His relationships are top notch and I have had the pleasure to be offered an introduction. Which has developed into a new relationship and one of both intellectual value but of commonality.

If you are looking for the intellectual promise you will not be disappointed in fact you will be impressed. His vast intellect in multiple topics is a trait of a visionary. And I believe that Andres is just that.

To sum up if your future is in need of clarification and need a well established and respected individual who follows through on his intentions then this is your man. A person of integrity, a future thinker and an accomplished author. I trust you will find his engagement as satisfying as I do.

Of black and white swans: a conversation

« The most fruitful and natural exercise for our minds is, in my opinion, conversation. »
Michel de Montaigne
« The problem is never how to get new innovative thoughts into your mind, BUT HOW TO GET OLD ONES OUT. »
Dee Hock, CEO, VISA Int’l

As explained in the foreword of «The White Swan», Andres Agostini, the author, «is a very generous person and the book he offers us is a very generous book. It is more than a book, in reality. It is a very complete conversation on a very complex subject: Transformative and Integrative Risk Management (TAIRM) — what it is, why it is important, how it works and how it can benefit in a sustainable manner all kind of organizations and their stakeholders.»
This conversation started a while ago with a seemingly straight forward question addressed to Andres by one of his acquaintances, David Shaw. David’s question is presented, at the beginning of the book, in these words:
«… Andres, from your work on the future, which management skills need to be developed? Classically the management role is about planning, organizing, leading and controlling. With the changes coming in the future, what’s your view on how this management mix needs to change and adapt?…» (p.28)
David’s question summarizes the current concern of most managers in the face of permanent change. I ask myself this question every single day, in the face of every single decision I have to make. I submit that all of you reading this review are also looking for an answer to this same question. This is a question that seeks a path towards optimal management, a path that cannot be found without seeking also a path towards optimal risk management, hence the main subject of «The White Swan», Transformative and Integrative Risk Management (TAIRM), a holistic systemic approach that:
«comprises all activities and initiatives required to seize the optimum degree of risk elimination, mitigation, modulation or control within the constraints of operational effectiveness, time, and cost, attained through the specific, systemic and systematic application of management, scientific, engineering and applied mathematical principles throughout all phases and facets of system operation » (p.48)
The question has been put on the table and now it’s Andres’ turn to enrich the conversation. This book is not an easy read, that gives an easy answer, in an easy to understand point form. Be forewarned, Andres’ answer is not an easy one to grasp. It needs the support of many new words, with many new definitions. Why new words and new definitions? Because the answer to David’s question is about finding a path that has not yet been traveled by most of us. The answer cannot be found in our past actions, expressions and ways of thinking.
Albert Einstein once said: « It has become appallingly obvious that our technology has exceeded our humanity … We shall require a substantially new manner of thinking if mankind is to survive ». To that, Peter Drucker added: « The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday’s logic ». The answer Andres has to give must address a new, very complex and very rapidly changing technology-driven world, one that has not been managed before, one for which we have to reinvent ourselves.
In order to give yourself a chance at self-reinvention, you will have to stick to what Andres will say in this book: whatever he says, whatever personal style he uses in doing so, and whatever challenges it will present to you in your search for simple answers. Simple answers really do not exist. So, I sincerely invite you not to be a «bore» JUST YET (« Bore, n.: A person who talks when you wish him to listen. » Ambrose Bierce). This book is Andres’s turn in the conversation. Be patient and take the time to listen to him; keep your prevention and questions till the last page, for he will address most, if not all of them, somewhere in the book. This is what happened to my own prevention and questions while I read through the entire book; this is what will happen to yours. Reading this book is a complete awakening and learning experience. What follows is what I personally awakened to and learned through its pages.

Life is not a bowl of cherries

« Never go to a doctor whose office plants have died. »
Erma Bombeck
« …The future is not a privilege but a perpetual conquest… »
Robert Kennedy

The «Expert» market (books, audiobooks, DVDs, social media, guruships, etc.) is full of people who propose quick fixes to very complex situations. The complexity of our current «permanently changing» contextual realities cannot, however, be understood through simple statements. Their contextual richness can only be rendered through learning about quite a few important, interdependent elements in our own very unique situations. These complex situations question many so-called «universal laws» of management promoted by “experts” or “management gurus”. These same experts and gurus are very suspect: they have never put one foot into your organization or specific situation. To paraphrase Erma Bombeck’s famous bestseller title: « If life is a bowl of cherries, what am I doing in the pits? ». So how anyone, in his right mind, can say he has THE answer for my particular, unique situation, without even being in the pits with me.
The conquest of the future starts in the present. I often tell my workshops’ and courses’ participants that «Chaos Theory 101» simply is: «The future deploys itself from the initial conditions of the present moment ». So, in order to address permanent change and work on the future of my organization (as well as mine), I have to start with my very unique present situation, apply system thinking and engineering, assess this situation thoroughly to uncover all of its elements, be they small or big, separate perceptions and opinions from reality, determine systemic interdependencies between all those elements, look at possible alternative futures, bad or good, and plan my short, medium and long term actions accordingly.
The TAIRM’s approach and methodologies, discussed in this book, will allow you to do exactly that successfully… and to do it again and again, as seen fit, for sustainable organizational growth and enduring success.

«Wēijī» — Opportunity’s false God

« The Chinese use two brush strokes to write the word ‘crisis.’ One brush stroke stands for danger; the other for opportunity. In a crisis, be aware of the danger–but recognize the opportunity. »
John F. Kennedy (1959)

In the above quote, President Kennedy was referring to the Chinese word «wēijī», usually translated as «crisis». This quote has been reused again and again, including by me, to tell people that a crisis is not only a source of danger, it is also a source of opportunity. One might then be tempted to compare the Black Swan (disaster) — White Swan (success) stories presented in Andres’ book, as another version of this interpretation of «wēijī». This book does not embrace this interpretation of the nature of a «crisis», for at the very least one good reason: the word «wēijī» does not mean danger+disaster. A simple Google seach will confirm this.
TAIRM is not about finding opportunity in a crisis. And it is certainly not about using information nor «common wisdom» that will not withstand rigorous investigation and explanation… certainly not information that can be proven false by a simple Google search. TAIRM is about «not having a crisis»; it is about preparing oneself to alleviate, if not eliminate all together, any possibility of a crisis (a black swan), while building the conditions for sustainable success (a white swan). Opportunity is not the complement to risk in a crisis situation, it is its opposite. Opportunity does not usually emerge from a crisis, it aims at preventing it.
TAIRM is not, however, a preventive or a corrective approach per se; it is rather a preemptive «perfective» approach (p. 126). TAIRM aims at preparing an organization’s actions, in the face of changing circumstances; it aims at increasing the organization’s resilience to adverse changes, through the highest possible state of preparedness and readyness. TAIRM is, in fact and by philosophy, perfectly aligned with the conclusions of the research on resilience realized by Robert Collins (Resilience: Protecting your Business from Disasters in a Dangerous World). Hence, one of TAIRM’s main postulates could be stated this way:
« A COMPANY’S ABILITY TO RETURN TO BUSINESS DEPENDS MORE ON THE DECISIONS IT MAKES BEFORE A SHOCK HITS THAN THOSE IT MAKES DURING OR AFTER THE EVENT » (p. 193)

The only workable «standard recipe»

« Biology gives you a brain. Life turns it into a mind. »
Jeffrey Eugenides

TAIRM is an «anti-recipe» approach, or rather an approach that uses the only workable «standard recipe» in the face of an increasingly more complex and permanently changing world and its resulting business environment.
Very often, my clients, students and workshop participants ask me to propose a «standardized all-encompassing approach» for managing their many different projects. To that, I always answer that only workable «standard recipe» to apply to such different endeavors is as follows:
« Each time you face a new project or situation, you sit down, as much as possible WITH ALL CONCERNED STAKEHOLDERS; then you brainstorm on, think about, and analyze and define TOGETHER the situation in order to design collectively the proper course of action ».
I often add, without smiling much, that our many organizational predicaments do not come from lack of gray matter, but rather from lack of using it together.
TAIRM uses the same «standard recipe», harvesting all the gray matter that can possibly be used. This includes the gray matter reflected in many existing, as well as emerging approaches, in whatever way possible, to facilitate analysis, problem-solving and decision making on a given context. So, instead of adopting one approach as the new «recipe» or «fad» of the moment, TAIRM has, as seen fit, adopted, adapted and combined many breakthrough methodologies into its own, as they have emerged and become mainstream at a given moment. As of now, TAIRM has integrated into its approach the best of:
«Proprietary Quality-Assurance Methodologies, Toyota Production System (TPS), Kaisen Methodology, Juran and Deming prescriptions, SixSigma, Lean and LeanSigma Methodologies, Process Re-Engineering Methodology (Conjointly: Los Alamos Labs and Procter and Gamble), Bill Conway’s Methodology, Risk Assessment Methodologies by the U.S. Navy and Hitachi, Several methodologies based on Continuous Improvement, Red-Teaming, Red Adair’s Approach, NSTB’s Go-To Team Approach, as well as a considerable number of CORS Risk Management Services (Andres’ company) proprietary methodologies». (p. 219)
Although TAIRM is ever evolving to adapt to emerging changes, the basic «standard recipe» remains the same: use the gray matter of all concerned, whenever possible. I know this makes sense, even «common sense». If so, why is this «standard recipe» seldom used? Andres’s book does not try to explain why, neither does it pass judgement on this situation. This book is not about opinions and distributing blame. What this book wishes to give you, if you join Andres’ conversation with an open mind, is a very good understanding of what needs to be done to succeed in face of constant change, as well as a willingness to do so, for the sake of all concerned.

«Life» is a many-splendored thing

« There are things known and there are things unknown, and in between are the doors of perception. »
Aldous Huxley
« If the doors of perception were cleansed, everything would appear to man as it is — infinite. »
William Blake
« Songs are as sad as the listener. »
Jonathan Safran Foer

In the previous part of the review, I alluded to, and even put in capital letters, the words: «WITH ALL CONCERNED STAKEHOLDERS» and «TOGETHER».
TAIRM is not about an approach used by an «external expert» to tell you what to do. TAIRM is more about an «awakening to change» process, supported by a very good facilitator/coach (internal or external), helping all concerned, in your organization, to become aligned together. It aims at developping a common understanding of your unique situation, along with a resulting common vision and common plan of action towards securing successful outcomes (what Andres calls «eureka moments»)… and that not only for your sake, but also BEFORE competitors in your field can do it (Andres calls «sputnik moments» those situations where competitors get successful outcomes BEFORE you, with the same impact on your organization, than the one felt by the USA when the USSR launched the first sputnik or sent Gagarine into space).
Andres professes in his book that, to be successful, each manager (you and me) must become «an expert state-of-the-art in-all-practicality generalist and erudite» (p. 205). He tells, however, that you are not alone; you can gain greater knowledge through working things out with multi-disciplinary teams, presenting multiple complementary perspectives. Moreover, Andres warns us against individual super- and over-specialization:
« Overspecialization and superspecialization beget incomplete knowledge and flawed execution. And hence they create many blind spots that beget folly black swans. Because through overspecialization and superspecialization, you are only dealing with Knowledge Depth, but also outright ruling out and precluding advanced Knowledge Width ». (p. 40)
To face complexity, we need BOTH depth AND width of knowledge. TAIRM will ensure that we do so, by conveying diversity and multiple perspectives in the process. This way, individual perceptions and opinions will be shared and confronted with present facts, until a common perception emerges. Once this happens, we can deal with a common reality, which is as close as possible to factual reality… and as far as possible from individual prejudices, preconceptions, perceptions, opinions and emotional biases. We can then all recognize the song we hear together with a similar common emotion, positively challenging the Jonathan Safran Foer’s words quoted above.
Paraphrasing the title of Han Suyin’s book, «Life (love) is a many-splendored thing», TAIRM reminds us of the richness of collaborative endeavors and will help us get the most out of it. Through fostering collective intelligence, TRAIM will increase immensely our ability to create «white swans» and continuous «eureka moments».

Where to go from here? «The way of TAIRM»

« Can you cleanse your vision till there is no blemish? »
Tao Te Ching («The Way of Tao») Verse 10
« Be the change you want to see in the world. »
Mahatma Gandhi

The answer Andres gives to David’s question is very simple, yet revolutionary. As says a popular African proverb: «Tomorrow belongs to the people who prepare for it». In order to do that, «The Way of TAIRM» will ensure you have a very clear vision of what is happening and where you will go. This will be ensured not by looking at the past for answers, but by looking at the present changes… as well as at the early signs of «changes to come» that have already started to emerge in the «here and now».
I believe that at this point, I should let Andres contribute some of the final statements of this review:
«Please remember that “… THE FUTURE IS NOT AN ECHO OF THE PAST…”» and that «“…Here and Now…” is, put simply, the endless entry point into the future». (p. 106 and p. 156)
Andres’ final answer to David’s question is summarized in these very few words:
«Given your clever question, David, and commented simply to you: “…I am no longer a captive to history. Whatever I can imagine, I can accomplish. I am no longer a vassal in a faceless bureaucracy. I am an activist, not a drone. I am no longer a foot soldier in the march of progress. I am a Revolutionary! … (from Gary Hamel’s Leading the Revolution)”» (p 231).
…Bluntly put: To succeed in the present times, you have to reinvent yourself, as a manager and as a leader. You have to stop looking at the past for answers; you have to face the «here and now» and yourself «become the change».
While answering with much detail, Andres does not explain all the nuts and bolts of the TAIRM approach; parts of it are proprietary and cannot be revealed in a public document. That being said, it would be presumptuous to believe that reading a book would provide you with all the winning conditions to execute TAIRM. You need support and coaching to do that, at least for a first few times. You cannot reinvent yourself, nor your organization, without being challenged by an external perspective. Nonetheless, the book generously reveals to you the following:
• A suggested step-by-step management ROADMAP to put in place the conditions to create «white swans» (page 228 ss)
• A proposed reading list to get you to learn more about many of the principles presented in the book (231ss). (To this list, I would add «Managing the Unexpected: Resilient Performance in an Age of Uncertainty, 2nd edition, by Karl E. Weick and Kathleen M. Sutcliffe», probably the only book besides «The White Swan» that properly addresses the «unexpected»)
• A 72 point blueprint for any manager aiming at succeeding in the face of continuous change. (p.233 ss)
Finally, in a nutshell, this book is about creating «white swans» and achieving the resulting «sustainable success». But these are no easy tasks. One might prefer denial or delay to action. However, both are very dangerous choices in the current circumstances, according to Gary Hamel (“the world’s leading expert on business strategy”, according to Fortune Magazine), who once wrote that: «Denial is tragic. Delay is deadly».
This ends «A» review of the book, mine, the one I wrote after listening to Andres’ answer; an answer given not only to David, but also to all of us. Just go into action now, the first steps being to read this book, share its content and write your own collective review of this revolutionary book… a collective review that will change your organization’s present and future into a continuous stream of extraordinary, successful, sustainable eureka moments, populated by elegant white swans.

Montréal, Qc, Canada, May 2014

Claude Emond, BEng, MEng, MBA, rmc, CD, PMP
International Organizational Agility and AgiLean Project Management Expert
Awekener, Coach, Teacher, Trainer and Creator of the «Changeboxing» Process

In Science and Technology, in integration of Consciousness, expanding the Scientific view point to include “out of the box thinking” for practical application which is needed for humanities expansion, survival and sustaining knowledge, Mr. Andres clearly writes for the benefit of all life on the planet, he also considers humanities Vision of the Future, of Space and new Sciences.

I recommend Mr. Andres Agostini highly, as a Colleague and Friend, a prolific writer with a keen eye to expand for the greater good all subjects he approaches, it is an honor to know him. ~ Dr. Diane M. Rousseau”

“ … Mr. Andres Agostini’s brilliance is well documented …. In the field of insurance, risk management, etc. Mr. Agostini combines critical thinking with multiple areas of experience using a variety of platforms. His ethics are beyond question. Mr. Agostini provides solutions to problems others would not even begin to tackle …. Andres Agostini is one of the brightest minds I have ever encountered. Mr. Agostini possesses a dearth of expertise and experience in numerous fields. There is no task or endeavor that Mr. Agostini cannot successfully undertake and complete with ease. I would highly recommend that in the numerous areas that Mr. Agostini has worked in that his expertise be fully utilized. His thought processes are far superior to anybody I have ever met or that you will ever meet. Thank you …”