance of supine ignorance.
(38) Convert your viewpoint to a systems approach. (39) Enable full-orbed and balanced stability of your thinkables and unthinkables.
(40) Attempt to know, early on, the end from the beginning.
(41) Identify driving forces to make better decisions, manage uncertainty, and profit from change.
(42) Declare the past, recover yesterday, analyze the present, enjoy today, and reinvent tomorrow.
(43) Build your own FUTURE transcending your past.
(44) Contort your mindful, mindless executions — and those in the midst of 'mindful' and 'mindless' executions —, solely out of this world, and solely out of this universe, and solely out of this reality, but not just for the inexpensive, tangential, impious sake of intellectual stunts, but only so that the 'life' has not unfruitful 'afterlife' — so-called —, and also so that the 'world' has no 'afterworld' (as well as, in congruence with the present work, ‘after-universe’ and even ‘after-verse.’) — so-called —. Aren’t afterlife and afterworld dis-intermediated anyway? Now, you, and merely you, proceed and transcend yourself, by yourself and for yourself.
(45) If you really want to make an operational difference in your professional theater of operations, go and get a full immersion in the fringe. Right in there, under that tense and pressing dynamics, you’ll have the vantage flux of the mirage.
(46) Tantalize your tangential pre-cognition and cognition into ever-metamorphosing your attentive and contemplative trans-meditation Zen.
(47) De-realize, thus, de-focus from that taken-for-granted realities of the folly, literally!
(48) Mostly in-source your mind with long-unknown virtualities.
(49) Assure that there are not un-searched areas of risk, benefit and sustainable opportunity.
(59) Acculturate yourself and those in your crew and in the orbit of incumbent stakeholders with most actionable, applied omniscience. Remember culture without science and technology is beyond blind.
(60) Cultivate the highest manifestations of human intelligence: vision, discipline, passion and conscience.
(61) Achieve next-level breakthrough in productivity, innovation and leadership in the marketplace and society.
(62) Develop the internal power and moral authority to break out of those problems to become a significant force in solving them.
(63) Use your voice and deeds to superbly serve your organization’s purposes, functions and stakeholders.
(64) Magnify your current gifts, talents, skills and dexterities.
(65) Take a prior learning for Life, apply it to a new situation, learn from practical experience, and apply the new learning.
(66) Pervasively reason from effect to cause and from cause to effect.
(67) Envision shrewd yet calculated risks, from start to end, to turn downsides into upsides.
(68) “...Exponentialize the rushed and marshaled progression of your own all-rounded, perennial learning curves on the doubles, chiefly those directly concerned with engaging your diverse skills, dexterities, and talents to overcome ─ through fluid execution by mind preparedness ─ your theater of operations because of and by the increasingly threatening surroundings. Otherwise, the onset Technological Revolutions (compounded in a pervasive composite), as explained in «Futuretonium and Futureketing», will give you the hardest time to you and yours. There is realistic and austere hope if we work the hardest and in the most scientific mode.
(69) Figure out exactly which genes and neurons to make synapses with.
(70) Wire up synapses and genes the soonest.
(71) Ask now more sophisticated questions to marshal upon....”
(72) Don't juts copy Nature but focus on copying Biology, Nature and the Omniverse.
Given your clever question, David, and commented simply to you:
“...I am no longer a captive to history.
Whatever I can imagine, I can accomplish.
I am no longer a vassal in a faceless
bureaucracy, I am an activist, not a drone.
I am no longer a foot soldier
in the march of progress.
I am a Revolutionary!...”
IT MUST BE FINALLY NOTED #1:
The beyond-insurance risk management cases above were solved as complete and deep theoretical, practical and empirical knowledge was applied and made a huge difference as per the ultimate outcomes and in-place metrics that were verified by top-ranking stakeholder in the cited organizations.
IT MUST BE FINALLY NOTED #2:
I have seen many corporate cadavers and entrepreneurial and managerial morgues in my professional experience. Beyond the current bibliographic references contained herein, this author has the most breathtaking contingent literature that pales the bibliographical reference included.
IT MUST BE FINALLY NOTED #3:
Readers seeking more updates, insights, information, publications and other resources are very welcome to join the author at LinkedIn's Becoming Aware of the Future! At http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=2131629&trk=my_groups-b-grp-v
David, I hope my independent POV helps. Please note the bibliographical references below.
Mr. Andres Agostini
POINT OF CONTACT: www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini
PROFESSIONAL SERVICE: http://ThisSuccess.wordpress.com
AS A CONSULTANT, MANAGER, STRATEGIST AND RESEARCHER, ANDRES WORKS AND HAS WORKED WITH INSTITUTIONS ─ AND THE RESPECTIVE EXECUTIVES OF SAID ORGANIZATIONS ─ INCLUDING THOSE ONES SUCH AS:
► Toyota,
► Mitsubishi,
► World Bank,
► Shell,
► Statoil,
► Total,
► Exxon,
► Mobil,
► PDVSA, Citgo,
► GE,
► GMAC,
► TNT Express,
► AT&T
► GTE,
► Amoco,
► BP,
► Abbot Laboratories,
► World Health Organization,
► Ernst Young Consulting,
► SAIC (Science Applications International Corporation),
► Pak Mail,
► Wilpro Energy Services,
► Phillips Petroleum Company,
► Dupont,
► Conoco,
► ENI (Italy’s petroleum state-owned firm),
► Chevron,
► LDG Management (HCC Benefits).
► Liberty Mutual (via its own Seguros Caracas)
► MAPFRE (via its own Seguros La Seguridad)
► AES Corporation (via its own Electricidad de Caracas)
BIBLIOGRAPHICAL REFERENCES:
[1] Every quotation and/or citation is attributed to the mentioned author of said quotation.
[2] Sir Francis Bacon (Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, ISBN: 0-19-866185-1
[3] Dr. Bertrand Russell (Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, ISBN: 0-19-866185-1)
[4] Dr. Albert Einstein (Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, ISBN: 0-19-866185-1)
[5] Dr. Buckminster Fuller (Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, ISBN: 0-19-866185-1) and at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[6] Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche (Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, ISBN: 0-19-866185-1) and at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[7] Theodore Roosevelt at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[8] Ralph Waldo Emerson at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[9] Dr. Malcolm Knowles at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[10] Dr. Albert Einstein at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[11] Thomas Jefferson at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[12] Dr. Henry Kissinger at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[13] Sir Winston Churchill at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[14] Antonio Machado from Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, ISBN: 0-19-866185-1.
[15] The Panchatantra (body of Eastern philosophical knowledge) from Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, ISBN: 0-19-866185-1. And at << http://bit.ly/bj0rI1 >>
[16] Bernard d'Espagnat from Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, ISBN: 0-19-866185-1.
[17] Peter Drucker from Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, ISBN: 0-19-866185-1.
[18] Dr. James D. Watson, Ph.D. as he was interviewed by Charlie Rose most recently in year 2009.
[19] Arthur C. Clarke at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[20] Otto Herman Khan at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[21] General Francisco de Miranda from Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, ISBN: 0-19-866185-1.
[22] James Canton, “...Technofutures: How Leading-Edge Innovations Will Transform Business in the 21st Century...” by James Canton (http://amzn.to/bYrN8q )
[23] “...Revolutionary Wealth: How it will be created and how it will change our lives...” by Alvin Toffler and Heidi Toffler (ISBN-10: 038552207X)
[24] Ella Wheeler Wilcox at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[25] “...Future Shock...” by Alvin Toffler (ISBN-10: 0553277375)
[26] “...Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever...” by Ray Kurzweil and Terry Grossman ( ISBN-10: 0140282025 )
[27] “...Transcend: Nine Steps to Living Well Forever...” by Ray Kurzweil Ph.D. and Terry Grossman M.D. (ISBN-10: 1605299561)
[28] “...Leading the Revolution...” by Gary Hamel (ISBN-10: 1591391466)
[29] “...Emotional Intelligence...” by Daniel Goleman (ISBN-10:055309503X )
[30] Criss-cross at Oxford Dictionary ISBN 0-19-861122-6
[31] Crinkum-crankum at Oxford Dictionary ISBN 0-19-861122-6
[32] Terzetto at Oxford Dictionary ISBN 0-19-861122-6
[33] Thé dansant at Oxford Dictionary ISBN 0-19-861122-6
[34] Tertium quid at Oxford Dictionary ISBN 0-19-861122-6
[35] Computronium at http://bit.ly/bvf2AE
[36] Futuretronium at http://bit.ly/aP2VlF
[37] “...Einstein in the Boardroom...” by Suzanne S. Harrison and Patrick H. Sullivan Sr. (ISBN-10: 0-471-70332-X
[38] Tête-à-tête at Oxford Dictionary ISBN 0-19-861122-6
[39] Dilettantes and poseurs at Oxford Dictionary ISBN 0-19-861122-6
[40] “...Why Mars and Venus Collide: Improving Relationships by Understanding How Men and Women Cope Differently with Stress...” by John Gray.
[41] Multiverse at http://bit.ly/2FTBYa
[42] “...The Cycle of Leadership...” by Noel M. Tichy (ISBN0-06-662056-2)
[43] Herman Kahn’s quotations at http://bit.ly/bgxeP0
[44] “...Innovate Like Edison: The Five-Step System for Breakthrough Business Success...” By Michael J. Gelb (ISBN-10: 0452289823)
[45] Déclassé at Oxford Dictionary (ISBN 0-19-861122-6)
[46] Démodé at Oxford Dictionary (ISBN 0-19-861122-6)
[47] Richard Buckminster Fuller at http://bit.ly/amahEh
[48] Yoctosecond, definition of, at http://bit.ly/c5ZMZS
[49] Dr. Pangloss at http://bit.ly/b5LkXL
[50] “...Monster of omniscience...” at page V, first paragraph, Concise Oxford Dictionary (ISBN 0-19-861122-6). Also viewable online at http://bit.ly/Omniscience-Monter-Bibliography
[51] Quotations by Karl Popper at http://bit.ly/d9GdeX
[52] “...Radical Evolution...” by Joel Garreau (ISBN0-385-50965-0).
[53] Definition of “...throughput....” Throughput: Output or production, as of a computer program, over a period of time. The quantity or amount of raw material processed within a given time, esp. the work done by an electronic computer in a given period of time. An amount of work, etc. done in a particular period of time. Volume of data or material handled: the amount of something such as data or raw material that is processed over a given period.
[54] The American Heritage Dictionary’s (fourth edition, 2000)— ISBN 0-395-82517-2
[55] By John F. Kennedy, Address at Rice University on the Nation's Space Effort Delivered in Houston, Texas, September 12, 1962. SOURCE: http://bit.ly/ckBJ4r (seen on June 12, 2007).
[56] “...The Art of The Long View...” ─ ISBN 0-385-26731-2
[57] “...The New Religion of Risk Management...” by Peter L. Bernstein, Harvard Business Review, March-April 1996.
[58] As quoted in title ─ ISBN 978-980-293-503-1
[59] As cited by David Jay's 2006 textbook, “...Mavericks of Medicine...” (ISBN: 1-890572-19-5)
[60] http://bit.ly/LuNRa
[61] Einstein “...on being smart...” at http://bit.ly/EZMFj
[62] “...A Devil’s Dictionary of Business...” (2005) — ISBN 1-56025-712-1 by Nicholas von Hoffman
[63] Original source: http://bit.ly/aEmAkO
[64] Textbook: “...Leading The Revolution...” (ISBN 1-57851-189-5), year 2000, by Gary Hamel
[65] Oxford Dictionary ISBN 0-19-861122-6
[66] Textbook known as “...A Dictionary of Scientific Quotations...” by Alan L. Mackay (ISBN-10: 075031066) in 1991.
[67] Dr. Stephen Hawking was interviewed by CNN's journalist Becky Anderson in year 2009.
[68] http://bit.ly/9aLCB4
[69] “...A Dictionary of scientific quotations...” By Alan Lindsay Mackay - ISBN-10: 0750301066
[70] The Oxford dictionary of quotations - ISBN-10: 0199237174
[71] “...The Book of Positive Quotations,...” 2nd Edition (2007) — ISBN-10: 1577491696
[72] “...The Yale Book Of Quotations...” by Fred R. Shapiro (2006) — ISBN-10: 0300107986
[73] Well said, well spoken: 736 quotable quotes for educators by Robert D. Ramsey (1999) — ISBN-10: 0060194111
[74] Compelling conversations: questions and quotations on timeless topics by Erin Hermann Roth (2007) — ISBN-10: 141965828X
[75] Wit and Wisdom of the American Presidents: A Book of Quotations by Joslyn T. Pine (2000) - ISN-10: 0486414272
[76] The Routledge Dictionary Of Latin Quotations by Jon R. Stone (2004) ISBN-10: 0415969085
[77] Quote Unquote by M.P. Singh (2004) — ISBN: 1557099405
[78] “...Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence...” by Peter Schwartz (2004) — ISBN-10: 1592400698
[79] “...Mind Set...” by John Naisbitt (2008) — ISBN-10: 0061136891
[80] http://bit.ly/2lvo4q
[81] As per David Jay Brown’s text book “...Mavericks of Medicine...” (2006) — ISBN 1-890572-19-5
[82] Singularity: Webster's Quotations, Facts and Phrases By Inc Icon Group International.
[83] http://bit.ly/b3aBN4
[84] Cumputronium at Wikipedia at http://bit.ly/4zTEHn
[85] Multiverse at Wikipedia at http://bit.ly/2FTBYa
[86] James N. Gardner’s “...The Intelligent Universe...” (2007) — ISBN-13: 978-1564149190
[87] Gary Hamel’s textbook “...Competing for the Future...” (1996) — ISBN-10: 0875847161
[88] Gary Hamel’s “...Leading The Revolution...” book — ISBN-10: 1591391466
[89] Eamonn kelly’s book “...Powerful Times...” (2006) — ISBN 0-131-85520-4
[90] http://bit.ly/bLrAOk (bibliography to Fuzzy Logic and Quantum Mechanics)
[91] As cited on “...The Juran Prescription...” by Kathleen Jennison Goonan, M.D. — ISBN 0—7879-0096
[92] Http://Futuretronium.blogspot.com/
[93] http://bit.ly/Past_Vs_Now
[94] http://bit.ly/Industrial-Military-Complex
[95] The State Of The University: Academic Knowledges And The Knowledge Of God (2007) By Stanley Hauerwas, B.D. M.A. M.Phil and Ph.D. — ISBN-10: 0300057253
[96] http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Future
[97] http://www.wfs.org/forecasts.htm
[98] In the Book “...How We Decide...” (2009) by Jonah Lehrer — ISBN 978-0-618-62011-1
[99] “...Managing Risk: Systematic Loss Prevention for Executives...” (1987) — ISBN 0-13-551110-0 by Dr. Vernon Grose, D.Sc.
[100] http://bit.ly/9xPbxJ
[101] http://bit.ly/9yTWk5
[102] Adam Gordon in Book “...Future Savvy ...” ( 2008 ) — ISBN-10: 0814409121
[103] J. Scott Armstrong in book “...Principles of Forecasting...” — ISBN: 0792379306
[104] Bob Seidensticker's book "Future Hype..." (2006) — ISBN-10: 1576753700
[105] Dr. Philip Zimbardo, Ph.D. ’s book “...The Time Paradox...” (2009) — ISBN-10: 1416541993
[106] Hans Moravec’s “...Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence...” (1990) — ISBN-10: 06745761187
[107] David Jay Brown’s “...Mavericks of Medicine...” (2006) — ISBN: 1-890572-19-5
[108] Quotations under this number either has been sent to me via e-mail or have emerged as a result of private interviews.
[109] http://bit.ly/9P6HHB
[110] http://bit.ly/be9kE4
[111] Quotations at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[112] The Adult Learner, Sixth Edition: The Definitive Classic in Adult Education and Human Resource Development by Malcolm S. Knowles Ph.D. (2005) — ISBN-10: 0750678372
[113] Napoleon Bonaparte: A Life By Alan Schom (1998) — ISBN-10: 0060929588
[114] “...Science But Not Scientists...” By Vernon Grose (2006) — ISBN-10: 1425969917
[115] Http://www.jfklibrary.org/
[116] Http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/
[117] Gerard K. O’Neill’s “...The High Frontier...” (2000) — ISBN-10: 189652267x
[118] "Life's Solution: Inevitable Humans in a Lonely Universe" by Simon Conway Morris, Ph.D. — ( 2004) — ISBN-10: 0521603250
[119] “...Frases Celebres Para Toda Ocasión...” (In Spanish, “...Famous Sentences For Every Occasion) ─ (1993) By Rafael Escandon — ISBN 968-13-1285-6
[120] “...Our Final Hour...” (2003) By Sir Martin Rees — ISBN 0-465-0682-6
[121] http://bit.ly/xXGMf
[122] http://bit.ly/aMQjdV
[123] “...A Risk Management Approach to Business Continuity: Aligning Business Continuity with Corporate Governance...” (2006) — ISBN: 1931332363
[124] Dr. Robert A. Collins, Ph.D. ’s “...Resilience: Protecting your Business from Disasters in a Dangerous World...” (2007) — ISBN-10: 0595409245
[125] “...Thinking in Technical Analysis...” (2000) By Rick Bensignor— ISBN-10: 1576600491
[126] http://linkd.in/chnhzH
[127] Source: “...Against The Gods...” (1998 ) — By Peter L. Bernstein — ISBN: 0-471-29563-9
[128] http://bit.ly/9h9prC
[129] Quotations and citations that are solely under the own and utter discernment and intellectual faculties of the present author. Among many amenities that are described in my biography, I am a perpetual and ruthless researcher.
[130] “...Diccionario de Citas...” (Spanish, “...Dictionary of Quotations...”) by Castañares y Quiroz ─ ISBN 84-87462-03-0
[131] Respondent’s answers are in actuality own quotations of those authors, whose citations are accurate and available at <<www.brainyquote.com>>.
[132] http://bit.ly/mB6Oo
[133] “...Principles of Counseling and Psychotherapy: Learning the Essential Domains and Nonlinear Thinking of Master Practitioner...” (2009) ─ Gerald J. Mozdziers, Paul R. Peluso, Joseph Lisiecki ─ ISBN-10: 0415997518
[134] “...Cracking Creativity...” by Michael Michalko ─ ISBN 1-58008-311-0
[135] “...The Definitive Handbook of Business Continuity Management...” (2007) By Andrew Hiles ─ ISBN 0470516380
[136] Ray Kurzweil’s quotations at ‹brainyquotes.com›
[137] http://bit.ly/9BWSVQ
[138] http://bit.ly/bCOZDF
[139] “...The World is Flat...” By Thomas L. Friedman (2006) ─ ISBN-10: 0-374-29279-5
[140] “...Out of Our Minds: Learning to be Creative...” (2001) By Ken Robinson – ISBN-10: 1841121258
[141] http://bit.ly/NfD8z
[142] The Singularity is Near (2005) by Ray Kurzweil ─ ISBN 0-670-03384-7
[143] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_V._Gerstner,_Jr.
[144] www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html
[145] http://www.saffo.com/
[146] http://www.monitorinstitute.com/
[147] http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Alvin_Toffler
[148] http://www.brainyquotes.com/quotes/authors/a/alvin_toffler.html
[149] http://bit.ly/9gQMiY
[150] http://slidesha.re/9CN0mO
[151] http://bit.ly/10V0Xm
[152] http://bit.ly/dWw04
[153] The 8th Habit (2004) By Dr. Stephen R. Covey ─ ISBN 0-684-84665-9
[154] Blown to Bits: How the New Economics of Information Transforms Strategy (1999) ─ ISBN-10: 087584877X By Thomas S. Wurster
[155] Blown to Bits: Your Life, Liberty, and Happiness (2008) ─ ISBN-10: 0137135599 By Hal Abelson
[156] http://bit.ly/a3oaUk
[157] “...The Failure of Risk Management...” (2009) ─ ISBN-10: 0470387955 By Douglas W. Hubbard
[158] http://www.thefreedictionary.com/futurism
[159] http://www.thefreedictionary.com/futurology
[160] “...Futuristics: Looking Ahead...” ( 2005 ) By Dr. Arthur B. Shostak, Ph.D. ─ ISBN-10: 0791084019
[161] “...Moving Along: Far Ahead...” (2005) By Dr. Arthur B. Shostak ─ ISBN-10: 0791084043
[162] “...Creating Better Futures: Scenario Planning As a Tool for A Better Tomorrow...” (2002 ) By James A. Ogilvy ─ ISBN-10: 0195146115
[163] “...As the Futures Catches You: How Genomics & Other Forces Are Changing Your Life, Work, Health and Wealth...” (2005) By Juan Enriquez ─ ISBN-10: 1400047749
[164] “...Robo sapiens: Evolution of a New Species...” (2001) By Peter Menzel and Faith D’Aluisio ─ ISBN-10: 0262632454
[165]...”...Beyond Humanity: Cyberevolution and Future Minds...” (1996) By Gregory S. Paul and Earl Cox ─ ISBN-10: 1886801215
[166] http://bit.ly/gWka0N
[167] “...Managing Product and Service Development...” (2006) By Stefan Thomke ─ ISBN-10: 0073023019
[168] “...The Art of Asking: Ask Better Questions, Get Better Answers...” (2008) By Terry J. Fadem ─ ISBN-10: 0137144245
[169] “...Beyond Humanity: Cyberevolution and Future Minds...” (1996) By Gregory S. Paul and Earl Cox ─ ISBN-10: 1886801215
[170] “...The Future and Its Enemies: The Growing Conflict Over Creativity, Enterprise, and Progress...” (1999) By Virginia Postrel ─ ISBN-10: 0684862697
[171] “...Visions: How Science Hill Revolutionize the 21st Century...” (1998) By Dr. Michio Kaku, Ph.D. ─ ISBN-10: 0385484992
[172] http://bit.ly/dXWGm2
[173] http://bit.ly/guBaWL
[174] “...Physics of the Impossible: A Scientific Exploration into the World of Phasers, Force Fields, Teleportation, and Time Travel...” (2009) ─ ISBN-10: 0307278824 By Dr. Michio Kaku
[175] “...The Gutenberg Galaxy: The Making of Typographic Man...” (1962) By Dr. Marshall McLuhan, Ph.D. ─ ISBN-10: 0802060412
[176] http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6B16U920101203
[177] http://bit.ly/fnOO6h
[178] Massive Change (2004) ─ ISBN-10: 0714844012 By Bruce Mau
[179] The Artilect War: Cosmists Vs. Terrans: A Bitter Controversy Concerning Whether Humanity Should Build Godlike Massively Intelligent Machines (2005) ─ ISBN-10: 0882801546 by Hugo de Garis
[180] “...Creating Tomorrow’s Schools Today: Education – Our Children – Their Futures...” (2010) ─ ISBN-10: 1855393948 by Richard Gerver
[181] http://tiny.cc/p3piz
[182] “...The Extreme Future: The Top Trends That Will Reshape the World in the Next 20 Years...” (2007) ─ ISBN-10: 0452288665 By James Canton
[183] “...The Predictioneer’s Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future...” (2010) ─ ISBN-10: 081297977X By Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
[184] “...Crucial Questions About the Future...” (2002) ─ ISBN-10: 0819182753 By Allen Tough
[185] http://tiny.cc/j33u9
[186] http://tiny.cc/ocn6a
[187] Synaptic Self: Our Brains Become Who We Are (2002) ─ ISBN 0-670-03028-7
[188] The Political economy of information (1988) By Vincent Mosco and Janet Wasko ─ ISBN 0-299-11570-4
[189] Management Information Systems (2009) ISBN-10: 013607846X By Ken Laudon (Author), Jane Laudon (Author)
[190] http://tiny.cc/xbob0
[191] Wilson's Ghost: Reducing The Risk Of Conflict, Killing, And Catastrophe In The 21st Century by Robert S. McNamara (2003) ─ ISBN-10: 1586481436
[192] Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach (3rd Edition) by Stuart Russell and Peter Norvig (Dec 11, 2009) ─ ISBN-10: 0136042597
[193] http://3.ly/XWtr
[194] “...The Dance of Molecules: How Nanotechnology is Changing Our Lives...” (2006) – ISBN-10: 1-56025-895-0 by Ted Sargent
[195] http://goo.gl/YFQZ6
[196] The Speed of Trust (2006) ─ ISBN-10: 0-7432-9730-X ─ By Stephen M. R. Covey
[197] Managing Innovation: Integrating Technological, Market and Organizational Change (2009) ─ISBN-10: 0470998105 ─By Joe Tidd, John Bessant
[198] http://goo.gl/LuojF
[199] http://bigthink.com/ideas/14657
[200] Source: http://goo.gl/iFpX2
[201] Hyperinnovation: Multidimensional Enterprise in the Connected Economy (2002) ─ ISBN-10: 0333994388 by Chris Harris
[202] “...Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios...” (1997) ─ ISBN-10: 0471303526 By Liam Fahey, Robert M. Randall
[203] “...Rethinking the Future: Rethinking Business, Principles, Competition, Control & Complexity, Leadership, Markets, and the World...” (1998) ─ ISBN-10: 9781857881080 By Rowan Gibson
[204] “...Connect the Dots... To Become An Impact Plyer...” (2003) ─ ISBN-10: 0595294928 By Dick Lynch
[205] Source: http://goo.gl/7KGG4
[206] “...The Leader Manager...” (1986) ─ ISBN-10: 0471836931 by John N. Williansom
[207] ISBN 978-0-309-11660-2
[208] http://goo.gl/dvfoQ
[209] Inscription in Washington National Archives’ building.
[210] Found via search engine query as it was earlier mentioned in REDES, the scientific television program from the Spanish state-owned television network. (As it was seen in August 2011).
[211] http://goo.gl/3GoQe
[212] Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software ─ ISBN-10: 0684868768 by Steven Johnson
[213] www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,2048299,00.html
[214] The (Mis)behavior of Markets (2004) ─ ISBN-13 978-0-465-04355-2 By Benoit Mandelbrot
[215] The Lights in the Tunnel (2009) ─ ISBN-13: 978-1448659814 by Martin Ford
[216] Thinking for a Change: Discovering the Power to Create, Communicate and Lead (1996) by Michael Gelb ─ ISBN-10: 1854104209
[217] No Higher Honor: A Memoir of My Years in Washington ─ (2011) ─ ISBN-13: 978-0307587862 by Condoleezza Rice
[217] https://spanish.lifeboat.com/blog/2014/03/Futureketing
[218] At http://bit.ly/1lcGtsH
[219] At http://bit.ly/1gK1Md3
[220] At http://bit.ly/1rdbP3t
[221] At http://bit.ly/OMVQtT
[222] At http://bit.ly/NDtiBW
[223] Athttp://goo.gl/SzF3U9
[224] At http://bit.ly/1iOhs4h
[225] Resilience: Protecting your Business from Disasters in a Dangerous World by Ph.D. Robert Collins (ISBN-13: 978-0595409242).
[226] All citations and quotations are from the Futuretronium Book ( http://lnkd.in/ZxV3Sz ) and The Future of Scientific Management, Today! ( http://lnkd.in/bYP2nDC ) . A descriptive bibliographical reference has been included.
[227] By Dr. Nassim Nicholas Taleb PhD in his book: The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. (ISBN-13: 978-0812973815).
[228] Mr. David Shaw's profile is at http://lnkd.in/ba6xX-K .
RECOMMENDED READING:
Futureketing: How to Systematically Understand and Succeed in a World of Frantically Accelerating Pace of Change! ─ An Omnimode Exploration. https://spanish.lifeboat.com/blog/2014/03/futureketing
Very revealing analysis .…..however, I feel,managing the unknown will characterize the art of management in future…