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Category: existential risks – Page 123

Lockheed Martin’s SkunkWorks!

I have admired Lockheed Martin’s SkunkWorks for a long, long time.

FORTUNATELY AND TO THIS PURPOSE, A LOCKHEED MARTIN SCIENTIFIC RESEARCHER AND ENGINEER WROTE:

” … Many businesses think today’s world is complicated and with technology rapidly changing, trying to figure out all the correct things to do is impossible, that it is better to just do what can be done, and adjust things when the result happens to be what is not expected. This is simply gambling where the odds for success and the liability of failure are getting worse by the day. The truth is the world is not complicated, just complex, and with complexity increasing at the same time technology is rapidly changing, the combination of the two conditions only seems complicated. The difference between complexity and complication is complexity can be logically addressed and accounted for such that proper risk management can then be applied and when the quality of the technology is assured early in the planning, analysis and design of the technical solution instead of only assuring it late in the development cycle, the integrated combination of these two scientifically validated methodologies can be used to reliably predict the expected outcomes. There is nobody better at applying the integrated combination of risk management and quality assurance than Mr. Andres Agostini or is there anybody that has more real world experience in doing so, and this includes solving some of the most wicked problems of some of the largest businesses throughout the world. If you are just gambling things work out, then I highly recommend you stop doing business dangerously and seek the assistance of Andres, the master of risk management and quality assurance, as well as reliability and continuous process improvement …”

ABSOLUTE END.

Authored By Copyright Mr. Andres Agostini

White Swan Book Author (Source of this Article)

http://www.LINKEDIN.com/in/andresagostini

http://www.AMAZON.com/author/agostini

https://www.FACEBOOK.com/heldenceo (Other Publications)

http://LIFEBOAT.com/ex/bios.andres.agostini

http://ThisSUCCESS.wordpress.com

https://www.FACEBOOK.com/agostiniandres

http://www.appearoo.com/aagostini

http://connect.FORWARDMETRICS.com/profile/1649/Andres-Agostini.html

https://www.FACEBOOK.com/amazonauthor

http://FUTURE-OBSERVATORY.blogspot.com

http://ANDRES-AGOSTINI-on.blogspot.com

http://AGOSTINI-SOLVES.blogspot.com

@AndresAgostini

@ThisSuccess

@SciCzar

MANDATE: Thou Shalt Sin In Favor Of Explosively-Nonlinear Victory For Eternity!, Stupid? By Mr. Andres Agostini — Amazon — LinkedIn — Lifeboat Foundation

MANDATE: Thou Shalt Sin In Favor Of Explosively-Nonlinear Victory For Eternity!

ERGO:

Thou Shalt Sin Against Linear Failure, In Order To Embrace Explosively-Nonlinear Victory For Eternity!

What to do against the item below?

Thou Shalt Sin Against Linear Failure, In Order To Embrace Auspicious Nonlinear Victory!

FIRST, LET US UNDERSTAND WHAT IT IS HAPPENING CONCERNING PERVASIVE CHANGE:

“… BEGINNING WITH THE AMOUNT OF KNOWLEDGE IN THE KNOWN WORLD AT THE TIME OF CHRIST, STUDIES HAVE ESTIMATED THAT THE FIRST DOUBLING OF THAT KNOWLEDGE TOOK PLACE ABOUT 1700 A.D. THE SECOND DOUBLING OCCURRED AROUND THE YEAR 1900. IT IS ESTIMATED TODAY THAT THE WORLD’S KNOWLEDGE BASE WILL DOUBLE AGAIN BY 2010 AND AGAIN AFTER THAT BY 2013 …”

AND TO UNDERPIN THE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH, LET US ALSO CONSIDER THE WORDS OF BILL GATES:

On Mar 24, 1999 Microsoft Chairman, and today’s smartest and wealthiest person, gave, in hard writing (ISBN: 978–0446525688), a pervasive forewarning that 96.357% of the people, with their intrinsically and un-salvageably linear and unprepared minds, utterly ignored.

THIS IS THE VERBATIM FOREWARNING:

“ … We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years [2001] and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten [2011] …” — Bill Gates. Brackets by the Author.

AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, LET US CAREFULLY CONSIDER THIS:

1.-) “…HUMAN KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING EVERY TEN YEARS [AS PER THE 1998 STANDARDS]…” [226]

2.-) “…COMPUTER POWER IS DOUBLING EVERY EIGHTEEN MONTHS. THE INTERNET IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR. THE NUMBER OF DNA SEQUENCES WE CAN ANALYZE IS DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS…” [226]

3.-) “… BEGINNING WITH THE AMOUNT OF KNOWLEDGE IN THE KNOWN WORLD AT THE TIME OF CHRIST, STUDIES HAVE ESTIMATED THAT THE FIRST DOUBLING OF THAT KNOWLEDGE TOOK PLACE ABOUT 1700 A.D. THE SECOND DOUBLING OCCURRED AROUND THE YEAR 1900. IT IS ESTIMATED TODAY THAT THE WORLD’S KNOWLEDGE BASE WILL DOUBLE AGAIN BY 2010 AND AGAIN AFTER THAT BY 2013 …” [226]

4.- ) “…KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING BY EVERY FOURTEEN MONTHS…” [226]

5.-) “…MORE THAN THE DOUBLING OF COMPUTATIONAL POWER [IS TAKING PLACE] EVERY YEAR…” [226]

6.-) “…The flattening of the world is going to be hugely disruptive to both traditional and developed societies. The weak will fall further behind faster. The traditional will feel the force of modernization much more profoundly. The new will get turned into old quicker. The developed will be challenged by the underdeveloped much more profoundly. I worry, because so much political stability is built on economic stability, and economic stability is not going to be a feature of the flat world. Add it all up and you can see that the disruptions and going to come faster and harder. No one is immune — not me, not you, not Microsoft. WE ARE ENTERING AN ERA OF CREATIVE DESTRUCTION ON STEROIDS. Dealing with flatism is going to be a challenge of a whole new dimension even if your country has a strategy. But if you don’t have a strategy at all, well, again, you’ve warned…” [226]

WHAT TO DO ABOUT? EXACTLY THIS:

(1.-) Picture mentally, radiantly.

(2.-) Draw outside the canvas.

(3.-) Color outside the vectors.

(4.-) Sketch sinuously.

(5.-) Far-sight beyond the mind’s intangible exoskeleton.

(6.-) Abduct indiscernible falsifiable convictions.

(7.-) Reverse-engineering a gene and a bacterium or, better yet, the lucrative genome.

(8.-) Guillotine the over-weighted status quo.

(9.-) Learn how to add up — in your own brainy mind — colors, dimensions, aromas, encryptions, enigmas, phenomena, geometrical and amorphous in-motion shapes, methods, techniques, codes, written lines, symbols, contexts, locus, venues, semantic terms, magnitudes, longitudes, processes, tweets, “…knowledge-laden…” hunches and omniscient bliss, so forth.

(10.-) Project your wisdom’s wealth onto communities of timeless-connected wikis.

WHAT ELSE?

(11.-) Cryogenize the infamous illiterate by own choice and reincarnate ASAP (multiverse teleporting out of a warped / wormed passage) Da Vinci, Bacon, Newton, Goethe, Bonaparte, Edison, Franklyn, Churchill, Einstein, and Feynman.

(12.-) Organize relationships into voluntary associations that are mutually beneficial and accountable for contributing productively to the surrounding community.

(13.-) Practice the central rule of good strategy, which is to know and remain true to your core business and invest for leadership and R&D+Innovation.

(14.-) Kaizen, SixSigma, Lean, LeanSigma, “…Reliability Engineer…” (the latter as solely conceived and developed by Procter & Gamble and Los Alamos National Laboratories) it all unthinkably and thoroughly by recombinant, a là Einstein Gedanke-motorized judgment (that is to say: Einsteinian Gedanke [“…thought experiments…”].

(15.-) Provide a road-map and blueprint for drastically compressing (‘crashing’) the time’s ‘reticules’ it will take you to get on the top of your tenure, nonetheless of your organizational level.

(16.-) With the required knowledge and relationships embedded in organizations, create support for, and carry out transformational initiatives.

(17.-) Offer a tested pathway for addressing the linked challenges of personal transition and organizational transformation that confront leaders in the first few months in a new tenure.

(18.-) Foster momentum by creating virtuous cycles that build credibility and by avoiding getting caught in vicious cycles that harm credibility.

(19.-) Institute coalitions that translate into swifter organizational adjustments to the inevitable streams of change in personnel and environment.

(20.-) Mobilize and align the overriding energy of many others in your organization, knowing that the “…wisdom of crowds…” is upfront and outright rubbish.

IS THAT YOUR BEST?

(21.-) Step outside the boundaries of the framework’s system when seeking a problem’s solution.

(22.-) Within zillion tiny bets, raise the ante and capture the documented learning through frenzy execution. (23) “…Moonshine…” and “… Skunkworks …” and “…Re-Imagineer…” it all, holding in your mind the motion-pictured image that, regardless of the relevance of “…inputs…” and “…outputs,…”, entails that the highest relevance is within the sophistication within the THROUGHPUT.

(24.-) Don’t copy Nature and Biology, don’t even copy Universe. Just copy the Omniverse.

(25.-) Correlate everything else with the ignored and unthinkable ‘else’ of everything else, forever.

(26.-) Combine the practical and technological with the mysterious and meaningful.

(27.-) Pencil your map.

(28.-) Brush your road-map.

(29.-) Scratch your blueprint.

(30.-) Conceive of, develop and share unthinkable lessons learned.

(31.-) Facilitate a heterogeneous group — in the midst of appalling interpersonal chemistry — towards the accomplishment of a common goal.

(32.-) Learn complex new skills and new ways to make corporate miracles crystallize.

(33.-) Typo the cartoon.

(34.-) Keystroke the drawing.

(35.-) Acculturate your brain to operate executions from the applied omniscience via the lenses and springs of systems methodology.

(36.-) Manage RISKS and BENEFITS and CHANCES and OPPORTUNITIES in series and never in parallel.

(37.-) Remove accident causes prior to a loss, knowing that an accident is never a random stroke of fate, but an utter and thus purported instrument of ignorance of supine ignorance.

(38.-) Convert your viewpoint to a systems approach.

(39.-) Enable full-orbed and balanced stability of your thinkables and unthinkables.

(40.-) Attempt to know, early on, the end from the beginning.

(41.-) Identify driving forces to make better decisions, manage uncertainty, and profit from change.

(42.-) Declare the past, recover yesterday, analyze the present, enjoy today, and reinvent tomorrow (today’s ensuing 24 hours).

(43.-) Build your own FUTURE transcending your past.

(44.-) Contort your mindful, mindless executions — and those in the midst of ‘mindful’ and ‘mindless’ executions —, solely out of this world, and solely out of this universe, and solely out of this reality, but not just for the inexpensive, tangential, impious sake of intellectual stunts, but only so that the ‘life’ has not unfruitful ‘afterlife’ — so-called —, and also so that the ‘world’ has no ‘afterworld’ (as well as, in congruence with the present work, ‘after-universe’ and even ‘after-verse.’) — so-called —. Aren’t afterlife and afterworld dis-intermediated anyway? Now, you, and merely you, proceed and transcend yourself, by yourself and for yourself.

(45.-) If you really want to make an operational difference in your professional theater of operations, go and get a full immersion in the fringe. Right in there, under that tense and pressing dynamics, you’ll have the vantage flux of the mirage.

AND, WHAT ELSE?

(46.-) Tantalize your tangential pre-cognition and cognition into ever-‬metamorphosing ‭your attentive and contemplative trans-meditation Zen.

(47.-) ‭De-realize, thus, de-focus from that taken-for-granted realities of the folly and the faulty, literally!

(48.-) ‬Mostly in-source your mind with long-unknown virtualities.

(49.-) Assure that there are not un-searched areas of risk, benefit and sustainable opportunity.

(59.-) Acculturate yourself and those in your crew and in the orbit of incumbent stakeholders with most actionable, applied omniscience. Remember culture without science and technology is beyond blind.

(60.-) Cultivate the highest manifestations of human intelligence: vision, discipline, passion and conscience.

(61.-) Achieve next-level breakthrough in productivity, innovation and leadership in the marketplace and society.

(62.-) Develop the internal power and moral authority to break out of those problems to become a significant force in solving them.

(63.-) Use your voice and deeds to superbly serve your organization’s purposes, functions and stakeholders.

(64.-) Magnify your current gifts, talents, skills and dexterities.

(65.-) Take a prior learning for Life, apply it to a new situation, learn from practical experience, and apply the new learning.

(66.-) Pervasively reason from effect to cause and from cause to effect.

(67.-) Envision shrewd yet calculated risks, from start to end, to turn downsides into upsides.

(68.-) “…Exponentialize the rushed and marshaled progression of your own all-rounded, perennial learning curves on the doubles, chiefly those directly concerned with engaging your diverse skills, dexterities, and talents to overcome — through fluid execution by mind preparedness — your theater of operations because of and by the increasingly threatening surroundings. Otherwise, the onset Technological Revolutions (compounded in a pervasive composite), as explained in «Futuretonium and Futureketing», will give you the hardest time to you and yours. There is realistic and austere hope if we work the hardest and in the most scientific mode.

(69.-) Figure out exactly which genes and neurons coalesce to make synapses with.

(70.-) Wire up synapses and genes the soonest.

(71.-) Ask now more sophisticated questions to marshal upon.

(72.-) Don’t juts copy Nature but focus on copying Biology, Nature and the Omniverse.

(73.-) Transfer the Heritage Business or the Legacy Business into the Third Millennium.

(74.-) Transform Completely.

(75.-) Expand Globally.

(76.-) Extend Digitally.

(77.-) Build an Intelligent-Innovation Strategy.

(78.-) Combine the best features of the three breathtaking strategies into one.

(79.-) When in doubt, Be Bold!

(80.-) Learn to recognize situations in which mistakes are likely and try harder to avoid significant mistakes when the stakes are high.

(81.-) Experiment at the edges of business.

(82.-) Challenge yourself to question every assumption.

(83.-) Keep the acceleration going, keep your world changing and off balance.

(84.-) Remember, the frozen image is false. The reality is continual motion.

(85.-) Trigger domino effects and change the way the economy behaves.

(86.-) Foreshorten product life cycles from years to months or even weeks or hours.

(87.-) Put customer experience at the heart of digital transformation. This includes blurring the line between digital and physical customer experiences, the authors advise. “A Digital Master figures what customers do and why, where and how they do it. The company then works out where and how the experience can be digitally enhanced across channels.”

(88.-) Constantly challenge your business model; consider how you might transform your industry before others do it. “Not paying attention is even a bigger risk. Executives in music, newspapers, and equity trading have already seen the radical upheavals that digital business model reinvention can bring to their industries.”

(89.-) Get familiar with new digital practices that can be an opportunity or a threat to your industry and company.

(90.-) Identify bottlenecks or headaches — in your company and in your customers — that resulted from the limits of old technologies, and consider how you might resolve these problems digitally.

(91.-) Craft a compelling digital vision, one that specifies both intent and outcome. “There is no single best way to express a vision for digital transformation. It’s not a formulaic process,” the authors state. “You need to craft a vision that builds on your strengths, engages employees, and evolves over time.”

(92.-) Make your digital vision specific enough to give employees a clear direction, while giving them the flexibility to build on it.

(93.-) Open up the conversations to give everyone a role in digital transformation, and deal with resistance by being open and transparent about the goals.

(94.-) Consider which digital decisions must be governed at the highest levels of the company, and which will be delegated to lower levels.

(95.-) Focus your initial investments on getting a clean, well-structured digital platform; it’s the foundation for everything else.

(96.-) Challenge yourself continually to find new things you can do with your IT-business relationships, digital skills, and digital platform.

AND, SUBSEQUENTLY WHAT?

(3,102.-) “ … Never give in, never give in, never; never; never; never — in nothing, great or small, large or petty — never give in except to convictions of honor and good sense …” (On October 29, 1941, U.K. Prime Minister Winston Churchill)

TO THE EXPRESS PURPOSE, IT MUST BE INCESSANTLY ACKNOWLEDGED FOR LIFE:

As well as Andres, Egotistical Prima Donna (SkunkWorks practitioner) is no longer a captive to history.

Whatever he, she can imagine, he, she can accomplish.

As well as Andres, Egotistical Prima Donna (SkunkWorks practitioner) is no longer a vassal in a faceless bureaucracy, he, she is an activist, not a drone.

As well as Andres, Egotistical Prima Donna (SkunkWorks practitioner) is no longer a foot soldier in the march of progress.

As well as Andres, Egotistical Prima Donna (SkunkWorks practitioner) is a Revolutionary! … ”

TODAY, I GOT THIS FROM LOCKHEED MARTIN RESEARCH SCIENTIST:

“ … Many businesses think today’s world is complicated and with technology rapidly changing, trying to figure out all the correct things to do is impossible, that it is better to just do what can be done, and adjust things when the result happens to be what is not expected. This is simply gambling where the odds for success and the liability of failure are getting worse by the day. The truth is the world is not complicated, just complex, and with complexity increasing at the same time technology is rapidly changing, the combination of the two conditions only seems complicated. The difference between complexity and complication is complexity can be logically addressed and accounted for such that proper risk management can then be applied and when the quality of the technology is assured early in the planning, analysis and design of the technical solution instead of only assuring it late in the development cycle, the integrated combination of these two scientifically validated methodologies can be used to reliably predict the expected outcomes. There is nobody better at applying the integrated combination of risk management and quality assurance than Mr. Andres Agostini or is there anybody that has more real world experience in doing so, and this includes solving some of the most wicked problems of some of the largest businesses throughout the world. If you are just gambling things work out, then I highly recommend you stop doing business dangerously and seek the assistance of Andres, the master of risk management and quality assurance, as well as reliability and contiguous process improvement…”

000 a 24 hours

ABSOLUTE END.

Authored By Copyright Mr. Andres Agostini

White Swan Book Author (Source of this Article)

http://www.LINKEDIN.com/in/andresagostini

http://www.AMAZON.com/author/agostini

https://www.FACEBOOK.com/heldenceo (Other Publications)

http://LIFEBOAT.com/ex/bios.andres.agostini

http://ThisSUCCESS.wordpress.com

https://www.FACEBOOK.com/agostiniandres

http://www.appearoo.com/aagostini

http://connect.FORWARDMETRICS.com/profile/1649/Andres-Agostini.html

https://www.FACEBOOK.com/amazonauthor

http://FUTURE-OBSERVATORY.blogspot.com

http://ANDRES-AGOSTINI-on.blogspot.com

http://AGOSTINI-SOLVES.blogspot.com

@AndresAgostini

@ThisSuccess

@SciCzar

New Book: An Irreverent Singularity Funcyclopedia, by Mondo 2000’s R.U. Sirius.

Quoted: “Legendary cyberculture icon (and iconoclast) R.U. Sirius and Jay Cornell have written a delicious funcyclopedia of the Singularity, transhumanism, and radical futurism, just published on January 1.” And: “The book, “Transcendence – The Disinformation Encyclopedia of Transhumanism and the Singularity,” is a collection of alphabetically-ordered short chapters about artificial intelligence, cognitive science, genomics, information technology, nanotechnology, neuroscience, space exploration, synthetic biology, robotics, and virtual worlds. Entries range from Cloning and Cyborg Feminism to Designer Babies and Memory-Editing Drugs.” And: “If you are young and don’t remember the 1980s you should know that, before Wired magazine, the cyberculture magazine Mondo 2000 edited by R.U. Sirius covered dangerous hacking, new media and cyberpunk topics such as virtual reality and smart drugs, with an anarchic and subversive slant. As it often happens the more sedate Wired, a watered-down later version of Mondo 2000, was much more successful and went mainstream.”

Read the article here >https://hacked.com/irreverent-singularity-funcyclopedia-mondo-2000s-r-u-sirius/

Kaalagyan: Farsighted-Future Investigation And Reoriented Research By Drashtara, Andres Agostini!

Kaalagyan: Farsighted-Future Investigation And Reoriented Research By Drashtara, Andres Agostini!

AN INDIAN CIVIL ENGINEER, VEDIC SAGE AND SANSKRIT SCHOLAR WROTE,

“…White Swan [ http://amzn.to/1tH7Fpl ]; yes White Swan! In Sanskrit‚ we have an adage-HAMSA KSHEERA NYAYAM — meaning Swan and the Milk Example! What does this mean? It is believed that Swan accepts milk portion only from out of the mixture of Milk and Water! [….] I am honored to compare this Vedic Analogy with Mr. Andres Agostini’s WHITE SWAN — I do know whether Andres kept this Vedic term. While titling his Great foreseeing of the Future! [….] Needless to say that Andres is a foreseer; DRASHTARA! He illumines the present science and technology and heightens the future Metascale heights, yet he says that he does know what could be in 2045! [….] In Sanskrit the Vedantic Sages call Andres «… a DRASHTARA …» and as such he is set out to re-channelize the R&D&I effort’s direction and pathway by applied scientists in dire straits, thus re-illuminating them in the unaccounted-for dynamic driving forces in order for scientists to return to the right path [….] THE UNIVERSE IS A LEGENDARY VERSE AND I MUST ADMIT WITH MY LIMITED KNOWLEDGE OF THE PAST TO FUTURE, THE EVOLUTION IS THE GREATEST REVOLUTION IN ALL ASPECTS; KNOWN BECOMES NON EXISTENT AND UNKNOWN BECOMES THE MOST ADORED AND PREFERRED TOOL OF THE PRESENT TOOL FOR AFFLUENCE IN SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL FAST TRACKS! I admire Andres at every meticulous step in his narration citing and acknowledging his indebtedness to his peers! My knowledge of Science and Technology is limited to appreciation of the facts of the future! I am no match to Andres Agostini’s knowledge, but have the firm belief that Andres Agostini’s forethoughts of the future are the as true as Sun and Moon! [….] It is a prevailed I casually came across this page and must say I am a gainer in knowledge! [.…] THERE IS IGNORANCE IN KNOWLEDGE AND SO TOO KNOWLEDGE IN IGNORANCE BECAUSE THE MORE ONE LEARNS; MUCH MORE HE/SHE FEELS MORE HE/SHE MUST LEARN! [….] PEOPLE LIKE MR. ANDRES AGOSTINI ARE ALWAYS SOUGHT AFTER TO EDUCATE THE THIRSTY FOR KNOWLEDGE OF THE FUTURISTIC DEVELOPMENTS! [….] WISDOM AND KNOWLEDGE ARE DUAL ENTITIES OF THE MIND! Needless to say drawing from the expressive impressions of previous births to forecast the futuristics of the incoming generations called in Sanskrit as KAALAGYAN! (in Sanskrit, ‘… knowledge and awareness with farsightedness of eternal future times…’) [….] Whatever we call genes/genetic in modern scientific terminology! As usual Mr. Andres Agostini, with his habitual farsightedness has inherent KAALAGYAN to disclose whatever the future holds for the future! I wish Mr Andres Agostini all the great results for the future he is investigating! [….] SOMETIMES I HAVE THE PREMONITION, HAVING READ SEVERAL OF MR ANDRES AGOSTINI’S PUBLICATIONS, THAT HE BELONGS TO PRE-VEDIC PERIOD IN FORESEEING THE FUTURISTIC HAPPENINGS! HE IS TOTALLY DEDICATED IN HIS STUDIES: WIDTH AND DEPTH! HIS ZEAL SURMOUNTS MOUNT EVEREST! …”

— Mr. Grama Keshava Ananthram

TO THIS END AND AS A CONSEQUENCE, A NOTED JOURNALIST FROM INDIA COMMENTED,

“ … I absolutely agree with your opinion that MR ANDRES AGOSTINI is a great visionary of our time. His findings forewarns us about the future. IGNORING THEM IN FORMULATING POLICIES FOR THE FUTURE OF OUR PLANET IS LIKE WALKING THE CLIFF EDGE BLINDFOLD. Yes, the unique intuitive power that MR AGOSTINI is endowed with, must have been the result of good Karma of past several births …”

— Sukanta Rout

ANDRES AGOSTINI’S CLOSING REMARKS ON HIS INTELLECTUAL MANIFESTO:

“ … Andres is no longer a captive to history.
Whatever he can imagine, he can accomplish.

He is no longer a vassal in a faceless
bureaucracy, He is an activist, not a drone.

He is no longer a foot soldier
in the march of progress.

He is a Technological Revolutionary! … ”

ABSOLUTE END.

Authored By Copyright Mr. Andres Agostini

White Swan Book Author (Source of this Article)

http://www.LINKEDIN.com/in/andresagostini

http://www.AMAZON.com/author/agostini

https://www.FACEBOOK.com/heldenceo (Other Publications)

http://LIFEBOAT.com/ex/bios.andres.agostini

http://ThisSUCCESS.wordpress.com

https://www.FACEBOOK.com/agostiniandres

http://www.appearoo.com/aagostini

http://connect.FORWARDMETRICS.com/profile/1649/Andres-Agostini.html

https://www.FACEBOOK.com/amazonauthor

http://FUTURE-OBSERVATORY.blogspot.com

http://ANDRES-AGOSTINI-on.blogspot.com

http://AGOSTINI-SOLVES.blogspot.com

@AndresAgostini

@ThisSuccess

@SciCzar

“Infinity plus Infinity equals zero”: A logical Error made by the Physics Profession

Everyone can witness it in the scientifically well-researched blockbuster movie “Interstellar”: The protagonist had to travel fairly deep down to the vicinity of the surface of a giant black hole while feeling absolutely normal there. But there he realizes that when he is to come back home soon, decades will have passed by out there owing to his momentarily heavily slowed clocks and aging. Hence he is younger now than his own daughter whom he had so reluctantly left behind. This is the ingenious part of the script. The rest of the movie becomes inconsistent, the viewer realizes: The crew next goes down much deeper to reach the horizon and travel through the wormhole (and so a second time on the way back), but this time around the matching infinitely fast aging rate in the outside world is swept under the rug for the sake of the narrative having a happy end.

My point is that near the horizon itself, the slowdown becomes infinite. Hence “infinity plus infinity equals zero” is the axiom presupposed in the movie’s second part. Therefore we can dismiss that part as crab? Please, do not do so: this part describes exactly what modern physics is teaching. That is, the movie’s inconsistent second part is the current textbook knowledge: a belief in the presence of “equal rights” between the two time scales, the one outside and the one downstairs in gravity. This is the canonical teaching in physics for 75 years – ever since 1939 when J. Robert Oppenheimer unwittingly laid the ground to this logical error in his ingenious paper, written jointly with Hartland Snyder, in which the physical existence of stellar black holes was first predicted. It is highly technical (http://journals.aps.org/pr/pdf/10.1103/PhysRev.56.455 ).

Following 1939, only the “Russian school” avoided the mentioned error by speaking of “frozen stars” rather than of “stellar black holes.” Eventually, however, peer pressure from the West caused this view to fall into oblivion following the end of the cold war. The once correctly recognized “freezing of time near a black hole” was forgotten by the profession. Interstellar now brought it to the whole world.

The mentioned emotional scene (a father suffering in his heart because the imperceptible slowing-down of time that holds true for him near a mega black hole implies that his beloved young daughter will no longer be a child on his impending return) is now an eye-opener for the whole planet.

But does physics – the most difficult and most highly esteemed science on earth – really teach that the freezing of time is a mere observational effect without real-life consequences? This, Sir, is the modern gospel. The fact that, in reality, nothing ever reaches the horizon in finite outer time or else comes up from it is denied by the physics community. Now, however, the mentioned scene in the movie makes it clear to everyone endowed with a heart that the two time scales are indeed interlocked.

Does this mean that the perhaps most highly regarded profession on earth cannot think? The answer is: yes, but so only for a particular kind of reasoning. Direct – non-algorithmic – thinking has no niche left to it. Oppenheimer got blessed with the wisdom of hindsight when he said “physics has met sin” but here he hit on a perhaps even more fateful case.

Shall the scientific community go on trying to produce black holes down on earth – now that the profession has learnt from a blockbuster movie that it had believed in falsity regarding black holes for 75 years?

I plead that an almost 7 years old proposal for a “safety conference” ( http://www.wissensnavigator.com/documents/petitiontocern.pdf ) be heeded at long last – before the LHC experiment, designed to build black holes down on earth, gets re-started at twice world record energies with a multiplied chance at producing black holes in a few weeks’ time from today.

There is a good chance for a renewal of the more than six years old safety report at last after Interstellar has translated Oppenheimer’s ingenious insights into a theatrical scene that is intuitive to the eye and the heart of every viewer. After this superhuman feat accomplished by the movie-makers, every person on earth is obliged to them. I reckon it was Kip Thorne who is responsible for the miracle of a clear-sighted grief that revealed the existential dimension of gravity’s temporal effects. How does it feel, dear reader, to jointly with Kip be more intelligent than a whole profession and become a benefactor of humankind if you continue to believe in yourself? I can tell you: it feels awful since most everybody hates you – so as if belief in authority was worth dying-for even if it costs the planet. But then just look in the eyes of the young girl in the movie and you know better. This is the miracle worked by Interstellar: your own honesty towards yourself makes all the difference of the world. Even the best-educated group of people on earth is bound to concede your point if you stick to it: “Infinity plus infinity is infinity, not zero.” The correction changes the face of terrestrial black holes as well.

Corporate Reconnoitering?

Corporate Reconnoitering?


ABSOLUTE END.

Authored By Copyright Mr. Andres Agostini

White Swan Book Author (Source of this Article)

http://www.LINKEDIN.com/in/andresagostini

http://www.AMAZON.com/author/agostini

https://www.FACEBOOK.com/heldenceo (Other Publications)

http://LIFEBOAT.com/ex/bios.andres.agostini

http://ThisSUCCESS.wordpress.com

https://www.FACEBOOK.com/agostiniandres

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Actuarial Science Suffice? By Mr. Andres Agostini — Amazon, Linkedin

Actuarial Sciences Suffice?

QUESTION: Actuarial Sciences Suffice?

ANSWER: Absolutely used by actuaries and some futurists, actuarial sciences are structurally linear and incomplete in a world mired by explosive nonlinearity, fluidly and incessantly.

EXCERPTED FROM THE WHITE SWAN BOOK:

WARNING: Dots are connected.

“…You can never plan [retrospectively, that is a posteriori or ex post facto] the future by the past…” Brackets are of the author.

To set the stage properly, I will start with an enlightening quote by Albert Einstein.

“…The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created then…”

Or, it could be better noted:

“…The significant problems we face [today] cannot be solved [in the future] at the same level of [démodé] thinking we were at when we created then [in the fossilized past]…” Brackets are of the author.

Besides:

As the past and the present are NEVER a script for the future, retrospective analyzes and historic data (a posteriori data provided by actuaries and statisticians) are always being disrupted by the final trends and outcomes.

WHY RETROSPECTIVE [A POSTERIORI] ANALYZES DON’T WORK:

“…After-the-fact [retrospective and hence a posteriori] no longer works [….] Bring it back if you have any trouble with it, and I’ll fix it somehow,’ was the standard comment when you used to pick up a bicycle, automobile, food mixer, or lawn mower from the repair shop. And the repairman meant what he said. He was confident that if he had overlooked anything or made a mistake of any kind, he would get a second shot at fixing [….] The ‘second shot’ is a luxury that no longer exists in many businesses. You get only one chance — after that, you’ll be talking only with attorneys, insurance agents, or bankers …”

And:

“ … Life used to be simple. You knew your customers on a first-name basis. Your product or service was a relatively simple one — understood by both you and your customer. Your name and reputation were sufficient to cover any error or oversight [….] But the world has become complex, too complex to allow such comfortable relationships. Consumer expectations are matching the complexities. Instantaneous news coverage of accidents and losses virtually precludes the private, out-of-sight settlement of risk effects that had previously allowed the after-the-fact resolution of risk to succeed …”

And:

“ … The breadth in that old idea is rapidly being squeezed out — like the inevitable tightening of a boa constrictor around its victim [….] The price for public exposure of loss is high. Managers have begun to realize that risk must be examined formally and resolved beforehand rather than being settled after-the-fact. And they learn from others. It was the 1982 sinking of the offshore drilling rig Ocean Ranger that spurred EXXON top management to order a systematic evaluation of their offshore drilling risks … Even though EXXON does not own such rigs, it recognized that even conducting operations aboard them created risks that demanded before-the-fact identification, evaluation, and control … ” [226] Brackets are of the author.

Hence:

Please remember: “… THE FUTURE IS NOT AN ECHO OF THE PAST…”

So, instead of retrospective data [a posteriori], it is much more important prospective data [a priori, ex ante].

BESIDES:

DEFINING THE TERM “…RETROSPECTIVE…”

“ … Retrospective comprises something that is looking back on, contemplating, or directed to the past [….] looking or directed backward [….] Applying to or influencing the past; retroactive [….] looking or directed backwards, esp in time; characterized by retrospection …. applying to the past; retroactive [….] directed to the past; contemplative of past situations, events, etc. [….] looking or directed backward [….] review, revision, another look, reassessment, fresh look, second look, reconsideration, re-evaluation, re-examination [….] Considering a past event or development [….] Something that is chronologically presented pertaining to business tasks, with the utter object to show the trajectory of those business tasks …”

AND ALSO:

DEFINING THE TERM “…PROSPECTIVE…”

“ … Prospective comprises something that is likely or expected to happen [….] that looks forward to the future [….] that it is anticipated or likely to happen [….] of or in the future [….] potential, likely, or expected [….] yet to be or coming [….] of or concerned with or related to the future Set of analyzes and studies developed, with the utter end of exploring or foretelling the future, regarding a determined subject matter …”.

AS WELL:

DEFINING THE TERM “… A PRIORI …”

“ … A Priori comprises that proceeds from a known or assumed cause to a necessarily related effect; deductive [….] Derived by or designating the process of reasoning without reference to particular facts or experience [….] Knowable without appeal to particular experience [….] Made before or without examination; not supported by factual study [….] relating to or involving deductive reasoning from a general principle to the expected facts or effects [….] to be true independently of or in advance of experience of the subject matter; requiring no evidence for its validation or support [….] existing in the mind independent of experience [….] conceived beforehand …”

A SYNONYM OF A PRIORI IS GIVEN BY THE TERM EX ANTE.

ALSO:

DEFINING THE TERM “… A POSTERIORI …”

“ … A Posteriori indicates the demonstration that entails the ascendance of the effect to the cause, or the properties of the essence of something [….] After examining the matter that is dealt with [….] Derived by or designating the process of reasoning from facts or particulars to general principles or from effects to causes; inductive; empirical [….] Knowable from experience [….] relating to or involving inductive reasoning from particular facts or effects to a general principle [….] derived from or requiring evidence for its validation or support; empirical; open to revision [….] from particular instances to a general principle or law; based on observation or experiment [….] not existing in the mind prior to or apart from experience [….] the process of reasoning from effect to cause, based upon observation …”

A SYNONYM TO A POSTERIORI IS ENTAILED IN THE TERM EX POST FACTO.

ABSOLUTE END.

Authored By Copyright Mr. Andres Agostini

White Swan Book Author (Source of this Article)

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Kaizen and Six Sigma Vs. White Swan “…Transformative and Integrative Risk Management …” [Pictorial] — Andres Agostini

Kaizen and Six Sigma Vs. White Swan “…Transformative and Integrative Risk Management …”

ABSOLUTE END.

Authored By Copyright Mr. Andres Agostini

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If c-global can save the World: Why is it being shunned? An Xmas Carol

Imagine there existed a proof that the most reluctantly accepted feature of Einstein’s gravitation theory – that c is no longer a global but only a local constant – was unnecessary: Would that not be wonderful?

The proof was greeted with planet-wide neglect: c-global exists in the Schwarzschild metric of general relativity since 2008 and so in the more fundamental equivalence principle since 2012. It hence also holds true for the full Einstein equation – only the pertinent transform has yet be written down to enable direct unification with quantum mechanics: a holy grail.

Hence most everyone is bound to be working on this in physics? The answer is no given the embarrassment of riches that is implicit. This professional modesty is a sympathetic human trait when you look at it in a detached mood. However, the result in question has also an applied side to it. In light of the latter, a prestigious collective activity has ceased to be safe.

Such collisions of interest do usually sort themselves out spontaneously with time. Here, bad luck for once wills that the unsafe collective activity – the re-ignition of a Nobel-decorated experiment at twice its former world-record energy – has been scheduled to start in only ten weeks’ time.

Since many thousand scientists are involved, it is difficult to launch the requisite public debate within the few weeks that are left: This is an ocean-liner, not a boat. And: should the public be involved in the learned discussion about the difference between a globally constant speed of light c and a merely everywhere locally constant speed c ? I must be kidding!

But there is one point every child can ask and understand: “Does there exist a public Safety Report for the experiment in question (the “LHC” experiment at CERN)?” The answer is: “yes but”: Such an official report exists (LSAG) but it stems from early 2008 – before the safety-relevant new result was published.

This fact is known to the scientific community and to the media, but is being treated as a taboo topic. Europe – with Germany in the leading role payment-wise – thrives on the world-wide public credit granted: “They would not go ahead if they were not convinced it is safe.”

In the case of the Eniwetak catastrophe, a timely Safety Report would have been the rescue. This time around, the risk is infinitely higher due to the black-hole danger implicit in c-global.

We obviously need a public arbitration process in order to save time. There is one world-renowned public hero who has a vested interest in the LHC experiment getting started at twice world-record energy on schedule: Stephen Hawking.

I offer the world a public debate with my famous younger colleague as a substitute for the lacking safety report – to enable the experiment to proceed on time if he wins the debate.

I predict that Stephen Hawking will accept the offer as a bet because he is a sportsman. And because his courage spares CERN the trouble of having to renew its safety report in the short time span left before the scheduled start. A positive response will be a Christmas present to all.

Lifeboat Foundation’s Own Andres Agostini’s Articles Published on LinkedIn! — http://LIFEBOAT.com/ex/bios.andres.agostini

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