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Rogue Putin is the biggest risk of 2023. Here are the other 9, explained by global political expert Ian Bremmer.

Read more of Eurasia Group’s top risks for 2023 ► https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/top-risks-2023

Today’s world is facing large-scale problems, from wars to water shortages to a looming global recession. It’s not easy to accurately conceptualize the risks posed by these issues. This is especially true when people on social media or in the news inaccurately overblow certain problems and discount others, or when problems become so emotionally or politically charged that it seems impossible to work toward a solution.

That’s one reason why the Eurasia Group publishes a detailed analysis of the top risks facing our world each year. As political scientist Ian Bremmer explains, the top risks for 2023 include water stress, inflation shockwaves, and the uncertain future of a “rogue Russia.”

Bremmer is the founder of Eurasia Group, an organization that for 25 years has been using political science to help investors and corporate decision-makers better understand how politics impact risks and opportunities in foreign markets.

0:00 What is the global risk report?

Seqenenre Tao was the pharaoh who ruled southern Egypt in the late 17th dynasty, roughly between 1,558 and 1,553 BC.

That was a troubled time. The Hyksos (whose name in ancient Egyptian was Heqau-khasut, “the rulers of foreign lands”) occupied the northern part of Egypt and took Avaris (present-day Tell el Dabaa) as their capital during a time called the “second intermediate period” (1650−1550 BC).

Although the pharaohs maintained power over the south (with capital in Thebes), the entire territory was forced to pay tribute to the invaders.

Nanoscale defects and mechanical stress cause the failure of solid electrolytes.

A group of researchers has claimed to have found the cause of the recurring short-circuiting issues of lithium metal batteries with solid electrolytes. The team, which consists of members from Stanford University and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, aims to further the battery technology, which is lightweight, inflammable, energy-dense, and offers quick-charge capabilities. Such a long-lasting solution can help to overcome the barriers when it comes to the adoption of electric vehicles around the world.


Fahroni/iStock.

According to the team, the issue was down to mechanical stress, which was induced while recharging the batteries. “Just modest indentation, bending or twisting of the batteries can cause nanoscopic issues in the materials to open and lithium to intrude into the solid electrolyte causing it to short circuit,” explained William Chueh, senior study author and an associate professor at Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability.

Year 2022, this basically could shield the earth or Mars from solar radiation if we needed it. 😗


First experimental measurement of pure electron outflows associated with magnetic reconnection driven by electron dynamics in laser-produced plasmas.

Magnetic reconnections in laser-produced plasmas have been investigated in order to better understand the microscopic electron dynamics, which are relevant to space and astrophysical phenomena. Osaka University scientists, in collaboration with researchers at the National Institute for Fusion Science and other universities, have reported the direct measurements of pure electron outflows relevant to magnetic reconnection using a high-power laser, Gekko XII, at the Institute of Laser Engineering, Osaka University in Japan. Their findings will be published today (June 30, 2022) in Springer Nature, Scientific Reports.

Established in 2011, <em>Scientific Report</em>s is a peer-reviewed open-access scientific mega journal published by Nature Portfolio, covering all areas of the natural sciences. In September 2016, it became the largest journal in the world by number of articles, overtaking <em>PLOS ON</em>E.

A waveguide sculpted in air with lasers transmits light over a distance of nearly 50 meters, which is 60 times farther than previous air-waveguide schemes.

Conventional optical waveguides such as optical fibers and planar waveguides consist of a core surrounded by a cladding with a lower index of refraction. Light is efficiently confined in the core by total internal reflection at the core-cladding boundary. Optical fibers can transport light over 100s of kilometers, but there are applications—such as high-power transmission and atmospheric monitoring—where the use of fibers becomes impractical. Sending light directly through air is not an option, as diffraction effects cause the beam to spread out. A potential solution is to “sculpt” waveguides in the air with laser pulses that produce a low-density cladding around a central core of unperturbed air. Using a new method with donut-shaped beams, Andrew Goffin from the University of Maryland, College Park, and colleagues have created a 45-m-long waveguide in air [1], reaching 60 times farther than the record they previously established for an air waveguide.

The second law of thermodynamics is often considered to be one of only a few physical laws that is absolutely and unquestionably true. The law states that the amount of ‘entropy’—a physical property—of any closed system can never decrease. It adds an ‘arrow of time’ to everyday occurrences, determining which processes are reversible and which are not. It explains why an ice cube placed on a hot stove will always melt, and why compressed gas will always fly out of its container (and never back in) when a valve is opened to the atmosphere.

Only states of equal entropy and energy can be reversibly converted from one to the other. This reversibility condition led to the discovery of thermodynamic processes such as the (idealized) Carnot cycle, which poses an to how efficiently one can convert heat into work, or the other way around, by cycling a closed system through different temperatures and pressures. Our understanding of this process underpinned the rapid economic development during the Western Industrial Revolution.

The beauty of the is its applicability to any macroscopic system, regardless of the microscopic details. In , one of these details may be entanglement: a quantum connection that makes separated components of the system share properties. Intriguingly, shares many profound similarities with thermodynamics, even though quantum systems are mostly studied in the microscopic regime.

Year 2019 face_with_colon_three


For high-cobalt cathodes such as lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) conventional pyrometallurgical (see section ‘Pyrometallurgical recovery’) or hydrometallurgical (see section ‘Hydrometallurgical recovery’) recycling processes can recover around 70% of the cathode value11. However, for other cathode chemistries that are not as cobalt-rich, this figure drops notably11. A 2019 648-lb Nissan Leaf battery, for example, costs US$6,500–8,500 new, but the value of the pure metals in the cathode material is less than US$400 and the cost of the equivalent amount of NMC (an alternative cathode material) is in the region of US$4,000. It is important, therefore, to appreciate that cathode material must be directly recycled (or upcycled) to recover sufficient value. As direct recycling avoids lengthy and expensive purification steps, it could be particularly advantageous for lower-value cathodes such as LiMn2O4 and LiFePO4, where manufacturing of the cathode oxides is the major contributor to cathode costs, embedded energy and carbon dioxide footprint95.

Direct recycling also has the advantage that, in principle, all battery components20 can be recovered and re-used after further processing (with the exclusion of separators). Although there is substantial literature regarding the recycling of the cathode component from spent LIBs, research on recycling of the graphitic anode is limited, owing to its lower recovery value. Nevertheless, the successful re-use of mechanically separated graphite anodes from spent batteries has been demonstrated, with similar properties to that of pristine graphite96.

Despite the potential advantages of direct recycling, however, considerable obstacles remain to be overcome before it can become a practical reality. The efficiency of direct recycling processes is correlated with the state of health of the battery and may not be advantageous where the state of charge is low97. There are also potential issues with the flexibility of these routes to handle metal oxides of different compositions. For maximum efficiency, direct recycling processes must be tailored to specific cathode formulations, necessitating different processes for different cathode materials97. The ten or so years spent in a vehicle—followed, perhaps, by a few more in a second-use application—therefore present a challenge in an industry where battery formulations are evolving at a rapid pace. Direct recycling may struggle to accommodate feedstocks of unknown or poorly characterized provenance, and there will be commercial reluctance to re-use material if product quality is affected.