El Nino strength is important, but the extraordinary, accelerating, warming of global sea surface temperatures is much more important.
See Super El Nino? – https://mailchi.mp/caa/super-el-nino-super-warming-is-the-main-issue
Also available on Substack: https://jimehansen.substack.com/p/super-el-nino-super-warming-is-the
Abstract. Models are converging on prediction of an El Nino beginning this year, peaking in early 2027. After overlooking the possibility of an El Nino this year, some reporting is jumping on a “Super El Nino” bandwagon. El Nino strength and frequency are important, especially the issue of whether these are modified by global warming. However, the more important knowledge that needs to be extracted from near-term global warming concerns interpretation of ongoing, extraordinary, acceleration of ocean surface warming. Impacts of this ocean warming include a factor of two greater warming over land, increased extreme precipitation, and poleward movement of subtropical conditions.
The fundamental advance in the past five years in understanding of global climate change is realization that equilibrium climate sensitivity is substantially larger than the long-standing best estimate of 3°C for doubled CO2. The underestimate was due to an implicit assumption that aerosol climate forcing changed negligibly during the period of rapid linear warming that began about 1970 and on heavy dependence of climate sensitivity assessments on observed warming of the past century. Multiple data sources now indicate that climate sensitivity is 4–5°C, which is consistent with aerosol-cloud modeling that reveals increasing aerosol cooling during the 1970–2005 period of rapid linear warming because of increased global spread of the aerosol sources. This explains why underlying climate sensitivity must be larger to account for the observed temperature rise.
